Stade Brestois 29 v Lyon · analysis and preview
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Most likely: Lyon win
Lyon hold a 40% chance of victory to Brest's 33%, with a 27% draw probability. Expected goals total 2.79 with a 0.15 gap in Lyon's favour. Brest are unbeaten at home recently (WLDWL), while Lyon have steadied themselves (DWLLW); head-to-head slightly favours Lyon with two 2-1 wins and a recent 0-0 draw.
How the match could end · our estimate
- 33%Stade Brestois 29 win
- 27%Draw
- 40%Lyon win
PRO analysis
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Form · newest first
Stade Brestois 29Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats
- won2–0at Lorient
- lost1–2v Nice
- drew1–1at Lille
- won5–1v Angers
- lost1–2at Auxerre
LyonLast 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats
- drew1–1at Real Sociedad
- won2–0v Angers
- lost0–2at Paris Saint Germain
- lost0–3at 1899 Hoffenheim
- won2–1v Nice
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Stade Brestois 29 won 24 of 38 matches in which they scored first, since 10 Nov 2024.
- Lyon won 43 of 55 matches in which they scored first, since 10 Nov 2024.
- Lyon won 4 of the last 10 meetings.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Stade Brestois 29's last 10 home league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
10 meetings: Stade Brestois 29 3, draws 3, Lyon 4
Goals: Stade Brestois 29 13, Lyon 15
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Jan 2026 | Lyon v Stade Brestois 29 | 2–1 |
| 2 Nov 2025 | Stade Brestois 29 v Lyon | 0–0 |
| 2 Mar 2025 | Lyon v Stade Brestois 29 | 2–1 |
| 11 Jan 2025 | Stade Brestois 29 v Lyon | 2–1 |
| 14 Apr 2024 | Lyon v Stade Brestois 29 | 4–3 |
| 23 Sep 2023 | Stade Brestois 29 v Lyon | 1–0 |
| 1 Feb 2023 | Lyon v Stade Brestois 29 | 0–0 |
| 28 Dec 2022 | Stade Brestois 29 v Lyon | 2–4 |
| 20 Apr 2022 | Stade Brestois 29 v Lyon | 2–1 |
| 7 Aug 2021 | Lyon v Stade Brestois 29 | 1–1 |
Home and away
Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29 at home
Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost
- LostNice23 Oct 20261–2
- WonAngers10 Oct 20265–1
- LostParis Saint Germain13 Sep 20260–1
- DrawnToulouse29 Aug 20262–2
- DrawnAngers17 May 20261–1
Stade Brestois 29: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 20 scored, 16 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 7 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
LyonLyon away
Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost
- DrawnReal SociedadUEFA Europa League5 Nov 20261–1
- LostParis Saint Germain26 Oct 20260–2
- Lost1899 HoffenheimUEFA Europa League22 Oct 20260–3
- LostLens9 Oct 20261–2
- WonAnderlechtUEFA Europa League16 Sep 20262–1
Lyon: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 9 scored, 13 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Stade Brestois 29- Last match
- 6 days before2 Nov 2026 · v Lorient · Ligue 1
- Next match
- 13 days after21 Nov 2026 · v Strasbourg · Ligue 1
Lyon- Last match
- 3 days before5 Nov 2026 · v Real Sociedad · UEFA Europa League
- Next match
- 13 days after21 Nov 2026 · v Lille · Ligue 1
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 10 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Stade Brestois 29
| Score | Stade Brestois 29 | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 24 won, 7 drawn, 7 lost in 38 matches | 650 won, 168 drawn, 116 lost in 934 matches |
| Conceded first | 1 won, 5 drawn, 25 lost in 31 matches | 116 won, 168 drawn, 650 lost in 934 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 14 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost in 20 matches | 321 won, 85 drawn, 43 lost in 449 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 3 won, 13 drawn, 4 lost in 20 matches | 121 won, 342 drawn, 121 lost in 584 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 16 won, 8 drawn, 18 lost in 42 matches | 527 won, 362 drawn, 527 lost in 1416 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 9 won, 8 drawn, 8 lost in 25 matches | 361 won, 320 drawn, 361 lost in 1042 matches |
| 1 goal down after 30 minutes | 1 won, 3 drawn, 17 lost in 21 matches | 62 won, 70 drawn, 268 lost in 400 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Stade Brestois 29 | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 18 scored, 31 conceded (73) | 668 scored, 668 conceded (2010) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 7 conceded (25) | 282 scored, 225 conceded (721) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 5 scored, 17 conceded (30) | 225 scored, 282 conceded (721) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 42 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 15(league sides: 1,088 times, within 15 minutes 166, by full time 475)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Lyon
| Score | Lyon | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 43 won, 6 drawn, 6 lost in 55 matches | 650 won, 168 drawn, 116 lost in 934 matches |
| Conceded first | 7 won, 5 drawn, 19 lost in 31 matches | 116 won, 168 drawn, 650 lost in 934 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 19 won, 4 drawn, 5 lost in 28 matches | 321 won, 85 drawn, 43 lost in 449 matches |
| Level at half-time | 19 won, 11 drawn, 6 lost in 36 matches | 258 won, 282 drawn, 258 lost in 798 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 23 won, 2 drawn, 5 lost in 30 matches | 317 won, 84 drawn, 31 lost in 432 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 10 won, 13 drawn, 5 lost in 28 matches | 180 won, 288 drawn, 180 lost in 648 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 70 minutes | 21 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost in 22 matches | 276 won, 7 drawn, 0 lost in 283 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 20 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost in 24 matches | 324 won, 80 drawn, 22 lost in 426 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 8 won, 12 drawn, 4 lost in 24 matches | 144 won, 304 drawn, 144 lost in 592 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 80 minutes | 25 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 25 matches | 314 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost in 316 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 18 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost in 22 matches | 323 won, 66 drawn, 8 lost in 397 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 7 won, 13 drawn, 4 lost in 24 matches | 121 won, 342 drawn, 121 lost in 584 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 32 won, 15 drawn, 18 lost in 65 matches | 527 won, 362 drawn, 527 lost in 1416 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 16 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost in 22 matches | 268 won, 70 drawn, 62 lost in 400 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 22 won, 12 drawn, 14 lost in 48 matches | 361 won, 320 drawn, 361 lost in 1042 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Lyon | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 42 scored, 31 conceded (93) | 668 scored, 668 conceded (2010) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 16 scored, 16 conceded (47) | 282 scored, 225 conceded (721) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 12 scored, 6 conceded (22) | 161 scored, 161 conceded (568) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 14 scored, 9 conceded (24) | 225 scored, 282 conceded (721) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 37 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 19(league sides: 1,088 times, within 15 minutes 166, by full time 475)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 10 Nov 2024
| Stade Brestois 29 | Lyon | |
|---|---|---|
| 67 | Matches with xG | 67 |
| 97.24 | xG for | 111.06 |
| 98 | Goals scored | 116 |
| 103.05 | xG against | 88.03 |
| 110 | Goals conceded | 78 |
Stade Brestois 29
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov 2026 | at Lorient | 1.33 | 1.78 | 2–0 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | v Nice | 2.57 | 0.50 | 1–2 |
| 17 Oct 2026 | at Lille | 0.84 | 2.25 | 1–1 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | v Angers | 3.82 | 1.39 | 5–1 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | at Auxerre | 0.34 | 0.96 | 1–2 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | v Paris Saint Germain | 1.24 | 1.16 | 0–1 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at Le Havre | 2.37 | 2.02 | 2–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v Toulouse | 3.04 | 1.14 | 2–2 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Le Mans | 2.72 | 0.67 | 2–2 |
| 17 May 2026 | v Angers | 1.57 | 0.68 | 1–1 |
Lyon
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Nov 2026 | v Angers | 2.44 | 0.81 | 2–0 |
| 26 Oct 2026 | at Paris Saint Germain | 0.71 | 1.04 | 0–2 |
| 18 Oct 2026 | v Nice | 1.60 | 1.61 | 2–1 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | at Lens | 1.04 | 1.34 | 1–2 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Rennes | 3.13 | 1.37 | 4–0 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Paris FC | 0.50 | 0.30 | 0–0 |
| 4 Sep 2026 | v Auxerre | 2.85 | 0.71 | 3–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v Le Havre | 1.75 | 0.69 | 1–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Toulouse | 0.70 | 2.77 | 2–0 |
| 17 May 2026 | v Lens | 1.91 | 1.54 | 0–4 |
This league season
Ligue 1 matches since 21 Aug 2026.
| Stade Brestois 29 | Lyon | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 of 9 | Matches with xG | 9 of 9 |
| 12 | Points in those matches | 17 |
| 15.47 | xPts | 14.72 |
| 18.27 | xG for | 14.72 |
| 11.87 | xG against | 10.64 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Stade Brestois 29 and Lyon
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Team news not available yet.
Updated 7 Nov 2026, 16:23 GMT
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