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Ligue 1
Lens
19:45
Marseille
Sun 8 Nov 2026 · GMTMatchday 10 · Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens

Lens v Marseille · analysis and preview

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Most likely: Lens win

The model gives Lens a 42% chance of winning at home, with Marseille at 34% and a draw at 25%. Expected goals stand at 1.67 for Lens and 1.51 for Marseille, a gap of 0.16 in the hosts' favour. Marseille have won three of their last five matches, while Lens show a mixed run, though recent head-to-head meetings have been competitive.

How the match could end · our estimate

  • 42%Lens win
  • 25%Draw
  • 33%Marseille win

PRO analysis

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

LensLens

Last 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats

  1. lost1–9v Como
  2. lost0–1at Lille
  3. won2–1v Paris FC
  4. lost0–3at Club Brugge KV
  5. won3–1at Estac Troyes
MarseilleMarseille

Last 5: 4 wins, no draws, 1 defeat

  1. won1–0at Bayer Leverkusen
  2. won2–0v Toulouse
  3. won4–3v Le Havre
  4. lost0–1at Sturm Graz
  5. won5–2at Angers

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Lens won 31 of 37 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Nov 2024.
  • Marseille won 31 of 40 matches in which they scored first, since 8 Nov 2024.
  • Lens won 6 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Lens's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Lens 6, draws 0, Marseille 4

Goals: Lens 13, Marseille 14

DateMatchScore
24 Jan 2026Marseille v Lens3–1
25 Oct 2025Lens v Marseille2–1
8 Mar 2025Marseille v Lens0–1
23 Nov 2024Lens v Marseille1–3
28 Apr 2024Marseille v Lens2–1
12 Nov 2023Lens v Marseille1–0
6 May 2023Lens v Marseille2–1
22 Oct 2022Marseille v Lens0–1
22 Jan 2022Lens v Marseille0–2
26 Sep 2021Marseille v Lens2–3

Home and away

Lens

Lens at home

Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost

  • LostComoUEFA Champions League4 Nov 20261–9
  • WonParis FC24 Oct 20262–1
  • LostSporting CPUEFA Champions League13 Oct 20260–2
  • WonLyon9 Oct 20262–1
  • LostLorient5 Sep 20260–1

Lens: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
23 scored, 13 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
Marseille

Marseille away

Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost

  • WonBayer LeverkusenUEFA Europa League5 Nov 20261–0
  • LostSturm GrazUEFA Europa League22 Oct 20260–1
  • WonAngers18 Oct 20265–2
  • WonEstac Troyes11 Oct 20262–0
  • LostBeşiktaşUEFA Europa League17 Sep 20261–4

Marseille: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
10 scored, 14 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
2 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
3 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Lens
Last match
4 days before4 Nov 2026 · v Como · UEFA Champions League
Next match
13 days after21 Nov 2026 · v Toulouse · Ligue 1
Marseille
Last match
3 days before5 Nov 2026 · v Bayer Leverkusen · UEFA Europa League
Next match
Not known

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Lens

Since 9 Nov 2024

ScoreLensLeague sides
Scored first31 won, 2 drawn, 4 lost in 37 matches650 won, 168 drawn, 116 lost in 934 matches
Conceded first8 won, 4 drawn, 21 lost in 33 matches116 won, 168 drawn, 650 lost in 934 matches
1 goal up at half-time16 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost in 20 matches321 won, 85 drawn, 43 lost in 449 matches
Level at half-time15 won, 3 drawn, 7 lost in 25 matches258 won, 282 drawn, 258 lost in 798 matches
Level after 60 minutes10 won, 2 drawn, 8 lost in 20 matches180 won, 288 drawn, 180 lost in 648 matches
Level after 70 minutes10 won, 4 drawn, 9 lost in 23 matches144 won, 304 drawn, 144 lost in 592 matches
Level after 15 minutes27 won, 6 drawn, 19 lost in 52 matches527 won, 362 drawn, 527 lost in 1416 matches
Level after 30 minutes21 won, 4 drawn, 15 lost in 40 matches361 won, 320 drawn, 361 lost in 1042 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreLensLeague sides
All matches29 scored, 19 conceded (71)668 scored, 668 conceded (2010)
When leading after 75 minutes13 scored, 4 conceded (30)282 scored, 225 conceded (721)
When level after 75 minutes11 scored, 10 conceded (21)161 scored, 161 conceded (568)
When trailing after 75 minutes5 scored, 5 conceded (20)225 scored, 282 conceded (721)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 33 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 15(league sides: 1,088 times, within 15 minutes 166, by full time 475)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Marseille

Since 8 Nov 2024

ScoreMarseilleLeague sides
Scored first31 won, 5 drawn, 4 lost in 40 matches650 won, 168 drawn, 116 lost in 934 matches
Conceded first10 won, 3 drawn, 26 lost in 39 matches116 won, 168 drawn, 650 lost in 934 matches
Level at half-time16 won, 2 drawn, 11 lost in 29 matches258 won, 282 drawn, 258 lost in 798 matches
2+ goals up after 70 minutes21 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches276 won, 7 drawn, 0 lost in 283 matches
2+ goals up after 80 minutes19 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches314 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost in 316 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes16 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches323 won, 66 drawn, 8 lost in 397 matches
Level after 15 minutes26 won, 6 drawn, 20 lost in 52 matches527 won, 362 drawn, 527 lost in 1416 matches
Level after 30 minutes19 won, 2 drawn, 17 lost in 38 matches361 won, 320 drawn, 361 lost in 1042 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreMarseilleLeague sides
All matches33 scored, 37 conceded (79)668 scored, 668 conceded (2010)
When leading after 75 minutes20 scored, 20 conceded (39)282 scored, 225 conceded (721)
When trailing after 75 minutes4 scored, 8 conceded (23)225 scored, 282 conceded (721)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 39 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 17(league sides: 1,088 times, within 15 minutes 166, by full time 475)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

LensMarseille
67Since 9 Nov 2024Matches with xG67Since 8 Nov 2024
122.33xG for127.23
115Goals scored134
91.75xG against98.01
80Goals conceded93

Lens

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Lens: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
30 Oct 2026at Lille0.261.710–1
24 Oct 2026v Paris FC1.100.442–1
17 Oct 2026at Estac Troyes1.451.273–1
9 Oct 2026v Lyon1.341.042–1
18 Sep 2026at Monaco1.191.751–2
13 Sep 2026at Le Mans1.622.592–2
5 Sep 2026v Lorient1.241.600–1
29 Aug 2026at Strasbourg2.911.831–2
22 Aug 2026v Auxerre4.411.845–2
17 May 2026at Lyon1.541.914–0

Marseille

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Marseille: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
1 Nov 2026v Toulouse1.331.922–0
25 Oct 2026v Le Havre1.633.164–3
18 Oct 2026at Angers2.712.215–2
11 Oct 2026at Estac Troyes1.301.062–0
20 Sep 2026v Paris Saint Germain1.804.331–2
11 Sep 2026at Rennes1.341.880–1
6 Sep 2026v Paris FC1.423.292–3
30 Aug 2026at Monaco1.401.720–2
21 Aug 2026v Strasbourg1.860.184–0
17 May 2026v Rennes2.922.493–1

This league season

Ligue 1 matches since 21 Aug 2026.

LensMarseille
9 of 9Matches with xG9 of 9
13Points in those matches15
12.83xPts10.60
15.52xG for14.79
14.07xG against19.75

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Lens and Marseille

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

Team news not available yet.

Updated 7 Nov 2026, 14:43 GMT

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