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Ligue 1
Lille
1–0Finished
Lens
Fri 30 Oct 2026 · 20:05 GMTMatchday 9 · Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille

Lille v Lens match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Fri 30 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Lille and Lens meet in a closely matched Ligue 1 fixture where the model rates them almost equally. Lille's one win in five recent games contrasts with Lens's two wins in five, which showed greater variability. Both teams are significantly depleted by injuries, with Lille missing striker Igamane and Lens without striker Edouard, among others. Expected output suggests a closely contested match.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 38%Lille win
  • 28%Draw
  • 34%Lens win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

LilleLille

Last 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats

  1. drew1–1at Monaco
  2. lost2–4v Galatasaray
  3. drew1–1v Stade Brestois 29
  4. lost0–3at Arsenal
  5. won1–0v Le Havre
LensLens

Last 5: 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats

  1. won2–1v Paris FC
  2. lost0–3at Club Brugge KV
  3. won3–1at Estac Troyes
  4. lost0–2v Sporting CP
  5. won2–1v Lyon

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Lille won 36 of 50 matches in which they scored first, since 1 Nov 2024.
  • Lens won 31 of 37 matches in which they scored first, since 2 Nov 2024.
  • Lille won 5 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Under 2.5 goals in 8 of Lille's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Lille 5, draws 3, Lens 2

Goals: Lille 14, Lens 10

DateMatchScore
4 Apr 2026Lille v Lens3–0
20 Sep 2025Lens v Lille3–0
30 Mar 2025Lille v Lens1–0
26 Oct 2024Lens v Lille0–2
29 Mar 2024Lille v Lens2–1
8 Oct 2023Lens v Lille1–1
4 Mar 2023Lens v Lille1–1
9 Oct 2022Lille v Lens1–0
16 Apr 2022Lille v Lens1–2
4 Jan 2022Lens v LilleCoupe de France2–2 PEN

Home and away

Lille

Lille at home

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostGalatasarayUEFA Champions League21 Oct 20262–4
  • DrawnStade Brestois 2917 Oct 20261–1
  • WonLe Havre10 Oct 20261–0
  • WonEstac Troyes13 Sep 20262–0
  • LostReal BetisUEFA Champions League8 Sep 20262–3

Lille: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
12 scored, 7 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
4 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
2 of 10
Clean sheets
5 of 10
Lens

Lens away

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostClub Brugge KVUEFA Champions League21 Oct 20260–3
  • WonEstac Troyes17 Oct 20263–1
  • LostMonaco18 Sep 20261–2
  • DrawnLe Mans13 Sep 20262–2
  • WonSlavia PrahaUEFA Champions League10 Sep 20263–2

Lens: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
17 scored, 17 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
8 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Lille
Last match
5 days before25 Oct 2026 · v Monaco · Ligue 1
Next match
4 days after3 Nov 2026 · v Bodo/Glimt · UEFA Champions League
Lens
Last match
6 days before24 Oct 2026 · v Paris FC · Ligue 1
Next match
5 days after4 Nov 2026 · v Como · UEFA Champions League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Lille

Since 1 Nov 2024

ScoreLilleLeague sides
Scored first36 won, 10 drawn, 4 lost in 50 matches642 won, 168 drawn, 115 lost in 925 matches
Conceded first5 won, 6 drawn, 24 lost in 35 matches115 won, 168 drawn, 642 lost in 925 matches
1 goal up at half-time21 won, 7 drawn, 3 lost in 31 matches317 won, 85 drawn, 43 lost in 445 matches
Level at half-time13 won, 9 drawn, 9 lost in 31 matches256 won, 282 drawn, 256 lost in 794 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes16 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches315 won, 84 drawn, 31 lost in 430 matches
Level after 60 minutes15 won, 9 drawn, 7 lost in 31 matches178 won, 288 drawn, 178 lost in 644 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes1 won, 5 drawn, 14 lost in 20 matches31 won, 84 drawn, 315 lost in 430 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes18 won, 7 drawn, 0 lost in 25 matches320 won, 80 drawn, 22 lost in 422 matches
Level after 70 minutes12 won, 8 drawn, 3 lost in 23 matches143 won, 304 drawn, 143 lost in 590 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes21 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 26 matches321 won, 66 drawn, 8 lost in 395 matches
Level after 80 minutes7 won, 12 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches120 won, 342 drawn, 120 lost in 582 matches
Level after 15 minutes30 won, 17 drawn, 20 lost in 67 matches519 won, 362 drawn, 519 lost in 1400 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes17 won, 6 drawn, 4 lost in 27 matches267 won, 70 drawn, 62 lost in 399 matches
Level after 30 minutes21 won, 9 drawn, 15 lost in 45 matches354 won, 320 drawn, 354 lost in 1028 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreLilleLeague sides
All matches42 scored, 16 conceded (88)663 scored, 663 conceded (1992)
When leading after 75 minutes16 scored, 8 conceded (34)278 scored, 225 conceded (713)
When level after 75 minutes13 scored, 3 conceded (24)160 scored, 160 conceded (566)
When trailing after 75 minutes13 scored, 5 conceded (30)225 scored, 278 conceded (713)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 40 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 14(league sides: 1,078 times, within 15 minutes 164, by full time 473)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Lens

Since 2 Nov 2024

ScoreLensLeague sides
Scored first31 won, 2 drawn, 4 lost in 37 matches642 won, 168 drawn, 115 lost in 925 matches
Conceded first8 won, 4 drawn, 20 lost in 32 matches115 won, 168 drawn, 642 lost in 925 matches
1 goal up at half-time16 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost in 20 matches317 won, 85 drawn, 43 lost in 445 matches
Level at half-time15 won, 3 drawn, 6 lost in 24 matches256 won, 282 drawn, 256 lost in 794 matches
Level after 70 minutes10 won, 4 drawn, 8 lost in 22 matches143 won, 304 drawn, 143 lost in 590 matches
Level after 15 minutes27 won, 6 drawn, 18 lost in 51 matches519 won, 362 drawn, 519 lost in 1400 matches
Level after 30 minutes21 won, 4 drawn, 14 lost in 39 matches354 won, 320 drawn, 354 lost in 1028 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreLensLeague sides
All matches29 scored, 17 conceded (70)663 scored, 663 conceded (1992)
When leading after 75 minutes13 scored, 4 conceded (30)278 scored, 225 conceded (713)
When level after 75 minutes11 scored, 9 conceded (20)160 scored, 160 conceded (566)
When trailing after 75 minutes5 scored, 4 conceded (20)225 scored, 278 conceded (713)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 33 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 15(league sides: 1,078 times, within 15 minutes 164, by full time 473)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

LilleLens
67Since 1 Nov 2024Matches with xG67Since 2 Nov 2024
106.73xG for122.90
100Goals scored115
81.86xG against92.92
71Goals conceded80

Lille

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Lille: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
25 Oct 2026at Monaco0.712.241–1
17 Oct 2026v Stade Brestois 292.250.841–1
10 Oct 2026v Le Havre1.261.281–0
20 Sep 2026at Nice1.581.501–2
13 Sep 2026v Estac Troyes1.650.382–0
3 Sep 2026at Toulouse1.213.461–0
28 Aug 2026v Paris Saint Germain1.271.442–2
23 Aug 2026at Angers1.241.992–0
17 May 2026v Auxerre1.720.540–2
10 May 2026at Monaco0.390.371–0

Lens

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Lens: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
24 Oct 2026v Paris FC1.100.442–1
17 Oct 2026at Estac Troyes1.451.273–1
9 Oct 2026v Lyon1.341.042–1
18 Sep 2026at Monaco1.191.751–2
13 Sep 2026at Le Mans1.622.592–2
5 Sep 2026v Lorient1.241.600–1
29 Aug 2026at Strasbourg2.911.831–2
22 Aug 2026v Auxerre4.411.845–2
17 May 2026at Lyon1.541.914–0
13 May 2026v Paris Saint Germain2.871.220–2

This league season

Ligue 1 matches since 21 Aug 2026.

LilleLens
8 of 8Matches with xG8 of 8
15Points in those matches13
10.40xPts12.47
11.17xG for15.26
13.13xG against12.36

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Lille and Lens

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • LilleLille
    Ruled out
    H. Igamane (Knee Injury) · T. Nianzou (Red Card) · T. Santos (Knee Injury) · A. Ueda (Foot Injury)
  • LensLens
    Ruled out
    N. Celik (Inactive) · J. Chavez (Coach's decision) · O. Edouard (Groin Injury) · I. Ganiou (Knee Injury) · M. Nawrocki (Knee Injury) · A. Sima (Muscle Injury)

Published 30 Oct 2026, 19:02 GMT · not changed since

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