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Ligue 1
Strasbourg
5–1Finished
Auxerre
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 14:00 GMTMatchday 9 · Stade de la Meinau, Strasbourg

Strasbourg v Auxerre match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 1 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Strasbourg are favoured to win at home, with the model giving them a 53% chance of victory and a 0.67 expected goals advantage (1.83 to 1.16). However, the hosts have lost their last three matches, while Auxerre have recovered to two wins in their last five. Auxerre will play without four injured players, significantly weakening their squad.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 53%Strasbourg win
  • 24%Draw
  • 23%Auxerre win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

StrasbourgStrasbourg

Last 5: no wins, 1 draw, 4 defeats

  1. lost0–3at Rennes
  2. lost1–3v Paris Saint Germain
  3. lost1–2at Nice
  4. lost1–2at Paris FC
  5. drew1–1v Monaco
AuxerreAuxerre

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

  1. drew1–1v Le Mans
  2. won3–1at Le Havre
  3. lost1–4at Rennes
  4. won2–1v Stade Brestois 29
  5. won1–0v Nice

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Ligue 1, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 184 of 236.
  • Auxerre won 17 of 28 matches in which they scored first, since 3 Nov 2024.
  • Strasbourg won 4 of the last 6 meetings.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Strasbourg's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

6 meetings: Strasbourg 4, draws 1, Auxerre 1

Goals: Strasbourg 9, Auxerre 2

DateMatchScore
7 Mar 2026Auxerre v Strasbourg0–0
29 Oct 2025Strasbourg v Auxerre3–0
2 Mar 2025Auxerre v Strasbourg0–1
5 Jan 2025Strasbourg v Auxerre3–1
19 Mar 2023Strasbourg v Auxerre2–0
27 Aug 2022Auxerre v Strasbourg1–0

Home and away

Strasbourg

Strasbourg at home

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostParis Saint Germain17 Oct 20261–3
  • DrawnMonaco12 Sep 20261–1
  • WonLens29 Aug 20262–1
  • WonMonaco17 May 20265–4
  • LostRayo VallecanoUEFA Europa Conference League7 May 20260–1

Strasbourg: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
17 scored, 17 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10
Auxerre

Auxerre away

Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost

  • WonLe Havre18 Oct 20263–1
  • LostRennes11 Oct 20261–4
  • LostLyon4 Sep 20261–3
  • LostLens22 Aug 20262–5
  • WonLille17 May 20262–0

Auxerre: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
16 scored, 22 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Strasbourg
Last match
7 days before25 Oct 2026 · v Rennes · Ligue 1
Next match
5 days after6 Nov 2026 · v Toulouse · Ligue 1
Auxerre
Last match
7 days before25 Oct 2026 · v Le Mans · Ligue 1
Next match
6 days after7 Nov 2026 · v Paris FC · Ligue 1

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 3 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Auxerre

ScoreAuxerreLeague sides
Scored first17 won, 8 drawn, 3 lost in 28 matches645 won, 168 drawn, 116 lost in 929 matches
Conceded first2 won, 4 drawn, 26 lost in 32 matches116 won, 168 drawn, 645 lost in 929 matches
Level at half-time6 won, 14 drawn, 13 lost in 33 matches257 won, 282 drawn, 257 lost in 796 matches
Level after 60 minutes6 won, 15 drawn, 10 lost in 31 matches179 won, 288 drawn, 179 lost in 646 matches
Level after 70 minutes5 won, 16 drawn, 4 lost in 25 matches144 won, 304 drawn, 144 lost in 592 matches
Level after 80 minutes4 won, 17 drawn, 3 lost in 24 matches121 won, 342 drawn, 121 lost in 584 matches
Level after 15 minutes14 won, 15 drawn, 20 lost in 49 matches523 won, 362 drawn, 523 lost in 1408 matches
Level after 30 minutes12 won, 15 drawn, 15 lost in 42 matches357 won, 320 drawn, 357 lost in 1034 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreAuxerreLeague sides
All matches17 scored, 24 conceded (67)664 scored, 664 conceded (2000)
When level after 75 minutes4 scored, 4 conceded (24)161 scored, 161 conceded (568)
When trailing after 75 minutes4 scored, 11 conceded (24)225 scored, 278 conceded (716)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 39 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 16(league sides: 1,083 times, within 15 minutes 166, by full time 475)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

StrasbourgAuxerre
67Since 2 Nov 2024Matches with xG67Since 3 Nov 2024
95.81xG for77.03
107Goals scored81
103.82xG against105.40
92Goals conceded95

Strasbourg

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Strasbourg: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
25 Oct 2026at Rennes0.942.000–3
17 Oct 2026v Paris Saint Germain1.552.751–3
11 Oct 2026at Nice0.631.251–2
19 Sep 2026at Paris FC0.241.051–2
12 Sep 2026v Monaco1.021.051–1
6 Sep 2026at Estac Troyes2.952.946–2
29 Aug 2026v Lens1.832.912–1
21 Aug 2026at Marseille0.181.860–4
17 May 2026v Monaco1.501.135–4
13 May 2026at Stade Brestois 292.023.062–1

Auxerre

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Auxerre: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
25 Oct 2026v Le Mans1.321.341–1
18 Oct 2026at Le Havre2.701.403–1
11 Oct 2026at Rennes1.762.561–4
20 Sep 2026v Stade Brestois 290.960.342–1
12 Sep 2026v Nice1.741.081–0
4 Sep 2026at Lyon0.712.851–3
29 Aug 2026v Angers1.811.551–3
22 Aug 2026at Lens1.844.412–5
17 May 2026at Lille0.541.722–0
10 May 2026v Nice0.841.332–1

This league season

Ligue 1 matches since 21 Aug 2026.

StrasbourgAuxerre
8 of 8Matches with xG8 of 8
7Points in those matches10
6.82xPts10.42
9.34xG for12.84
15.81xG against15.53

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Strasbourg and Auxerre

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • StrasbourgStrasbourg
    Ruled out
    J. Panichelli (Knee Injury)
    Doubtful
    S. Amo-Ameyaw (Inactive) · F. Balde (Leg Injury)
  • AuxerreAuxerre
    Ruled out
    A. Diousse (Knee Injury) · S. Fofana (Groin Injury) · R. Labeau Lascary (Injury) · B. Okoh (Knee Injury)

Published 1 Nov 2026, 12:58 GMT · not changed since

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