Rennes v Lille · analysis and preview
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Most likely: Rennes win
Rennes host Lille in an evenly matched fixture. The model gives Rennes a 41% chance of winning, Lille 32%, and a draw 27%. Expected goals total 2.74 per match. Rennes slightly outperform Lille in expected output at 1.46 versus 1.28, a gap of 0.18. Both sides have struggled for consistency, with Rennes winning just once in five (DLWDL) and Lille one win and one draw in five (DWDLD).
How the match could end · our estimate
- 41%Rennes win
- 27%Draw
- 32%Lille win
PRO analysis
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Form · newest first
RennesLast 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats
- drew0–0v Olympiakos Piraeus
- lost2–5at Nice
- won3–0v Strasbourg
- drew2–2at Juventus
- lost3–4at Paris FC
LilleLast 5: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 defeat
- drew0–0at Bodo/Glimt
- won1–0v Lens
- drew1–1at Monaco
- lost2–4v Galatasaray
- drew1–1v Stade Brestois 29
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Rennes won 28 of 37 matches in which they scored first, since 10 Nov 2024.
- Lille won 37 of 49 matches in which they scored first, since 10 Nov 2024.
- Lille won 5 of the last 10 meetings.
- Rennes unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
10 meetings: Rennes 1, draws 4, Lille 5
Goals: Rennes 12, Lille 17
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar 2026 | Rennes v Lille | 1–2 |
| 3 Jan 2026 | Lille v Rennes | 0–2 |
| 16 Feb 2025 | Rennes v Lille | 0–2 |
| 24 Nov 2024 | Lille v Rennes | 1–0 |
| 10 Mar 2024 | Lille v Rennes | 2–2 |
| 16 Sep 2023 | Rennes v Lille | 2–2 |
| 4 Feb 2023 | Rennes v Lille | 1–3 |
| 6 Nov 2022 | Lille v Rennes | 1–1 |
| 21 May 2022 | Lille v Rennes | 2–2 |
| 1 Dec 2021 | Rennes v Lille | 1–2 |
Home and away
RennesRennes at home
Last 5: 4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost
- DrawnOlympiakos PiraeusUEFA Europa League4 Nov 20260–0
- WonStrasbourg25 Oct 20263–0
- WonOFIUEFA Europa League15 Oct 20262–1
- WonAuxerre11 Oct 20264–1
- WonMarseille11 Sep 20261–0
Rennes: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 20 scored, 10 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 7 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 8 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
LilleLille away
Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost
- DrawnBodo/GlimtUEFA Champions League3 Nov 20260–0
- DrawnMonaco25 Oct 20261–1
- LostArsenalUEFA Champions League13 Oct 20260–3
- LostNice20 Sep 20261–2
- WonToulouse3 Sep 20261–0
Lille: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 16 scored, 5 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 4 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 4 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Rennes- Last match
- 4 days before4 Nov 2026 · v Olympiakos Piraeus · UEFA Europa League
- Next match
- Not known
Lille- Last match
- 5 days before3 Nov 2026 · v Bodo/Glimt · UEFA Champions League
- Next match
- 13 days after21 Nov 2026 · v Lyon · Ligue 1
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 10 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Rennes
| Score | Rennes | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 28 won, 5 drawn, 4 lost in 37 matches | 650 won, 168 drawn, 116 lost in 934 matches |
| Conceded first | 5 won, 3 drawn, 22 lost in 30 matches | 116 won, 168 drawn, 650 lost in 934 matches |
| Level at half-time | 8 won, 7 drawn, 7 lost in 22 matches | 258 won, 282 drawn, 258 lost in 798 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 17 won, 9 drawn, 14 lost in 40 matches | 527 won, 362 drawn, 527 lost in 1416 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 12 won, 8 drawn, 13 lost in 33 matches | 361 won, 320 drawn, 361 lost in 1042 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Rennes | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 28 scored, 23 conceded (71) | 668 scored, 668 conceded (2010) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 12 scored, 6 conceded (29) | 282 scored, 225 conceded (721) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 10 conceded (24) | 225 scored, 282 conceded (721) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 36 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 15(league sides: 1,088 times, within 15 minutes 166, by full time 475)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Lille
| Score | Lille | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 37 won, 8 drawn, 4 lost in 49 matches | 650 won, 168 drawn, 116 lost in 934 matches |
| Conceded first | 5 won, 6 drawn, 24 lost in 35 matches | 116 won, 168 drawn, 650 lost in 934 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 21 won, 5 drawn, 3 lost in 29 matches | 321 won, 85 drawn, 43 lost in 449 matches |
| Level at half-time | 14 won, 10 drawn, 9 lost in 33 matches | 258 won, 282 drawn, 258 lost in 798 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 16 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches | 317 won, 84 drawn, 31 lost in 432 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 16 won, 9 drawn, 7 lost in 32 matches | 180 won, 288 drawn, 180 lost in 648 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 1 won, 5 drawn, 14 lost in 20 matches | 31 won, 84 drawn, 317 lost in 432 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 18 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches | 324 won, 80 drawn, 22 lost in 426 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 13 won, 8 drawn, 3 lost in 24 matches | 144 won, 304 drawn, 144 lost in 592 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 21 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 25 matches | 323 won, 66 drawn, 8 lost in 397 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 8 won, 12 drawn, 2 lost in 22 matches | 121 won, 342 drawn, 121 lost in 584 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 31 won, 16 drawn, 20 lost in 67 matches | 527 won, 362 drawn, 527 lost in 1416 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 17 won, 4 drawn, 4 lost in 25 matches | 268 won, 70 drawn, 62 lost in 400 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 22 won, 10 drawn, 15 lost in 47 matches | 361 won, 320 drawn, 361 lost in 1042 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Lille | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 43 scored, 15 conceded (88) | 668 scored, 668 conceded (2010) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 16 scored, 7 conceded (33) | 282 scored, 225 conceded (721) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 14 scored, 3 conceded (25) | 161 scored, 161 conceded (568) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 13 scored, 5 conceded (30) | 225 scored, 282 conceded (721) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 40 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 14(league sides: 1,088 times, within 15 minutes 166, by full time 475)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 10 Nov 2024
| Rennes | Lille | |
|---|---|---|
| 67 | Matches with xG | 67 |
| 110.29 | xG for | 106.77 |
| 117 | Goals scored | 100 |
| 107.27 | xG against | 80.88 |
| 103 | Goals conceded | 70 |
Rennes
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct 2026 | at Nice | 2.67 | 3.52 | 2–5 |
| 25 Oct 2026 | v Strasbourg | 2.00 | 0.94 | 3–0 |
| 18 Oct 2026 | at Paris FC | 3.35 | 3.62 | 3–4 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | v Auxerre | 2.56 | 1.76 | 4–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Lyon | 1.37 | 3.13 | 0–4 |
| 11 Sep 2026 | v Marseille | 1.88 | 1.34 | 1–0 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | at Angers | 1.54 | 1.66 | 2–1 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | v Le Mans | 3.12 | 3.06 | 3–2 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | v Paris Saint Germain | 0.87 | 2.16 | 2–2 |
| 17 May 2026 | at Marseille | 2.49 | 2.92 | 1–3 |
Lille
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct 2026 | v Lens | 1.71 | 0.26 | 1–0 |
| 25 Oct 2026 | at Monaco | 0.71 | 2.24 | 1–1 |
| 17 Oct 2026 | v Stade Brestois 29 | 2.25 | 0.84 | 1–1 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | v Le Havre | 1.26 | 1.28 | 1–0 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | at Nice | 1.58 | 1.50 | 1–2 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | v Estac Troyes | 1.65 | 0.38 | 2–0 |
| 3 Sep 2026 | at Toulouse | 1.21 | 3.46 | 1–0 |
| 28 Aug 2026 | v Paris Saint Germain | 1.27 | 1.44 | 2–2 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | at Angers | 1.24 | 1.99 | 2–0 |
| 17 May 2026 | v Auxerre | 1.72 | 0.54 | 0–2 |
This league season
Ligue 1 matches since 21 Aug 2026.
| Rennes | Lille | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 of 9 | Matches with xG | 9 of 9 |
| 16 | Points in those matches | 18 |
| 11.88 | xPts | 12.83 |
| 19.36 | xG for | 12.88 |
| 21.19 | xG against | 13.39 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Rennes and Lille
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Team news not available yet.
Updated 7 Nov 2026, 17:33 GMT
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