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Ligue 1
Paris FC
3–1Finished
Monaco
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 16:15 GMTMatchday 9 · Stade Jean-Bouin, Paris

Paris FC v Monaco match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 1 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

The model gives Paris a 39% chance to win this Ligue 1 encounter, with Monaco at 34% and a draw at 27%. Expected goals favour Paris slightly at 1.42 to 1.36, with a combined total of 2.78. Both teams are dealing with injuries, though Paris have a head-to-head advantage after winning 4-1 at home six months ago, before losing 0-1 away more recently.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 39%Paris FC win
  • 27%Draw
  • 34%Monaco win

PRO analysis

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Paris FCParis FC

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

  1. lost1–2at Lens
  2. won4–3v Rennes
  3. lost0–1at Lorient
  4. won2–1v Strasbourg
  5. drew0–0v Lyon
MonacoMonaco

Last 5: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 defeat

  1. drew1–1v Lille
  2. lost0–1at Lorient
  3. drew2–2v Toulouse
  4. won2–1v Lens
  5. drew1–1at Strasbourg

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Ligue 1, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 184 of 236.
  • Monaco won 28 of 39 matches in which they scored first, since 1 Nov 2024.
  • Paris FC unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Paris FC's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

2 meetings: Paris FC 2, draws 0, Monaco 0

Goals: Paris FC 5, Monaco 1

DateMatchScore
10 Apr 2026Paris FC v Monaco4–1
1 Nov 2025Monaco v Paris FC0–1

Home and away

Paris FC

Paris FC at home

Last 5: 4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonRennes18 Oct 20264–3
  • WonStrasbourg19 Sep 20262–1
  • DrawnLyon12 Sep 20260–0
  • WonNice30 Aug 20263–0
  • WonParis Saint Germain17 May 20262–1

Paris FC: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
23 scored, 9 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10
Monaco

Monaco away

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • LostLorient18 Oct 20260–1
  • WonCSKA SofiaUEFA Europa Conference League15 Oct 20262–1
  • DrawnStrasbourg12 Sep 20261–1
  • WonParis Saint Germain4 Sep 20262–1
  • WonLe Havre23 Aug 20261–0

Monaco: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
18 scored, 17 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Paris FC
Last match
8 days before24 Oct 2026 · v Lens · Ligue 1
Next match
6 days after7 Nov 2026 · v Auxerre · Ligue 1
Monaco
Last match
7 days before25 Oct 2026 · v Lille · Ligue 1
Next match
4 days after5 Nov 2026 · v FC Nordsjaelland · UEFA Europa Conference League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Paris FC

Since 17 Aug 2025

ScoreParis FCLeague sides
Level after 15 minutes10 won, 12 drawn, 12 lost in 34 matches523 won, 362 drawn, 523 lost in 1408 matches
Level after 30 minutes3 won, 11 drawn, 7 lost in 21 matches357 won, 320 drawn, 357 lost in 1034 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreParis FCLeague sides
All matches18 scored, 16 conceded (42)664 scored, 664 conceded (2000)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 21 times, equalised within 15 minutes 3, by full time 10(league sides: 1,083 times, within 15 minutes 166, by full time 475)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Monaco

Since 1 Nov 2024

ScoreMonacoLeague sides
Scored first28 won, 6 drawn, 5 lost in 39 matches645 won, 168 drawn, 116 lost in 929 matches
Conceded first8 won, 8 drawn, 23 lost in 39 matches116 won, 168 drawn, 645 lost in 929 matches
1 goal up at half-time15 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost in 21 matches319 won, 85 drawn, 43 lost in 447 matches
Level at half-time12 won, 9 drawn, 10 lost in 31 matches257 won, 282 drawn, 257 lost in 796 matches
1 goal down at half-time6 won, 5 drawn, 9 lost in 20 matches43 won, 85 drawn, 319 lost in 447 matches
Level after 60 minutes9 won, 12 drawn, 9 lost in 30 matches179 won, 288 drawn, 179 lost in 646 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes15 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches321 won, 80 drawn, 22 lost in 423 matches
Level after 70 minutes9 won, 12 drawn, 7 lost in 28 matches144 won, 304 drawn, 144 lost in 592 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes15 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 20 matches321 won, 66 drawn, 8 lost in 395 matches
Level after 80 minutes7 won, 14 drawn, 8 lost in 29 matches121 won, 342 drawn, 121 lost in 584 matches
Level after 15 minutes24 won, 15 drawn, 21 lost in 60 matches523 won, 362 drawn, 523 lost in 1408 matches
Level after 30 minutes22 won, 10 drawn, 15 lost in 47 matches357 won, 320 drawn, 357 lost in 1034 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreMonacoLeague sides
All matches29 scored, 31 conceded (84)664 scored, 664 conceded (2000)
When leading after 75 minutes11 scored, 12 conceded (35)278 scored, 225 conceded (716)
When level after 75 minutes9 scored, 8 conceded (26)161 scored, 161 conceded (568)
When trailing after 75 minutes9 scored, 11 conceded (23)225 scored, 278 conceded (716)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 44 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 25(league sides: 1,083 times, within 15 minutes 166, by full time 475)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

Paris FCMonaco
42Since 17 Aug 2025Matches with xG67Since 1 Nov 2024
58.85xG for126.62
60Goals scored119
64.19xG against88.30
59Goals conceded96

Paris FC

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Paris FC: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
24 Oct 2026at Lens0.441.101–2
18 Oct 2026v Rennes3.623.354–3
10 Oct 2026at Lorient0.970.550–1
19 Sep 2026v Strasbourg1.050.242–1
12 Sep 2026v Lyon0.300.500–0
6 Sep 2026at Marseille3.291.423–2
30 Aug 2026v Nice2.380.783–0
22 Aug 2026at Estac Troyes1.800.420–0
17 May 2026v Paris Saint Germain2.200.612–1
10 May 2026at Rennes1.201.771–2

Monaco

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Monaco: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
25 Oct 2026v Lille2.240.711–1
18 Oct 2026at Lorient0.601.740–1
10 Oct 2026v Toulouse1.171.432–2
18 Sep 2026v Lens1.751.192–1
12 Sep 2026at Strasbourg1.051.021–1
4 Sep 2026at Paris Saint Germain0.512.322–1
30 Aug 2026v Marseille1.721.402–0
23 Aug 2026at Le Havre1.390.601–0
17 May 2026at Strasbourg1.131.504–5
10 May 2026v Lille0.370.390–1

This league season

Ligue 1 matches since 21 Aug 2026.

Paris FCMonaco
8 of 8Matches with xG8 of 8
14Points in those matches15
14.12xPts11.15
13.85xG for10.43
8.36xG against10.41

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Paris FC and Monaco

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • Paris FCParis FC
    Ruled out
    L. Koleosho (Muscle Injury) · N. Sangui (Muscle Injury)
    Doubtful
    A. Camara (Hamstring Injury) · S. Chergui (Knee Injury) · J. Ikone (Thigh Injury) · K. Trapp (Illness)
  • MonacoMonaco
    Ruled out
    A. Fati (Hamstring Injury) · S. Idumbo (Groin Injury) · M. Salisu (Coach's decision)

Published 1 Nov 2026, 15:13 GMT · not changed since

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