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Ligue 1
Toulouse
19:45
Strasbourg
Fri 6 Nov 2026 · GMTMatchday 10 · Stadium Municipal, Toulouse

Toulouse v Strasbourg · analysis and preview

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Most likely: Toulouse win

Toulouse host Strasbourg in a tight contest where the model gives the home side a 39% chance of winning, with draws at 26% and Strasbourg at 35%. Toulouse have won two of five recent matches, while Strasbourg have lost four in a row. Expected goals are 1.51 and 1.43, suggesting a close encounter with a gap of 0.08 in Toulouse's favour.

How the match could end · our estimate

  • 39%Toulouse win
  • 26%Draw
  • 35%Strasbourg win

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Form · newest first

ToulouseToulouse

Last 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat

  1. lost0–2at Marseille
  2. drew0–0v Estac Troyes
  3. won3–0at Le Mans
  4. drew2–2at Monaco
  5. won3–2v Le Havre
StrasbourgStrasbourg

Last 5: 1 win, no draws, 4 defeats

  1. won5–1v Auxerre
  2. lost0–3at Rennes
  3. lost1–3v Paris Saint Germain
  4. lost1–2at Nice
  5. lost1–2at Paris FC

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Toulouse won 19 of 26 matches in which they scored first, since 10 Nov 2024.
  • Ligue 1, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 186 of 238.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 8 of Strasbourg's last 10 away league games.
  • Both teams scored in 7 of Strasbourg's last 10 away league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

8 meetings: Toulouse 3, draws 2, Strasbourg 3

Goals: Toulouse 9, Strasbourg 10

DateMatchScore
3 May 2026Strasbourg v Toulouse1–2
6 Dec 2025Toulouse v Strasbourg1–0
16 Mar 2025Strasbourg v Toulouse2–1
12 Jan 2025Toulouse v Strasbourg1–2
7 Apr 2024Toulouse v Strasbourg0–0
27 Aug 2023Strasbourg v Toulouse2–0
29 Jan 2023Strasbourg v Toulouse1–2
23 Oct 2022Toulouse v Strasbourg2–2

Home and away

Toulouse

Toulouse at home

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • DrawnEstac Troyes25 Oct 20260–0
  • WonLe Havre19 Sep 20263–2
  • LostLille3 Sep 20260–1
  • LostLyon22 Aug 20260–2
  • WonLyon10 May 20262–1

Toulouse: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
9 scored, 14 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
4 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
Strasbourg

Strasbourg away

Last 5: 1 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost

  • LostRennes25 Oct 20260–3
  • LostNice11 Oct 20261–2
  • LostParis FC19 Sep 20261–2
  • WonEstac Troyes6 Sep 20266–2
  • LostMarseille21 Aug 20260–4

Strasbourg: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
17 scored, 19 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
8 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Toulouse
Last match
5 days before1 Nov 2026 · v Marseille · Ligue 1
Next match
Not known
Strasbourg
Last match
5 days before1 Nov 2026 · v Auxerre · Ligue 1
Next match
Not known

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 10 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Toulouse

ScoreToulouseLeague sides
Scored first19 won, 3 drawn, 4 lost in 26 matches650 won, 168 drawn, 116 lost in 934 matches
Conceded first3 won, 10 drawn, 22 lost in 35 matches116 won, 168 drawn, 650 lost in 934 matches
Level at half-time9 won, 9 drawn, 10 lost in 28 matches258 won, 282 drawn, 258 lost in 798 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes1 won, 6 drawn, 16 lost in 23 matches31 won, 84 drawn, 317 lost in 432 matches
Level after 70 minutes6 won, 12 drawn, 4 lost in 22 matches144 won, 304 drawn, 144 lost in 592 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes1 won, 5 drawn, 16 lost in 22 matches22 won, 80 drawn, 324 lost in 426 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes1 won, 7 drawn, 19 lost in 27 matches8 won, 66 drawn, 323 lost in 397 matches
Level after 15 minutes15 won, 15 drawn, 20 lost in 50 matches527 won, 362 drawn, 527 lost in 1416 matches
Level after 30 minutes9 won, 13 drawn, 14 lost in 36 matches361 won, 320 drawn, 361 lost in 1042 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreToulouseLeague sides
All matches27 scored, 18 conceded (66)668 scored, 668 conceded (2010)
When trailing after 75 minutes13 scored, 10 conceded (30)225 scored, 282 conceded (721)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 42 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 20(league sides: 1,088 times, within 15 minutes 166, by full time 475)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

ToulouseStrasbourg
66Since 10 Nov 2024Matches with xG67Since 9 Nov 2024
95.25xG for98.43
92Goals scored112
84.57xG against101.67
91Goals conceded91

Toulouse

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Toulouse: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
1 Nov 2026at Marseille1.921.330–2
25 Oct 2026v Estac Troyes0.880.410–0
16 Oct 2026at Le Mans1.830.983–0
10 Oct 2026at Monaco1.431.172–2
19 Sep 2026v Le Havre1.952.343–2
12 Sep 2026at Lorient1.630.932–2
3 Sep 2026v Lille3.461.210–1
29 Aug 2026at Stade Brestois 291.143.042–2
22 Aug 2026v Lyon2.770.700–2
10 May 2026v Lyon1.131.542–1

Strasbourg

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Strasbourg: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
1 Nov 2026v Auxerre3.150.505–1
25 Oct 2026at Rennes0.942.000–3
17 Oct 2026v Paris Saint Germain1.552.751–3
11 Oct 2026at Nice0.631.251–2
19 Sep 2026at Paris FC0.241.051–2
12 Sep 2026v Monaco1.021.051–1
6 Sep 2026at Estac Troyes2.952.946–2
29 Aug 2026v Lens1.832.912–1
21 Aug 2026at Marseille0.181.860–4
17 May 2026v Monaco1.501.135–4

This league season

Ligue 1 matches since 21 Aug 2026.

ToulouseStrasbourg
9 of 9Matches with xG9 of 9
10Points in those matches10
15.55xPts9.55
17.01xG for12.49
12.11xG against16.31

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Toulouse and Strasbourg

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • ToulouseToulouse
    Ruled out
    A. Donnum (Yellow Cards) · R. Messali (Thigh Injury)
    Doubtful
    M. Niflore (Knee Injury)
  • StrasbourgStrasbourg
    Ruled out
    J. Panichelli (Knee Injury)
    Doubtful
    F. Balde (Leg Injury)

Updated 6 Nov 2026, 18:42 GMT

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