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Ligue 1
Le Havre
1–5Finished
Paris Saint Germain
Fri 30 Oct 2026 · 18:00 GMTMatchday 9 · Stade Océane, Le Havre

Le Havre v Paris Saint Germain match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Fri 30 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

PSG face Le Havre in a clash between contrasting recent form: the model gives PSG a 73% chance of victory with an expected goals gap of 1.64 in their favour. Both teams face injury issues that could affect their starting lineups and performance.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 10%Le Havre win
  • 17%Draw
  • 73%Paris Saint Germain win

PRO analysis

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PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Le HavreLe Havre

Last 5: no wins, 1 draw, 4 defeats

  1. lost3–4at Marseille
  2. lost1–3v Auxerre
  3. lost0–1at Lille
  4. lost2–3at Toulouse
  5. drew0–0v Angers
Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain

Last 5: 5 wins, no draws, no defeats

  1. won2–0v Lyon
  2. won4–2v Barcelona
  3. won3–1at Strasbourg
  4. won4–2at Manchester City
  5. won3–1v Le Mans

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Le Havre won 12 of 21 matches in which they scored first, since 3 Nov 2024.
  • Ligue 1, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 183 of 235.
  • Paris Saint Germain won 5 of the last 6 meetings.
  • Paris Saint Germain unbeaten in their last 5 away games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

6 meetings: Le Havre 0, draws 1, Paris Saint Germain 5

Goals: Le Havre 5, Paris Saint Germain 15

DateMatchScore
28 Feb 2026Le Havre v Paris Saint Germain0–1
22 Nov 2025Paris Saint Germain v Le Havre3–0
19 Apr 2025Paris Saint Germain v Le Havre2–1
16 Aug 2024Le Havre v Paris Saint Germain1–4
27 Apr 2024Paris Saint Germain v Le Havre3–3
3 Dec 2023Le Havre v Paris Saint Germain0–2

Home and away

Le Havre

Le Havre at home

Last 5: 0 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost

  • LostAuxerre18 Oct 20261–3
  • DrawnAngers12 Sep 20260–0
  • LostStade Brestois 295 Sep 20261–2
  • LostMonaco23 Aug 20260–1
  • LostMarseille10 May 20260–1

Le Havre: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
9 scored, 14 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
Paris Saint Germain

Paris Saint Germain away

Last 5: 4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonStrasbourg17 Oct 20263–1
  • WonManchester CityUEFA Champions League14 Oct 20264–2
  • WonMarseille20 Sep 20262–1
  • WonStade Brestois 2913 Sep 20261–0
  • DrawnLille28 Aug 20262–2

Paris Saint Germain: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
21 scored, 8 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
5 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Le Havre
Last match
5 days before25 Oct 2026 · v Marseille · Ligue 1
Next match
9 days after8 Nov 2026 · v Lorient · Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain
Last match
4 days before26 Oct 2026 · v Lyon · Ligue 1
Next match
4 days after3 Nov 2026 · v Villarreal · UEFA Champions League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 3 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Le Havre

ScoreLe HavreLeague sides
Scored first12 won, 7 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches642 won, 168 drawn, 115 lost in 925 matches
Conceded first3 won, 7 drawn, 30 lost in 40 matches115 won, 168 drawn, 642 lost in 925 matches
Level at half-time8 won, 14 drawn, 10 lost in 32 matches256 won, 282 drawn, 256 lost in 794 matches
Level after 60 minutes6 won, 16 drawn, 5 lost in 27 matches178 won, 288 drawn, 178 lost in 644 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes2 won, 3 drawn, 17 lost in 22 matches31 won, 84 drawn, 315 lost in 430 matches
Level after 70 minutes6 won, 16 drawn, 4 lost in 26 matches143 won, 304 drawn, 143 lost in 590 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes1 won, 2 drawn, 17 lost in 20 matches22 won, 80 drawn, 320 lost in 422 matches
Level after 80 minutes5 won, 15 drawn, 4 lost in 24 matches120 won, 342 drawn, 120 lost in 582 matches
Level after 15 minutes10 won, 14 drawn, 21 lost in 45 matches519 won, 362 drawn, 519 lost in 1400 matches
Level after 30 minutes7 won, 12 drawn, 14 lost in 33 matches354 won, 320 drawn, 354 lost in 1028 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes2 won, 5 drawn, 15 lost in 22 matches62 won, 70 drawn, 267 lost in 399 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreLe HavreLeague sides
All matches18 scored, 24 conceded (67)663 scored, 663 conceded (1992)
When level after 75 minutes4 scored, 5 conceded (22)160 scored, 160 conceded (566)
When trailing after 75 minutes13 scored, 11 conceded (30)225 scored, 278 conceded (713)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 42 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 15(league sides: 1,078 times, within 15 minutes 164, by full time 473)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

Le HavreParis Saint Germain
67Since 3 Nov 2024Matches with xG67Since 2 Nov 2024
85.28xG for156.76
73Goals scored154
112.92xG against64.48
110Goals conceded65

Le Havre

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Le Havre: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
25 Oct 2026at Marseille3.161.633–4
18 Oct 2026v Auxerre1.402.701–3
10 Oct 2026at Lille1.281.260–1
19 Sep 2026at Toulouse2.341.952–3
12 Sep 2026v Angers1.310.590–0
5 Sep 2026v Stade Brestois 292.022.371–2
29 Aug 2026at Lyon0.691.751–1
23 Aug 2026v Monaco0.601.390–1
17 May 2026at Lorient1.251.302–0
10 May 2026v Marseille1.141.210–1

Paris Saint Germain

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Paris Saint Germain: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
26 Oct 2026v Lyon1.040.712–0
17 Oct 2026at Strasbourg2.751.553–1
10 Oct 2026v Le Mans4.251.433–1
20 Sep 2026at Marseille4.331.802–1
13 Sep 2026at Stade Brestois 291.161.241–0
4 Sep 2026v Monaco2.320.511–2
28 Aug 2026at Lille1.441.272–2
23 Aug 2026at Rennes2.160.872–2
17 May 2026at Paris FC0.612.201–2
13 May 2026at Lens1.222.872–0

This league season

Ligue 1 matches since 21 Aug 2026.

Le HavreParis Saint Germain
8 of 8Matches with xG8 of 8
2Points in those matches17
10.44xPts16.25
12.80xG for19.45
13.64xG against9.38

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • Le HavreLe Havre
    Ruled out
    E. Jelert (Thigh Injury) · F. Mambimbi (Achilles Tendon Injury) · L. Mpasi-Nzau (Achilles Tendon Injury) · T. Pembele (Muscle Injury) · A. Toure (Knee Injury) · S. Zagadou (Knee Injury)
  • Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
    Ruled out
    O. Dembele (Thigh Injury) · K. Kvaratskhelia (Knee Injury) · A. Longoni (Injury) · Marquinhos (Thigh Injury) · N. Mendes (Muscle Injury)

Published 30 Oct 2026, 16:57 GMT · not changed since

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