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La Liga
Real Sociedad
15:15
Rayo Vallecano
Sun 8 Nov 2026 · GMTMatchday 12 · Anoeta Stadium, San Sebastian

Real Sociedad v Rayo Vallecano · analysis and preview

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Most likely: Real Sociedad win

Real Sociedad are favoured at home, with the model giving them a 53% chance of victory against Rayo Vallecano. Expected goals stand at 1.76 for Sociedad and 1.07 for Vallecano, a gap of 0.69. Sociedad have won three of their last five matches, while Vallecano have drawn three times in the same period.

How the match could end · our estimate

  • 53%Real Sociedad win
  • 25%Draw
  • 22%Rayo Vallecano win

PRO analysis

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Real SociedadReal Sociedad

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

  1. drew1–1v Lyon
  2. lost1–2at Athletic Club
  3. won2–1v Levante
  4. won6–0at Lillestrom
  5. won5–2at Malaga
Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano

Last 5: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 defeat

  1. won3–0v Celta Vigo
  2. drew1–1final 3–2at Recreativo Huelva
  3. lost0–3v Elche
  4. drew1–1at Getafe
  5. drew1–1at Osasuna

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Provisional: a recent score not yet confirmed.

Trends

  • La Liga, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 256 of 321.
  • Rayo Vallecano won 20 of 37 matches in which they scored first, since 8 Nov 2024.
  • Real Sociedad won 3 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Rayo Vallecano without a win in their last 5 away games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Real Sociedad 3, draws 5, Rayo Vallecano 2

Goals: Real Sociedad 16, Rayo Vallecano 13

DateMatchScore
26 Apr 2026Rayo Vallecano v Real Sociedad3–3
5 Oct 2025Real Sociedad v Rayo Vallecano0–1
16 Mar 2025Rayo Vallecano v Real Sociedad2–2
16 Jan 2025Real Sociedad v Rayo VallecanoCopa del Rey3–1
18 Aug 2024Real Sociedad v Rayo Vallecano1–2
27 Jan 2024Real Sociedad v Rayo Vallecano0–0
29 Oct 2023Rayo Vallecano v Real Sociedad2–2
22 Apr 2023Real Sociedad v Rayo Vallecano2–1
21 Jan 2023Rayo Vallecano v Real Sociedad0–2
1 May 2022Rayo Vallecano v Real Sociedad1–1

Home and away

Real Sociedad

Real Sociedad at home

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • DrawnLyonProvisionalUEFA Europa League5 Nov 20261–1
  • WonLevante25 Oct 20262–1
  • WonDeportivo La Coruna11 Oct 20263–2
  • LostBournemouthUEFA Europa League17 Sep 20261–2
  • LostAtletico Madrid13 Sep 20260–3

Real Sociedad: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
17 scored, 17 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano away

Last 5: 0 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost

  • DrawnRecreativo HuelvaCopa del Rey27 Oct 20261–1 AET 3–2
  • DrawnGetafe19 Oct 20261–1
  • DrawnOsasuna19 Sep 20261–1
  • LostReal Madrid12 Sep 20261–4
  • LostBarcelona31 Aug 20262–5

Rayo Vallecano: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
11 scored, 19 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Real Sociedad
Last match
3 days before5 Nov 2026 · v Lyon · UEFA Europa League
Next match
Not known
Rayo Vallecano
Last match
8 days before31 Oct 2026 · v Celta Vigo · La Liga
Next match
Not known

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 8 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Rayo Vallecano

ScoreRayo VallecanoLeague sides
Scored first20 won, 13 drawn, 4 lost in 37 matches778 won, 248 drawn, 147 lost in 1173 matches
Conceded first4 won, 10 drawn, 21 lost in 35 matches147 won, 248 drawn, 778 lost in 1173 matches
Level at half-time10 won, 14 drawn, 4 lost in 28 matches348 won, 378 drawn, 348 lost in 1074 matches
1 goal down at half-time1 won, 6 drawn, 13 lost in 20 matches63 won, 127 drawn, 334 lost in 524 matches
Level after 60 minutes8 won, 17 drawn, 8 lost in 33 matches266 won, 386 drawn, 266 lost in 918 matches
Level after 70 minutes6 won, 21 drawn, 7 lost in 34 matches211 won, 424 drawn, 211 lost in 846 matches
Level after 80 minutes5 won, 22 drawn, 5 lost in 32 matches156 won, 456 drawn, 156 lost in 768 matches
Level after 15 minutes14 won, 24 drawn, 14 lost in 52 matches657 won, 492 drawn, 657 lost in 1806 matches
Level after 30 minutes15 won, 17 drawn, 7 lost in 39 matches485 won, 428 drawn, 485 lost in 1398 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes2 won, 5 drawn, 14 lost in 21 matches62 won, 102 drawn, 297 lost in 461 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreRayo VallecanoLeague sides
All matches14 scored, 23 conceded (76)805 scored, 805 conceded (2498)
When leading after 75 minutes1 scored, 4 conceded (22)288 scored, 279 conceded (848)
When level after 75 minutes7 scored, 11 conceded (33)238 scored, 238 conceded (802)
When trailing after 75 minutes6 scored, 8 conceded (21)279 scored, 288 conceded (848)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 38 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 20(league sides: 1,317 times, within 15 minutes 213, by full time 612)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

Real SociedadRayo Vallecano
75Since 10 Nov 2024Matches with xG75Since 8 Nov 2024
96.47xG for100.47
104Goals scored85
106.49xG against102.19
117Goals conceded99

Real Sociedad

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Real Sociedad: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
1 Nov 2026at Athletic Club1.173.121–2
25 Oct 2026v Levante2.220.482–1
18 Oct 2026at Malaga2.441.245–2
11 Oct 2026v Deportivo La Coruna1.442.133–2
20 Sep 2026at Valencia2.651.553–2
13 Sep 2026v Atletico Madrid0.272.050–3
7 Sep 2026at Elche0.582.473–2
3 Sep 2026v Celta Vigo1.050.430–0
29 Aug 2026v Espanyol1.820.772–1
26 Aug 2026at Real Madrid0.573.141–4

Rayo Vallecano

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Rayo Vallecano: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
31 Oct 2026v Celta Vigo1.131.413–0
24 Oct 2026v Elche1.612.630–3
19 Oct 2026at Getafe2.260.611–1
19 Sep 2026at Osasuna1.010.531–1
15 Sep 2026v Espanyol1.521.492–1
12 Sep 2026at Real Madrid1.212.621–4
5 Sep 2026v Racing Santander1.610.483–2
31 Aug 2026at Barcelona1.213.042–5
20 Aug 2026v Alaves0.422.001–1
15 Aug 2026at Sevilla1.892.191–2

This league season

La Liga matches since 15 Aug 2026.

Real SociedadRayo Vallecano
11 of 11Matches with xG10 of 10
19Points in those matches12
14.28xPts12.52
15.57xG for13.87
18.62xG against17.00

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Real Sociedad and Rayo Vallecano

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

Team news not available yet.

Updated 6 Nov 2026, 18:33 GMT

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