LEDGER
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Ligue 1
Nice
5–2Finished
Rennes
Fri 30 Oct 2026 · 18:00 GMTMatchday 9 · Allianz Riviera, Nice

Nice v Rennes match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Fri 30 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 34%Nice win
  • 26%Draw
  • 40%Rennes win

PRO analysis

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PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

NiceNice

Last 5: 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats

  1. won2–1at Stade Brestois 29
  2. lost1–2at Lyon
  3. won2–1v Strasbourg
  4. won2–1v Lille
  5. lost0–1at Auxerre
RennesRennes

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

  1. won3–0v Strasbourg
  2. drew2–2at Juventus
  3. lost3–4at Paris FC
  4. won2–1v OFI
  5. won4–1v Auxerre

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Nice won 23 of 37 matches in which they scored first, since 2 Nov 2024.
  • Rennes won 28 of 37 matches in which they scored first, since 3 Nov 2024.
  • Nice won 5 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Nice unbeaten in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Nice 5, draws 1, Rennes 4

Goals: Nice 13, Rennes 16

DateMatchScore
8 Mar 2026Nice v Rennes0–4
26 Oct 2025Rennes v Nice1–2
10 May 2025Rennes v Nice2–0
3 Jan 2025Nice v Rennes3–2
13 Jan 2024Rennes v Nice2–0
5 Nov 2023Nice v Rennes2–0
6 May 2023Nice v Rennes2–1
2 Jan 2023Rennes v Nice2–1
2 Apr 2022Nice v Rennes1–1
12 Dec 2021Rennes v Nice1–2

Home and away

Nice

Nice at home

Last 5: 3 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonStrasbourg11 Oct 20262–1
  • WonLille20 Sep 20262–1
  • DrawnLe Mans5 Sep 20261–1
  • DrawnLorient22 Aug 20260–0
  • WonSaint Etienne29 May 20264–1

Nice: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
11 scored, 14 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
Rennes

Rennes away

Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost

  • DrawnJuventusUEFA Europa League22 Oct 20262–2
  • LostParis FC18 Oct 20263–4
  • LostLyon19 Sep 20260–4
  • DrawnSturm GrazUEFA Europa League16 Sep 20260–0
  • WonAngers6 Sep 20262–1

Rennes: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
23 scored, 22 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
10 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Nice
Last match
7 days before23 Oct 2026 · v Stade Brestois 29 · Ligue 1
Next match
9 days after8 Nov 2026 · v Angers · Ligue 1
Rennes
Last match
5 days before25 Oct 2026 · v Strasbourg · Ligue 1
Next match
5 days after4 Nov 2026 · v Olympiakos Piraeus · UEFA Europa League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Nice

Since 2 Nov 2024

ScoreNiceLeague sides
Scored first23 won, 7 drawn, 7 lost in 37 matches642 won, 168 drawn, 115 lost in 925 matches
Conceded first3 won, 9 drawn, 30 lost in 42 matches115 won, 168 drawn, 642 lost in 925 matches
1 goal up at half-time12 won, 7 drawn, 3 lost in 22 matches317 won, 85 drawn, 43 lost in 445 matches
Level at half-time7 won, 9 drawn, 10 lost in 26 matches256 won, 282 drawn, 256 lost in 794 matches
1 goal down at half-time2 won, 4 drawn, 15 lost in 21 matches43 won, 85 drawn, 317 lost in 445 matches
Level after 60 minutes4 won, 11 drawn, 12 lost in 27 matches178 won, 288 drawn, 178 lost in 644 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes0 won, 7 drawn, 13 lost in 20 matches22 won, 80 drawn, 320 lost in 422 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes0 won, 5 drawn, 17 lost in 22 matches8 won, 66 drawn, 321 lost in 395 matches
Level after 15 minutes17 won, 16 drawn, 24 lost in 57 matches519 won, 362 drawn, 519 lost in 1400 matches
Level after 30 minutes11 won, 12 drawn, 20 lost in 43 matches354 won, 320 drawn, 354 lost in 1028 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreNiceLeague sides
All matches21 scored, 24 conceded (84)663 scored, 663 conceded (1992)
When leading after 75 minutes11 scored, 9 conceded (29)278 scored, 225 conceded (713)
When trailing after 75 minutes8 scored, 9 conceded (37)225 scored, 278 conceded (713)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 51 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 19(league sides: 1,078 times, within 15 minutes 164, by full time 473)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Rennes

Since 3 Nov 2024

ScoreRennesLeague sides
Scored first28 won, 5 drawn, 4 lost in 37 matches642 won, 168 drawn, 115 lost in 925 matches
Conceded first5 won, 3 drawn, 22 lost in 30 matches115 won, 168 drawn, 642 lost in 925 matches
Level at half-time8 won, 6 drawn, 7 lost in 21 matches256 won, 282 drawn, 256 lost in 794 matches
Level after 15 minutes17 won, 8 drawn, 14 lost in 39 matches519 won, 362 drawn, 519 lost in 1400 matches
Level after 30 minutes12 won, 7 drawn, 12 lost in 31 matches354 won, 320 drawn, 354 lost in 1028 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreRennesLeague sides
All matches28 scored, 24 conceded (70)663 scored, 663 conceded (1992)
When leading after 75 minutes12 scored, 6 conceded (29)278 scored, 225 conceded (713)
When trailing after 75 minutes9 scored, 11 conceded (24)225 scored, 278 conceded (713)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 35 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 14(league sides: 1,078 times, within 15 minutes 164, by full time 473)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

NiceRennes
67Since 2 Nov 2024Matches with xG67Since 3 Nov 2024
99.63xG for108.42
93Goals scored115
103.08xG against106.54
102Goals conceded102

Nice

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Nice: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
23 Oct 2026at Stade Brestois 290.502.572–1
18 Oct 2026at Lyon1.611.601–2
11 Oct 2026v Strasbourg1.250.632–1
20 Sep 2026v Lille1.501.582–1
12 Sep 2026at Auxerre1.081.740–1
5 Sep 2026v Le Mans1.121.281–1
30 Aug 2026at Paris FC0.782.380–3
22 Aug 2026v Lorient1.051.280–0
17 May 2026v Metz1.640.850–0
10 May 2026at Auxerre1.330.841–2

Rennes

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Rennes: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
25 Oct 2026v Strasbourg2.000.943–0
18 Oct 2026at Paris FC3.353.623–4
11 Oct 2026v Auxerre2.561.764–1
19 Sep 2026at Lyon1.373.130–4
11 Sep 2026v Marseille1.881.341–0
6 Sep 2026at Angers1.541.662–1
30 Aug 2026v Le Mans3.123.063–2
23 Aug 2026v Paris Saint Germain0.872.162–2
17 May 2026at Marseille2.492.921–3
10 May 2026v Paris FC1.771.202–1

Nice: 2 without xG left out

This league season

Ligue 1 matches since 21 Aug 2026.

NiceRennes
8 of 8Matches with xG8 of 8
11Points in those matches16
8.70xPts10.86
8.89xG for16.69
13.06xG against17.67

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Nice and Rennes

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • NiceNice
    Ruled out
    L. Abergel (Knee Injury) · M. Bombito (Leg Injury) · A. Mendy (Knee Injury) · A. Seidu (Loan agreement)
    Doubtful
    A. Abdi (Muscle Injury)
  • RennesRennes
    Ruled out
    E. Lepaul (Ankle Injury) · B. Samba (Thigh Injury)

Published 30 Oct 2026, 16:58 GMT · not changed since

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