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La Liga
Athletic Club
2–1Finished
Real Sociedad
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 20:00 GMTMatchday 11 · San Mamés Stadium, Bilbao

Athletic Club v Real Sociedad match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 1 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Athletic Club host Real Sociedad where the model gives the hosts a 43% chance of victory, the visitors 30%, and a draw 27%. Real Sociedad arrive in stronger form with four wins in their last five, while Athletic Club have won two of their last five. Expected goals stand at 1.51 for Athletic Club and 1.24 for Real Sociedad, a gap of 0.27 in the hosts' favour.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 43%Athletic Club win
  • 27%Draw
  • 30%Real Sociedad win

PRO analysis

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Athletic ClubAthletic Club

Last 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat

  1. won6–1at Prat
  2. won4–0v Getafe
  3. lost1–3at Levante
  4. drew0–0at Valencia
  5. drew0–0v Alaves
Real SociedadReal Sociedad

Last 5: 4 wins, 1 draw, no defeats

  1. won2–1v Levante
  2. won6–0at Lillestrom
  3. won5–2at Malaga
  4. drew1–1at Union St. Gilloise
  5. won3–2v Deportivo La Coruna

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Athletic Club won 31 of 38 matches in which they scored first, since 3 Nov 2024.
  • La Liga, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 255 of 320.
  • Real Sociedad won 5 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Real Sociedad unbeaten in their last 5 away games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Athletic Club 3, draws 2, Real Sociedad 5

Goals: Athletic Club 9, Real Sociedad 13

DateMatchScore
4 Mar 2026Real Sociedad v Athletic ClubCopa del Rey1–0
11 Feb 2026Athletic Club v Real SociedadCopa del Rey0–1
1 Feb 2026Athletic Club v Real Sociedad1–1
1 Nov 2025Real Sociedad v Athletic Club3–2
4 May 2025Real Sociedad v Athletic Club0–0
24 Nov 2024Athletic Club v Real Sociedad1–0
13 Jan 2024Athletic Club v Real Sociedad2–1
30 Sep 2023Real Sociedad v Athletic Club3–0
15 Apr 2023Athletic Club v Real Sociedad2–0
14 Jan 2023Real Sociedad v Athletic Club3–1

Home and away

Athletic Club

Athletic Club at home

Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonGetafe25 Oct 20264–0
  • DrawnAlaves19 Sep 20260–0
  • DrawnElche12 Sep 20261–1
  • WonAtletico Madrid5 Sep 20263–0
  • LostSevilla22 Aug 20261–3

Athletic Club: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
14 scored, 9 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10
Real Sociedad

Real Sociedad away

Last 5: 4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonLillestromUEFA Europa League22 Oct 20266–0
  • WonMalaga18 Oct 20265–2
  • DrawnUnion St. GilloiseUEFA Europa League15 Oct 20261–1
  • WonValencia20 Sep 20263–2
  • WonElche7 Sep 20263–2

Real Sociedad: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
18 scored, 20 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
0 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Athletic Club
Last match
3 days before29 Oct 2026 · v Prat · Copa del Rey
Next match
6 days after7 Nov 2026 · v Osasuna · La Liga
Real Sociedad
Last match
7 days before25 Oct 2026 · v Levante · La Liga
Next match
4 days after5 Nov 2026 · v Lyon · UEFA Europa League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 3 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Athletic Club

ScoreAthletic ClubLeague sides
Scored first31 won, 1 drawn, 6 lost in 38 matches776 won, 248 drawn, 146 lost in 1170 matches
Conceded first8 won, 11 drawn, 27 lost in 46 matches146 won, 248 drawn, 776 lost in 1170 matches
Level at half-time13 won, 15 drawn, 17 lost in 45 matches347 won, 378 drawn, 347 lost in 1072 matches
Level after 60 minutes14 won, 16 drawn, 11 lost in 41 matches265 won, 386 drawn, 265 lost in 916 matches
Level after 70 minutes10 won, 18 drawn, 8 lost in 36 matches210 won, 424 drawn, 210 lost in 844 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes2 won, 4 drawn, 15 lost in 21 matches26 won, 105 drawn, 402 lost in 533 matches
Level after 80 minutes6 won, 20 drawn, 4 lost in 30 matches155 won, 456 drawn, 155 lost in 766 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes0 won, 2 drawn, 18 lost in 20 matches12 won, 90 drawn, 417 lost in 519 matches
Level after 15 minutes29 won, 18 drawn, 25 lost in 72 matches655 won, 492 drawn, 655 lost in 1802 matches
Level after 30 minutes16 won, 18 drawn, 18 lost in 52 matches482 won, 428 drawn, 482 lost in 1392 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes7 won, 3 drawn, 11 lost in 21 matches62 won, 102 drawn, 297 lost in 461 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreAthletic ClubLeague sides
All matches35 scored, 32 conceded (94)804 scored, 804 conceded (2492)
When leading after 75 minutes16 scored, 7 conceded (31)288 scored, 279 conceded (846)
When level after 75 minutes12 scored, 8 conceded (32)237 scored, 237 conceded (800)
When trailing after 75 minutes7 scored, 17 conceded (31)279 scored, 288 conceded (846)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 52 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 25(league sides: 1,313 times, within 15 minutes 213, by full time 610)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 3 Nov 2024

Athletic ClubReal Sociedad
74Matches with xG75
102.90xG for96.67
92Goals scored105
79.46xG against104.46
85Goals conceded115

Athletic Club

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Athletic Club: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
25 Oct 2026v Getafe0.740.414–0
21 Oct 2026at Levante1.952.041–3
17 Oct 2026at Valencia0.651.490–0
19 Sep 2026v Alaves1.620.050–0
12 Sep 2026v Elche2.390.841–1
5 Sep 2026v Atletico Madrid1.411.023–0
30 Aug 2026at Celta Vigo2.780.752–0
27 Aug 2026at Barcelona0.254.230–2
22 Aug 2026v Sevilla1.250.411–3
23 May 2026at Real Madrid0.811.902–4

Real Sociedad

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Real Sociedad: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
25 Oct 2026v Levante2.220.482–1
18 Oct 2026at Malaga2.441.245–2
11 Oct 2026v Deportivo La Coruna1.442.133–2
20 Sep 2026at Valencia2.651.553–2
13 Sep 2026v Atletico Madrid0.272.050–3
7 Sep 2026at Elche0.582.473–2
3 Sep 2026v Celta Vigo1.050.430–0
29 Aug 2026v Espanyol1.820.772–1
26 Aug 2026at Real Madrid0.573.141–4
21 Aug 2026at Real Betis1.361.240–1

This league season

La Liga matches since 15 Aug 2026.

Athletic ClubReal Sociedad
9 of 9Matches with xG10 of 10
12Points in those matches19
14.82xPts13.82
13.04xG for14.40
11.24xG against15.50

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Athletic Club and Real Sociedad

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • Athletic ClubAthletic Club
    Ruled out
    U. Egiluz (Knee Injury) · G. Guruzeta (Knee Injury) · I. Ruiz de Galarreta (Hamstring Injury)
  • Real SociedadReal Sociedad
    Ruled out
    L. Beitia (Ankle Injury) · A. Odriozola (Knee Injury) · A. Zakharyan (Ankle Injury)

Published 1 Nov 2026, 18:58 GMT · not changed since

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