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La Liga
Rayo Vallecano
3–0Finished
Celta Vigo
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 15:15 GMTMatchday 11 · Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid

Rayo Vallecano v Celta Vigo match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 31 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo meet in La Liga with the model assessing the match as closely fought. Rayo are given a 39% win probability, while Celta have a 32% chance and a draw is assessed at 29%. Expected goals total 2.48, with Rayo's attacking advantage marginal at 1.3 to 1.18. Rayo are without three defenders and Celta lack several attacking options including Iglesias, Nunez and Roman.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 39%Rayo Vallecano win
  • 29%Draw
  • 32%Celta Vigo win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano

Last 5: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 defeat

  1. drew1–1final 3–2at Recreativo Huelva
  2. lost0–3v Elche
  3. drew1–1at Getafe
  4. drew1–1at Osasuna
  5. won2–1v Espanyol
Celta VigoCelta Vigo

Last 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat

  1. drew0–0v Real Betis
  2. won2–1at Celtic
  3. won2–1v Alaves
  4. lost1–2v Juventus
  5. drew0–0at Elche

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Rayo Vallecano won 19 of 36 matches in which they scored first, since 8 Nov 2024.
  • Celta Vigo won 28 of 46 matches in which they scored first, since 4 Nov 2024.
  • Celta Vigo won 3 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Under 2.5 goals in 8 of Celta Vigo's last 10 away league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Rayo Vallecano 2, draws 5, Celta Vigo 3

Goals: Rayo Vallecano 5, Celta Vigo 11

DateMatchScore
18 Jan 2026Celta Vigo v Rayo Vallecano3–0
21 Sep 2025Rayo Vallecano v Celta Vigo1–1
18 May 2025Celta Vigo v Rayo Vallecano1–2
10 Jan 2025Rayo Vallecano v Celta Vigo2–1
31 Mar 2024Celta Vigo v Rayo Vallecano0–0
11 Dec 2023Rayo Vallecano v Celta Vigo0–0
11 Mar 2023Celta Vigo v Rayo Vallecano3–0
10 Nov 2022Rayo Vallecano v Celta Vigo0–0
5 Feb 2022Celta Vigo v Rayo Vallecano2–0
1 Nov 2021Rayo Vallecano v Celta Vigo0–0

Home and away

Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano at home

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • LostElche24 Oct 20260–3
  • WonEspanyol15 Sep 20262–1
  • WonRacing Santander5 Sep 20263–2
  • DrawnAlaves20 Aug 20261–1
  • WonVillarreal17 May 20262–0

Rayo Vallecano: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
15 scored, 12 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Celta Vigo

Celta Vigo away

Last 5: 1 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonCelticUEFA Europa League22 Oct 20262–1
  • DrawnElche11 Oct 20260–0
  • LostOmonia NicosiaUEFA Europa League16 Sep 20260–1
  • DrawnGetafe7 Sep 20261–1
  • DrawnReal Sociedad3 Sep 20260–0

Celta Vigo: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
8 scored, 8 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
2 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Rayo Vallecano
Last match
4 days before27 Oct 2026 · v Recreativo Huelva · Copa del Rey
Next match
8 days after8 Nov 2026 · v Real Sociedad · La Liga
Celta Vigo
Last match
6 days before25 Oct 2026 · v Real Betis · La Liga
Next match
5 days after5 Nov 2026 · v Union St. Gilloise · UEFA Europa League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Rayo Vallecano

Since 8 Nov 2024

ScoreRayo VallecanoLeague sides
Scored first19 won, 13 drawn, 4 lost in 36 matches771 won, 248 drawn, 145 lost in 1164 matches
Conceded first4 won, 10 drawn, 21 lost in 35 matches145 won, 248 drawn, 771 lost in 1164 matches
Level at half-time10 won, 14 drawn, 4 lost in 28 matches347 won, 378 drawn, 347 lost in 1072 matches
1 goal down at half-time1 won, 6 drawn, 13 lost in 20 matches61 won, 127 drawn, 331 lost in 519 matches
Level after 60 minutes8 won, 17 drawn, 8 lost in 33 matches265 won, 386 drawn, 265 lost in 916 matches
Level after 70 minutes6 won, 21 drawn, 7 lost in 34 matches209 won, 424 drawn, 209 lost in 842 matches
Level after 80 minutes5 won, 22 drawn, 5 lost in 32 matches155 won, 456 drawn, 155 lost in 766 matches
Level after 15 minutes13 won, 24 drawn, 14 lost in 51 matches651 won, 492 drawn, 651 lost in 1794 matches
Level after 30 minutes14 won, 17 drawn, 7 lost in 38 matches479 won, 428 drawn, 479 lost in 1386 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes2 won, 5 drawn, 14 lost in 21 matches61 won, 102 drawn, 297 lost in 460 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreRayo VallecanoLeague sides
All matches14 scored, 23 conceded (75)801 scored, 801 conceded (2480)
When leading after 75 minutes1 scored, 4 conceded (21)286 scored, 278 conceded (840)
When level after 75 minutes7 scored, 11 conceded (33)237 scored, 237 conceded (800)
When trailing after 75 minutes6 scored, 8 conceded (21)278 scored, 286 conceded (840)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 38 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 20(league sides: 1,306 times, within 15 minutes 213, by full time 609)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Celta Vigo

Since 4 Nov 2024

ScoreCelta VigoLeague sides
Scored first28 won, 12 drawn, 6 lost in 46 matches771 won, 248 drawn, 145 lost in 1164 matches
Conceded first8 won, 8 drawn, 24 lost in 40 matches145 won, 248 drawn, 771 lost in 1164 matches
1 goal up at half-time9 won, 8 drawn, 3 lost in 20 matches331 won, 127 drawn, 61 lost in 519 matches
Level at half-time17 won, 12 drawn, 11 lost in 40 matches347 won, 378 drawn, 347 lost in 1072 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes12 won, 7 drawn, 3 lost in 22 matches371 won, 121 drawn, 39 lost in 531 matches
Level after 60 minutes12 won, 14 drawn, 11 lost in 37 matches265 won, 386 drawn, 265 lost in 916 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes16 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches401 won, 105 drawn, 26 lost in 532 matches
Level after 70 minutes10 won, 18 drawn, 7 lost in 35 matches209 won, 424 drawn, 209 lost in 842 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes20 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 25 matches415 won, 90 drawn, 12 lost in 517 matches
Level after 80 minutes6 won, 18 drawn, 5 lost in 29 matches155 won, 456 drawn, 155 lost in 766 matches
Level after 15 minutes28 won, 19 drawn, 21 lost in 68 matches651 won, 492 drawn, 651 lost in 1794 matches
Level after 30 minutes27 won, 15 drawn, 18 lost in 60 matches479 won, 428 drawn, 479 lost in 1386 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreCelta VigoLeague sides
All matches32 scored, 24 conceded (92)801 scored, 801 conceded (2480)
When leading after 75 minutes12 scored, 11 conceded (34)286 scored, 278 conceded (840)
When level after 75 minutes11 scored, 10 conceded (32)237 scored, 237 conceded (800)
When trailing after 75 minutes9 scored, 3 conceded (26)278 scored, 286 conceded (840)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 49 times, equalised within 15 minutes 10, by full time 26(league sides: 1,306 times, within 15 minutes 213, by full time 609)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

Rayo VallecanoCelta Vigo
74Since 8 Nov 2024Matches with xG75Since 4 Nov 2024
99.34xG for99.22
82Goals scored105
100.78xG against90.63
99Goals conceded92

Rayo Vallecano

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Rayo Vallecano: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
24 Oct 2026v Elche1.612.630–3
19 Oct 2026at Getafe2.260.611–1
19 Sep 2026at Osasuna1.010.531–1
15 Sep 2026v Espanyol1.521.492–1
12 Sep 2026at Real Madrid1.212.621–4
5 Sep 2026v Racing Santander1.610.483–2
31 Aug 2026at Barcelona1.213.042–5
20 Aug 2026v Alaves0.422.001–1
15 Aug 2026at Sevilla1.892.191–2
23 May 2026at Alaves1.341.632–1

Celta Vigo

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Celta Vigo: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
25 Oct 2026v Real Betis0.761.150–0
18 Oct 2026v Alaves0.971.062–1
11 Oct 2026at Elche0.470.780–0
19 Sep 2026v Racing Santander2.140.755–0
13 Sep 2026v Malaga1.900.431–1
7 Sep 2026at Getafe1.030.651–1
3 Sep 2026at Real Sociedad0.431.050–0
30 Aug 2026v Athletic Club0.752.780–2
27 Aug 2026v Osasuna0.142.601–2
22 Aug 2026at Valencia0.660.580–0

This league season

La Liga matches since 15 Aug 2026.

Rayo VallecanoCelta Vigo
9 of 9Matches with xG10 of 10
9Points in those matches12
11.35xPts12.27
12.74xG for9.25
15.59xG against11.83

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
    Ruled out
    A. Batalla (Broken calfbone) · P. Ciss (Yellow Cards) · Luiz Felipe (Knee Injury)
    Doubtful
    A. Ratiu (Muscle Injury)
  • Celta VigoCelta Vigo
    Ruled out
    H. F. Cuenca Martinez (Muscle Injury) · J. El Abdellaoui (Knee Injury) · B. Iglesias (Calf Injury) · A. Nunez (Groin Injury) · M. Roman (Knee Injury) · C. Starfelt (Muscle Injury)

Published 31 Oct 2026, 14:13 GMT · not changed since

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