LEDGER
Sign inGo PRO
Ligue 1
Lorient
0–2Finished
Stade Brestois 29
Mon 2 Nov 2026 · 19:45 GMTMatchday 9 · Stade du Moustoir, Lorient

Lorient v Stade Brestois 29 match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Mon 2 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

The model gives Lorient a 51% chance of victory in this Breton derby, with the hosts expected to create more chances (1.68 to 1.1 expected goals). Lorient's recent form shows two wins in their last five, while Brest have won just once in five matches. Brest won their previous meeting 2–0, but the teams drew 3–3 before that.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 51%Lorient win
  • 26%Draw
  • 23%Stade Brestois 29 win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

LorientLorient

Last 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat

  1. drew0–0at Angers
  2. won1–0v Monaco
  3. won1–0v Paris FC
  4. lost1–2at Le Mans
  5. drew2–2v Toulouse
Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29

Last 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats

  1. lost1–2v Nice
  2. drew1–1at Lille
  3. won5–1v Angers
  4. lost1–2at Auxerre
  5. lost0–1v Paris Saint Germain

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Lorient won 13 of 20 matches in which they scored first, since 17 Aug 2025.
  • Stade Brestois 29 won 24 of 38 matches in which they scored first, since 6 Nov 2024.
  • Stade Brestois 29 won 4 of the last 8 meetings.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

8 meetings: Lorient 3, draws 1, Stade Brestois 29 4

Goals: Lorient 9, Stade Brestois 29 14

DateMatchScore
7 Feb 2026Stade Brestois 29 v Lorient2–0
19 Oct 2025Lorient v Stade Brestois 293–3
31 Mar 2024Lorient v Stade Brestois 290–1
20 Dec 2023Stade Brestois 29 v Lorient4–0
7 May 2023Lorient v Stade Brestois 292–1
9 Oct 2022Stade Brestois 29 v Lorient1–2
27 Feb 2022Stade Brestois 29 v Lorient0–1
7 Nov 2021Lorient v Stade Brestois 291–2

Home and away

Lorient

Lorient at home

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • WonMonaco18 Oct 20261–0
  • WonParis FC10 Oct 20261–0
  • DrawnToulouse12 Sep 20262–2
  • LostEstac Troyes29 Aug 20261–2
  • LostLe Havre17 May 20260–2

Lorient: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
14 scored, 13 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Stade Brestois 29

Stade Brestois 29 away

Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost

  • DrawnLille17 Oct 20261–1
  • LostAuxerre20 Sep 20261–2
  • WonLe Havre5 Sep 20262–1
  • DrawnLe Mans22 Aug 20262–2
  • LostParis Saint Germain10 May 20260–1

Stade Brestois 29: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
8 scored, 17 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Lorient
Last match
8 days before25 Oct 2026 · v Angers · Ligue 1
Next match
6 days after8 Nov 2026 · v Le Havre · Ligue 1
Stade Brestois 29
Last match
10 days before23 Oct 2026 · v Nice · Ligue 1
Next match
6 days after8 Nov 2026 · v Lyon · Ligue 1

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Lorient

Since 17 Aug 2025

ScoreLorientLeague sides
Scored first13 won, 6 drawn, 1 lost in 20 matches649 won, 168 drawn, 116 lost in 933 matches
Level after 15 minutes11 won, 12 drawn, 10 lost in 33 matches526 won, 362 drawn, 526 lost in 1414 matches
Level after 30 minutes8 won, 11 drawn, 6 lost in 25 matches360 won, 320 drawn, 360 lost in 1040 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreLorientLeague sides
All matches14 scored, 16 conceded (42)667 scored, 667 conceded (2008)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 21 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 10(league sides: 1,087 times, within 15 minutes 166, by full time 475)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Stade Brestois 29

Since 6 Nov 2024

ScoreStade Brestois 29League sides
Scored first24 won, 7 drawn, 7 lost in 38 matches649 won, 168 drawn, 116 lost in 933 matches
Conceded first1 won, 5 drawn, 25 lost in 31 matches116 won, 168 drawn, 649 lost in 933 matches
1 goal up at half-time15 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost in 21 matches321 won, 85 drawn, 43 lost in 449 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes16 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost in 20 matches317 won, 84 drawn, 31 lost in 432 matches
Level after 80 minutes3 won, 13 drawn, 4 lost in 20 matches121 won, 342 drawn, 121 lost in 584 matches
Level after 15 minutes16 won, 8 drawn, 18 lost in 42 matches526 won, 362 drawn, 526 lost in 1414 matches
Level after 30 minutes9 won, 8 drawn, 8 lost in 25 matches360 won, 320 drawn, 360 lost in 1040 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes1 won, 3 drawn, 17 lost in 21 matches62 won, 70 drawn, 268 lost in 400 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreStade Brestois 29League sides
All matches18 scored, 32 conceded (73)667 scored, 667 conceded (2008)
When leading after 75 minutes10 scored, 8 conceded (25)281 scored, 225 conceded (720)
When trailing after 75 minutes5 scored, 17 conceded (30)225 scored, 281 conceded (720)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 42 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 15(league sides: 1,087 times, within 15 minutes 166, by full time 475)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

LorientStade Brestois 29
42Since 17 Aug 2025Matches with xG66Since 10 Nov 2024
54.37xG for95.91
55Goals scored96
55.40xG against101.27
57Goals conceded110

Lorient

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Lorient: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
25 Oct 2026at Angers0.630.350–0
18 Oct 2026v Monaco1.740.601–0
10 Oct 2026v Paris FC0.550.971–0
19 Sep 2026at Le Mans0.970.921–2
12 Sep 2026v Toulouse0.931.632–2
5 Sep 2026at Lens1.601.241–0
29 Aug 2026v Estac Troyes1.152.121–2
22 Aug 2026at Nice1.281.050–0
17 May 2026v Le Havre1.301.250–2
10 May 2026at Metz2.000.674–0

Stade Brestois 29

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Stade Brestois 29: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
23 Oct 2026v Nice2.570.501–2
17 Oct 2026at Lille0.842.251–1
10 Oct 2026v Angers3.821.395–1
20 Sep 2026at Auxerre0.340.961–2
13 Sep 2026v Paris Saint Germain1.241.160–1
5 Sep 2026at Le Havre2.372.022–1
29 Aug 2026v Toulouse3.041.142–2
22 Aug 2026at Le Mans2.720.672–2
17 May 2026v Angers1.570.681–1
13 May 2026v Strasbourg3.062.021–2

This league season

Ligue 1 matches since 21 Aug 2026.

LorientStade Brestois 29
8 of 8Matches with xG8 of 8
12Points in those matches9
10.91xPts14.37
8.85xG for16.94
8.88xG against10.09

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Lorient and Stade Brestois 29

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • LorientLorient
    Ruled out
    B. Fadiga (Muscle Injury) · P. Katseris (Muscle Injury)
  • Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
    Ruled out
    B. Chardonnet (Calf Injury) · R. Le Guen (Broken Leg)
    Doubtful
    G. Versini (Leg Injury)

Published 2 Nov 2026, 18:43 GMT · not changed since

All fixtures