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La Liga
Sevilla
20:00
Alaves
Fri 6 Nov 2026 · GMTMatchday 12 · Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán, Seville

Sevilla v Alaves · analysis and preview

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Most likely: Sevilla win

Sevilla host Alaves in La Liga with the model estimating a 45% chance of a home win, 27% for a draw and 28% for an away victory. Expected goals stand at 1.51 for Sevilla and 1.17 for Alaves, a gap of 0.34 in Sevilla's favour. Sevilla have two wins in their last five matches; Alaves have one.

How the match could end · our estimate

  • 45%Sevilla win
  • 27%Draw
  • 28%Alaves win

PRO analysis

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Form · newest first

SevillaSevilla

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

  1. lost1–3at Getafe
  2. won3–0at Hortaleza
  3. won2–0v Osasuna
  4. lost1–4at Real Madrid
  5. drew3–3at Levante
AlavesAlaves

Last 5: no wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats

  1. lost1–6at Barcelona
  2. drew1–1v Malaga
  3. lost1–2at Celta Vigo
  4. lost1–2v Atletico Madrid
  5. drew0–0at Athletic Club

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Sevilla won 19 of 33 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Nov 2024.
  • Alaves won 17 of 32 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Nov 2024.
  • Alaves won 4 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Alaves without a win in their last 5 away games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Sevilla 2, draws 4, Alaves 4

Goals: Sevilla 13, Alaves 15

DateMatchScore
14 Feb 2026Sevilla v Alaves1–1
17 Dec 2025Alaves v SevillaCopa del Rey1–0
20 Sep 2025Alaves v Sevilla1–2
20 Apr 2025Sevilla v Alaves1–1
20 Sep 2024Alaves v Sevilla2–1
12 Jan 2024Sevilla v Alaves2–3
21 Aug 2023Alaves v Sevilla4–3
17 Jan 2023Alaves v SevillaCopa del Rey0–1
4 Mar 2022Alaves v Sevilla0–0
20 Nov 2021Sevilla v Alaves2–2

Home and away

Sevilla

Sevilla at home

Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost

  • WonOsasuna26 Oct 20262–0
  • LostBarcelona19 Sep 20261–3
  • WonValencia11 Sep 20261–0
  • LostAtletico Madrid29 Aug 20261–3
  • WonRayo Vallecano15 Aug 20262–1

Sevilla: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
12 scored, 12 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Alaves

Alaves away

Last 5: 0 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost

  • LostBarcelona31 Oct 20261–6
  • LostCelta Vigo18 Oct 20261–2
  • DrawnAthletic Club19 Sep 20260–0
  • LostRacing Santander12 Sep 20261–2
  • DrawnRayo Vallecano20 Aug 20261–1

Alaves: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
14 scored, 20 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Sevilla
Last match
5 days before1 Nov 2026 · v Getafe · La Liga
Next match
Not known
Alaves
Last match
6 days before31 Oct 2026 · v Barcelona · La Liga
Next match
4 days after10 Nov 2026 · v Anaitasuna · Copa del Rey

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 9 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Sevilla

ScoreSevillaLeague sides
Scored first19 won, 8 drawn, 6 lost in 33 matches778 won, 248 drawn, 147 lost in 1173 matches
Conceded first5 won, 8 drawn, 29 lost in 42 matches147 won, 248 drawn, 778 lost in 1173 matches
Level at half-time13 won, 8 drawn, 15 lost in 36 matches348 won, 378 drawn, 348 lost in 1074 matches
Level after 60 minutes8 won, 9 drawn, 9 lost in 26 matches266 won, 386 drawn, 266 lost in 918 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes1 won, 3 drawn, 16 lost in 20 matches41 won, 121 drawn, 373 lost in 535 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes1 won, 6 drawn, 16 lost in 23 matches26 won, 105 drawn, 404 lost in 535 matches
Level after 80 minutes4 won, 8 drawn, 8 lost in 20 matches156 won, 456 drawn, 156 lost in 768 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes1 won, 6 drawn, 14 lost in 21 matches12 won, 90 drawn, 419 lost in 521 matches
Level after 15 minutes16 won, 10 drawn, 28 lost in 54 matches657 won, 492 drawn, 657 lost in 1806 matches
Level after 30 minutes13 won, 9 drawn, 22 lost in 44 matches485 won, 428 drawn, 485 lost in 1398 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreSevillaLeague sides
All matches25 scored, 29 conceded (76)805 scored, 805 conceded (2498)
When leading after 75 minutes6 scored, 8 conceded (24)288 scored, 279 conceded (848)
When trailing after 75 minutes14 scored, 14 conceded (34)279 scored, 288 conceded (848)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 49 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 22(league sides: 1,317 times, within 15 minutes 213, by full time 612)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Alaves

ScoreAlavesLeague sides
Scored first17 won, 9 drawn, 6 lost in 32 matches778 won, 248 drawn, 147 lost in 1173 matches
Conceded first3 won, 12 drawn, 25 lost in 40 matches147 won, 248 drawn, 778 lost in 1173 matches
Level at half-time8 won, 14 drawn, 16 lost in 38 matches348 won, 378 drawn, 348 lost in 1074 matches
Level after 60 minutes8 won, 12 drawn, 12 lost in 32 matches266 won, 386 drawn, 266 lost in 918 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes1 won, 6 drawn, 13 lost in 20 matches41 won, 121 drawn, 373 lost in 535 matches
Level after 70 minutes6 won, 14 drawn, 10 lost in 30 matches211 won, 424 drawn, 211 lost in 846 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes1 won, 5 drawn, 14 lost in 20 matches26 won, 105 drawn, 404 lost in 535 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes17 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches419 won, 90 drawn, 12 lost in 521 matches
Level after 80 minutes1 won, 14 drawn, 8 lost in 23 matches156 won, 456 drawn, 156 lost in 768 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes0 won, 6 drawn, 16 lost in 22 matches12 won, 90 drawn, 419 lost in 521 matches
Level after 15 minutes15 won, 14 drawn, 24 lost in 53 matches657 won, 492 drawn, 657 lost in 1806 matches
Level after 30 minutes12 won, 15 drawn, 19 lost in 46 matches485 won, 428 drawn, 485 lost in 1398 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreAlavesLeague sides
All matches22 scored, 30 conceded (75)805 scored, 805 conceded (2498)
When leading after 75 minutes3 scored, 10 conceded (21)288 scored, 279 conceded (848)
When level after 75 minutes10 scored, 14 conceded (29)238 scored, 238 conceded (802)
When trailing after 75 minutes9 scored, 6 conceded (25)279 scored, 288 conceded (848)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 42 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 22(league sides: 1,317 times, within 15 minutes 213, by full time 612)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 9 Nov 2024

SevillaAlaves
75Matches with xG75
78.23xG for90.75
93Goals scored83
103.43xG against92.60
117Goals conceded102

Sevilla

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Sevilla: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
1 Nov 2026at Getafe0.741.621–3
26 Oct 2026v Osasuna1.200.632–0
18 Oct 2026at Real Madrid0.752.281–4
12 Oct 2026at Levante2.201.823–3
19 Sep 2026v Barcelona0.403.471–3
16 Sep 2026at Deportivo La Coruna0.730.141–0
11 Sep 2026v Valencia0.930.101–0
6 Sep 2026at Espanyol0.531.231–1
29 Aug 2026v Atletico Madrid0.900.931–3
22 Aug 2026at Athletic Club0.411.253–1

Alaves

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Alaves: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
31 Oct 2026at Barcelona0.783.301–6
23 Oct 2026v Malaga1.550.491–1
18 Oct 2026at Celta Vigo1.060.971–2
10 Oct 2026v Atletico Madrid1.302.051–2
19 Sep 2026at Athletic Club0.051.620–0
15 Sep 2026v Valencia1.050.650–1
12 Sep 2026at Racing Santander1.982.011–2
6 Sep 2026v Osasuna1.201.645–2
28 Aug 2026v Villarreal0.811.401–0
20 Aug 2026at Rayo Vallecano2.000.421–1

This league season

La Liga matches since 15 Aug 2026.

SevillaAlaves
11 of 11Matches with xG11 of 11
17Points in those matches12
13.09xPts15.03
10.98xG for13.71
15.36xG against14.79

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Sevilla and Alaves

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • SevillaSevilla
    Ruled out
    M. Bueno (Red Card) · Marcao (Muscle Injury) · Peque (Hamstring Injury)
    Doubtful
    I. Romero (Knee Injury) · M. Sierra (Shoulder Injury)
  • AlavesAlaves
    Ruled out
    M. Rodriguez (Ankle Injury)

Updated 6 Nov 2026, 18:57 GMT

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