Marseille v Toulouse match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 1 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Marseille's model chances of 55% to win and 24% to draw compare to Toulouse's 22%, with expected goals of 1.91 and 1.17 respectively. Marseille have form of WLWLW against Toulouse's DWDWD. Marseille are without D. Cornelius (hip injury), whilst Toulouse are missing R. Messali (thigh) and M. Niflore (knee).
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 55%Marseille win
- 23%Draw
- 22%Toulouse win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
MarseilleLast 5: 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats
- won4–3v Le Havre
- lost0–1at Sturm Graz
- won5–2at Angers
- lost0–1v Olympiakos Piraeus
- won2–0at Estac Troyes
ToulouseLast 5: 2 wins, 3 draws, no defeats
- drew0–0v Estac Troyes
- won3–0at Le Mans
- drew2–2at Monaco
- won3–2v Le Havre
- drew2–2at Lorient
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Marseille won 30 of 39 matches in which they scored first, since 3 Nov 2024.
- Toulouse won 20 of 27 matches in which they scored first, since 3 Nov 2024.
- Marseille won 5 of the last 9 meetings.
- Toulouse unbeaten in their last 5 away games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
9 meetings: Marseille 5, draws 4, Toulouse 0
Goals: Marseille 22, Toulouse 12
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 7 Mar 2026 | Toulouse v Marseille | 0–1 |
| 4 Mar 2026 | Marseille v ToulouseCoupe de France | 2–2 PEN |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Marseille v Toulouse | 2–2 |
| 6 Apr 2025 | Marseille v Toulouse | 3–2 |
| 31 Aug 2024 | Toulouse v Marseille | 1–3 |
| 21 Apr 2024 | Toulouse v Marseille | 2–2 |
| 17 Sep 2023 | Marseille v Toulouse | 0–0 |
| 19 Feb 2023 | Toulouse v Marseille | 2–3 |
| 29 Dec 2022 | Marseille v Toulouse | 6–1 |
Home and away
MarseilleMarseille at home
Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost
- WonLe Havre25 Oct 20264–3
- LostOlympiakos PiraeusUEFA Europa League15 Oct 20260–1
- LostParis Saint Germain20 Sep 20261–2
- LostParis FC6 Sep 20262–3
- WonStrasbourg21 Aug 20264–0
Marseille: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 23 scored, 15 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 8 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 8 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
ToulouseToulouse away
Last 5: 2 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost
- WonLe Mans16 Oct 20263–0
- DrawnMonaco10 Oct 20262–2
- DrawnLorient12 Sep 20262–2
- DrawnStade Brestois 2929 Aug 20262–2
- WonStrasbourg3 May 20262–1
Toulouse: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 19 scored, 19 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 8 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 9 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Marseille- Last match
- 7 days before25 Oct 2026 · v Le Havre · Ligue 1
- Next match
- 4 days after5 Nov 2026 · v Bayer Leverkusen · UEFA Europa League
Toulouse- Last match
- 7 days before25 Oct 2026 · v Estac Troyes · Ligue 1
- Next match
- 5 days after6 Nov 2026 · v Strasbourg · Ligue 1
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 3 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Marseille
| Score | Marseille | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 30 won, 5 drawn, 4 lost in 39 matches | 648 won, 168 drawn, 116 lost in 932 matches |
| Conceded first | 10 won, 3 drawn, 26 lost in 39 matches | 116 won, 168 drawn, 648 lost in 932 matches |
| Level at half-time | 16 won, 2 drawn, 11 lost in 29 matches | 257 won, 282 drawn, 257 lost in 796 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 70 minutes | 20 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost in 22 matches | 275 won, 7 drawn, 0 lost in 282 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 16 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches | 322 won, 66 drawn, 8 lost in 396 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 26 won, 6 drawn, 20 lost in 52 matches | 526 won, 362 drawn, 526 lost in 1414 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 18 won, 2 drawn, 17 lost in 37 matches | 360 won, 320 drawn, 360 lost in 1040 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Marseille | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 32 scored, 37 conceded (78) | 667 scored, 667 conceded (2006) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 20 scored, 20 conceded (39) | 281 scored, 225 conceded (719) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 4 scored, 8 conceded (23) | 225 scored, 281 conceded (719) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 39 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 17(league sides: 1,086 times, within 15 minutes 166, by full time 475)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Toulouse
| Score | Toulouse | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 20 won, 3 drawn, 4 lost in 27 matches | 648 won, 168 drawn, 116 lost in 932 matches |
| Conceded first | 3 won, 10 drawn, 21 lost in 34 matches | 116 won, 168 drawn, 648 lost in 932 matches |
| Level at half-time | 10 won, 9 drawn, 10 lost in 29 matches | 257 won, 282 drawn, 257 lost in 796 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 1 won, 6 drawn, 16 lost in 23 matches | 31 won, 84 drawn, 317 lost in 432 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 7 won, 12 drawn, 4 lost in 23 matches | 144 won, 304 drawn, 144 lost in 592 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 1 won, 5 drawn, 16 lost in 22 matches | 22 won, 80 drawn, 323 lost in 425 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 1 won, 7 drawn, 19 lost in 27 matches | 8 won, 66 drawn, 322 lost in 396 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 16 won, 15 drawn, 20 lost in 51 matches | 526 won, 362 drawn, 526 lost in 1414 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 10 won, 13 drawn, 14 lost in 37 matches | 360 won, 320 drawn, 360 lost in 1040 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Toulouse | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 28 scored, 18 conceded (66) | 667 scored, 667 conceded (2006) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 3 conceded (20) | 161 scored, 161 conceded (568) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 13 scored, 10 conceded (29) | 225 scored, 281 conceded (719) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 41 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 20(league sides: 1,086 times, within 15 minutes 166, by full time 475)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 3 Nov 2024
| Marseille | Toulouse | |
|---|---|---|
| 67 | Matches with xG | 66 |
| 127.12 | xG for | 94.21 |
| 134 | Goals scored | 93 |
| 97.45 | xG against | 84.33 |
| 94 | Goals conceded | 89 |
Marseille
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct 2026 | v Le Havre | 1.63 | 3.16 | 4–3 |
| 18 Oct 2026 | at Angers | 2.71 | 2.21 | 5–2 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | at Estac Troyes | 1.30 | 1.06 | 2–0 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | v Paris Saint Germain | 1.80 | 4.33 | 1–2 |
| 11 Sep 2026 | at Rennes | 1.34 | 1.88 | 0–1 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | v Paris FC | 1.42 | 3.29 | 2–3 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | at Monaco | 1.40 | 1.72 | 0–2 |
| 21 Aug 2026 | v Strasbourg | 1.86 | 0.18 | 4–0 |
| 17 May 2026 | v Rennes | 2.92 | 2.49 | 3–1 |
| 10 May 2026 | at Le Havre | 1.21 | 1.14 | 1–0 |
Toulouse
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct 2026 | v Estac Troyes | 0.88 | 0.41 | 0–0 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | at Le Mans | 1.83 | 0.98 | 3–0 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Monaco | 1.43 | 1.17 | 2–2 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Le Havre | 1.95 | 2.34 | 3–2 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Lorient | 1.63 | 0.93 | 2–2 |
| 3 Sep 2026 | v Lille | 3.46 | 1.21 | 0–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Stade Brestois 29 | 1.14 | 3.04 | 2–2 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Lyon | 2.77 | 0.70 | 0–2 |
| 10 May 2026 | v Lyon | 1.13 | 1.54 | 2–1 |
| 3 May 2026 | at Strasbourg | 1.36 | 0.41 | 2–1 |
This league season
Ligue 1 matches since 21 Aug 2026.
| Marseille | Toulouse | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 of 8 | Matches with xG | 8 of 8 |
| 12 | Points in those matches | 10 |
| 9.58 | xPts | 13.79 |
| 13.46 | xG for | 15.09 |
| 17.83 | xG against | 10.78 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Marseille and Toulouse
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- D. Cornelius (Hip Injury)
- Ruled out
- R. Messali (Thigh Injury) · M. Niflore (Knee Injury)
Published 1 Nov 2026, 18:42 GMT · not changed since
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