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La Liga
Racing Santander
0–3Finished
Real Madrid
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 15:15 GMTMatchday 11 · El Sardinero, Santander

Racing Santander v Real Madrid match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 1 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Real Madrid arrive as clear favourites with a 66% chance of winning, underpinned by expected goals of 2.4 to Racing Santander's 1.1—a gap of 1.3 in Madrid's favour. Madrid have won five consecutive matches, while Racing have taken wins in two of their last five. Madrid will be without Rodrygo and Vinicius Junior, and Valverde is doubtful; Racing's Salinas is ruled out.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 15%Racing Santander win
  • 19%Draw
  • 66%Real Madrid win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Racing SantanderRacing Santander

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

  1. won2–0at Ribadesella CF
  2. won2–1v Espanyol
  3. lost0–2at Osasuna
  4. drew2–2v Valencia
  5. lost0–5at Celta Vigo
Real MadridReal Madrid

Last 5: 5 wins, no draws, no defeats

  1. won2–1at Barcelona
  2. won4–1v RB Leipzig
  3. won4–1v Sevilla
  4. won4–3at AS Roma
  5. won1–0v Villarreal

Head-to-head

Head-to-head data was not available for this match.

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • La Liga, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 255 of 320.
  • Racing Santander unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 10 of Racing Santander's last 10 home league games.
  • Both teams scored in 10 of Racing Santander's last 10 home league games.

Home and away

Racing Santander

Racing Santander at home

Last 5: 3 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonEspanyol24 Oct 20262–1
  • DrawnValencia11 Oct 20262–2
  • WonAlaves12 Sep 20262–1
  • WonElche28 Aug 20263–2
  • DrawnVillarreal16 Aug 20262–2

Racing Santander: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
31 scored, 14 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
10 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
10 of 10
Clean sheets
0 of 10
Real Madrid

Real Madrid away

Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost

  • WonBarcelona25 Oct 20262–1
  • WonAS RomaUEFA Champions League14 Oct 20264–3
  • LostAtletico Madrid20 Sep 20261–2
  • WonElche15 Sep 20263–2
  • LostReal Betis4 Sep 20260–1

Real Madrid: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
13 scored, 12 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Racing Santander
Last match
3 days before29 Oct 2026 · v Ribadesella CF · Copa del Rey
Next match
6 days after7 Nov 2026 · v Malaga · La Liga
Real Madrid
Last match
7 days before25 Oct 2026 · v Barcelona · La Liga
Next match
3 days after4 Nov 2026 · v AEK Athens FC · UEFA Champions League

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 9 Nov 2024

Racing SantanderReal Madrid
—Matches with xG75
—xG for157.50
—Goals scored159
—xG against83.18
—Goals conceded72

Real Madrid

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Real Madrid: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
25 Oct 2026at Barcelona2.001.272–1
18 Oct 2026v Sevilla2.280.754–1
10 Oct 2026v Villarreal1.430.591–0
20 Sep 2026at Atletico Madrid0.302.351–2
15 Sep 2026at Elche3.610.783–2
12 Sep 2026v Rayo Vallecano2.621.214–1
4 Sep 2026at Real Betis3.460.930–1
30 Aug 2026v Malaga2.620.714–0
26 Aug 2026v Real Sociedad3.140.574–1
22 Aug 2026at Espanyol2.711.052–1

This league season

La Liga matches since 15 Aug 2026.

Racing SantanderReal Madrid
10 of 10Matches with xG10 of 10
11Points in those matches24
11.72xPts21.44
14.18xG for24.17
21.48xG against10.21

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Racing Santander and Real Madrid

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • Racing SantanderRacing Santander
    Ruled out
    A. Martin (Muscle Injury) · J. Salinas (Yellow Cards)
  • Real MadridReal Madrid
    Ruled out
    R. Asencio (Broken Leg) · F. Mendy (Hip Injury) · Rodrygo (Knee Injury) · F. Valverde (Hamstring Injury) · Vinicius Junior (Red Card)

Published 1 Nov 2026, 14:13 GMT · not changed since

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