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La Liga
Elche
0–1Finished
Valencia
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 17:30 GMTMatchday 11 · Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche

Elche v Valencia match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 1 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Elche hold a 48% chance of victory over Valencia, who have a 25% chance, with a 27% probability of a draw. Elche have won three of five recent matches, while Valencia's form is poor with only one win in five. Valencia arrive without seven players due to injury, significantly weakening their squad.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 48%Elche win
  • 27%Draw
  • 25%Valencia win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

ElcheElche

Last 5: 3 wins, 2 draws, no defeats

  1. won3–1at Pinatar
  2. won3–0at Rayo Vallecano
  3. drew0–0at Villarreal
  4. drew0–0v Celta Vigo
  5. won3–1at Espanyol
ValenciaValencia

Last 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats

  1. lost1–2v Villarreal
  2. drew0–0v Athletic Club
  3. drew2–2at Racing Santander
  4. lost2–3v Real Sociedad
  5. won1–0at Alaves

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Elche avoided defeat in 10 of 28 matches in which their opponent scored first, since 18 Aug 2025.
  • La Liga, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 255 of 320.
  • Valencia won 3 of the last 6 meetings.
  • Under 2.5 goals in 7 of Valencia's last 10 away league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

6 meetings: Elche 1, draws 2, Valencia 3

Goals: Elche 5, Valencia 8

DateMatchScore
11 Apr 2026Elche v Valencia1–0
10 Jan 2026Valencia v Elche1–1
23 Apr 2023Elche v Valencia0–2
15 Oct 2022Valencia v Elche2–2
19 Mar 2022Elche v Valencia0–1
11 Dec 2021Valencia v Elche2–1

Home and away

Elche

Elche at home

Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost

  • DrawnCelta Vigo11 Oct 20260–0
  • LostReal Madrid15 Sep 20262–3
  • LostReal Sociedad7 Sep 20262–3
  • LostBarcelona23 Aug 20260–5
  • WonGetafe17 May 20261–0

Elche: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
14 scored, 17 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Valencia

Valencia away

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • DrawnRacing Santander11 Oct 20262–2
  • WonAlaves15 Sep 20261–0
  • LostSevilla11 Sep 20260–1
  • LostDeportivo La Coruna30 Aug 20261–3
  • WonReal Sociedad17 May 20264–3

Valencia: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
12 scored, 12 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
4 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
3 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Elche
Last match
5 days before27 Oct 2026 · v Pinatar · Copa del Rey
Next match
7 days after8 Nov 2026 · v Real Betis · La Liga
Valencia
Last match
8 days before24 Oct 2026 · v Villarreal · La Liga
Next match
6 days after7 Nov 2026 · v Real Madrid · La Liga

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 18 Aug 2025. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Elche

ScoreElcheLeague sides
Conceded first3 won, 7 drawn, 18 lost in 28 matches146 won, 248 drawn, 775 lost in 1169 matches
Level at half-time6 won, 11 drawn, 7 lost in 24 matches347 won, 378 drawn, 347 lost in 1072 matches
Level after 15 minutes9 won, 14 drawn, 9 lost in 32 matches655 won, 492 drawn, 655 lost in 1802 matches
Level after 30 minutes6 won, 11 drawn, 9 lost in 26 matches482 won, 428 drawn, 482 lost in 1392 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreElcheLeague sides
All matches16 scored, 22 conceded (49)804 scored, 804 conceded (2490)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 31 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 18(league sides: 1,312 times, within 15 minutes 213, by full time 610)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

ElcheValencia
48Since 18 Aug 2025Matches with xG75Since 23 Nov 2024
54.62xG for95.04
63Goals scored89
81.30xG against95.64
74Goals conceded109

Elche

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Elche: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
24 Oct 2026at Rayo Vallecano2.631.613–0
17 Oct 2026at Villarreal0.312.230–0
11 Oct 2026v Celta Vigo0.780.470–0
18 Sep 2026at Espanyol1.611.053–1
15 Sep 2026v Real Madrid0.783.612–3
12 Sep 2026at Athletic Club0.842.391–1
7 Sep 2026v Real Sociedad2.470.582–3
28 Aug 2026at Racing Santander1.031.722–3
23 Aug 2026v Barcelona0.704.380–5
17 Aug 2026at Deportivo La Coruna1.230.341–1

Valencia

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Valencia: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
24 Oct 2026v Villarreal1.171.521–2
17 Oct 2026v Athletic Club1.490.650–0
11 Oct 2026at Racing Santander1.801.282–2
20 Sep 2026v Real Sociedad1.552.652–3
15 Sep 2026at Alaves0.651.051–0
11 Sep 2026at Sevilla0.100.930–1
6 Sep 2026v Barcelona0.664.080–5
30 Aug 2026at Deportivo La Coruna1.401.421–3
25 Aug 2026v Real Betis1.120.710–1
22 Aug 2026v Celta Vigo0.580.660–0

This league season

La Liga matches since 15 Aug 2026.

ElcheValencia
10 of 10Matches with xG10 of 10
10Points in those matches6
11.91xPts11.54
12.38xG for10.52
18.38xG against14.95

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Elche and Valencia

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • ElcheElche
    Ruled out
    M. Aguado (Ankle Injury)
  • ValenciaValencia
    Ruled out
    S. Canos (Knee Injury) · J. Copete (Coach's decision) · H. Elliott (Red Card) · D. Lopez (Knee Injury) · D. Otorbi (Hamstring Injury) · K. van Oevelen (Knee Injury)

Published 1 Nov 2026, 16:28 GMT · not changed since

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