Portsmouth v Stoke City match analysis
Our selection
PRO members see our selection for this match.
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 7 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 41%Portsmouth win
- 29%Draw
- 30%Stoke City win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
PortsmouthLast 5: 3 wins, 2 draws, no defeats
- won3–1v Swansea
- drew0–0at Burnley
- won2–1v Millwall
- drew1–1at Wolves
- won1–0at Norwich
Stoke CityLast 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat
- won2–1at Blackburn
- won2–0v Preston
- drew0–0v Bristol City
- won1–0at Derby
- lost2–3v Middlesbrough
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Portsmouth won 29 of 41 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Nov 2024.
- Stoke City won 26 of 41 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Nov 2024.
- Portsmouth unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
- Stoke City unbeaten in their last 5 away games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
4 meetings: Portsmouth 2, draws 0, Stoke City 2
Goals: Portsmouth 7, Stoke City 9
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2026 | Stoke City v Portsmouth | 1–3 |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Portsmouth v Stoke City | 0–1 |
| 22 Jan 2025 | Portsmouth v Stoke City | 3–1 |
| 2 Oct 2024 | Stoke City v Portsmouth | 6–1 |
Home and away
PortsmouthPortsmouth at home
Last 5: 4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost
- WonSwansea3 Nov 20263–1
- WonMillwall24 Oct 20262–1
- WonSheffield Utd14 Oct 20263–2
- DrawnBlackburn19 Sep 20262–2
- WonCardiff5 Sep 20262–0
Portsmouth: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 17 scored, 12 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
Stoke CityStoke City away
Last 5: 4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost
- WonBlackburn3 Nov 20262–1
- WonDerby17 Oct 20261–0
- WonBolton10 Oct 20262–1
- WonWatford12 Sep 20262–1
- DrawnCardiff8 Sep 20261–1
Stoke City: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 10 scored, 17 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Portsmouth- Last match
- 4 days before3 Nov 2026 · v Swansea · Championship
- Next match
- 14 days after21 Nov 2026 · v Bolton · Championship
Stoke City- Last match
- 4 days before3 Nov 2026 · v Blackburn · Championship
- Next match
- 14 days after21 Nov 2026 · v Birmingham · Championship
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 9 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Portsmouth
| Score | Portsmouth | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 29 won, 9 drawn, 3 lost in 41 matches | 1138 won, 353 drawn, 221 lost in 1712 matches |
| Conceded first | 4 won, 8 drawn, 33 lost in 45 matches | 221 won, 353 drawn, 1138 lost in 1712 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 15 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 20 matches | 518 won, 167 drawn, 96 lost in 781 matches |
| Level at half-time | 10 won, 15 drawn, 10 lost in 35 matches | 467 won, 584 drawn, 467 lost in 1518 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 2 won, 4 drawn, 15 lost in 21 matches | 96 won, 167 drawn, 518 lost in 781 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 8 won, 18 drawn, 10 lost in 36 matches | 344 won, 590 drawn, 344 lost in 1278 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 5 won, 17 drawn, 8 lost in 30 matches | 279 won, 640 drawn, 279 lost in 1198 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 4 won, 20 drawn, 4 lost in 28 matches | 175 won, 712 drawn, 175 lost in 1062 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 28 won, 18 drawn, 22 lost in 68 matches | 937 won, 750 drawn, 937 lost in 2624 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 21 won, 15 drawn, 15 lost in 51 matches | 669 won, 640 drawn, 669 lost in 1978 matches |
| 1 goal down after 30 minutes | 1 won, 4 drawn, 15 lost in 20 matches | 108 won, 149 drawn, 445 lost in 702 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Portsmouth | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 28 scored, 21 conceded (92) | 1065 scored, 1065 conceded (3678) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 8 scored, 4 conceded (29) | 356 scored, 386 conceded (1286) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 8 scored, 9 conceded (28) | 323 scored, 323 conceded (1106) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 12 scored, 8 conceded (35) | 386 scored, 356 conceded (1286) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 47 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 18(league sides: 1,929 times, within 15 minutes 327, by full time 852)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Stoke City
| Score | Stoke City | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 26 won, 8 drawn, 7 lost in 41 matches | 1138 won, 353 drawn, 221 lost in 1712 matches |
| Conceded first | 4 won, 5 drawn, 31 lost in 40 matches | 221 won, 353 drawn, 1138 lost in 1712 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 14 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches | 518 won, 167 drawn, 96 lost in 781 matches |
| Level at half-time | 11 won, 14 drawn, 19 lost in 44 matches | 467 won, 584 drawn, 467 lost in 1518 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 6 won, 17 drawn, 13 lost in 36 matches | 344 won, 590 drawn, 344 lost in 1278 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 6 won, 20 drawn, 11 lost in 37 matches | 279 won, 640 drawn, 279 lost in 1198 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 1 won, 2 drawn, 17 lost in 20 matches | 47 won, 153 drawn, 576 lost in 776 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 4 won, 20 drawn, 8 lost in 32 matches | 175 won, 712 drawn, 175 lost in 1062 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 23 won, 21 drawn, 23 lost in 67 matches | 937 won, 750 drawn, 937 lost in 2624 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 17 won, 16 drawn, 21 lost in 54 matches | 669 won, 640 drawn, 669 lost in 1978 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Stoke City | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 17 scored, 33 conceded (92) | 1065 scored, 1065 conceded (3678) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 5 scored, 10 conceded (28) | 356 scored, 386 conceded (1286) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 11 conceded (32) | 323 scored, 323 conceded (1106) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 12 conceded (32) | 386 scored, 356 conceded (1286) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 46 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 18(league sides: 1,929 times, within 15 minutes 327, by full time 852)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 9 Nov 2024
| Portsmouth | Stoke City | |
|---|---|---|
| 92 | Matches with xG | 92 |
| 110.31 | xG for | 98.84 |
| 113 | Goals scored | 101 |
| 117.49 | xG against | 134.37 |
| 124 | Goals conceded | 117 |
Portsmouth
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov 2026 | v Swansea | 1.44 | 2.31 | 3–1 |
| 31 Oct 2026 | at Burnley | 0.31 | 1.97 | 0–0 |
| 24 Oct 2026 | v Millwall | 0.91 | 0.73 | 2–1 |
| 20 Oct 2026 | at Wolves | 0.78 | 0.95 | 1–1 |
| 17 Oct 2026 | at Norwich | 1.25 | 0.37 | 1–0 |
| 14 Oct 2026 | v Sheffield Utd | 2.01 | 1.80 | 3–2 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | at Southampton | 1.18 | 1.28 | 0–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Blackburn | 1.60 | 0.59 | 2–2 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Charlton | 0.40 | 0.82 | 0–0 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Cardiff | 2.07 | 1.37 | 2–0 |
Stoke City
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov 2026 | at Blackburn | 1.29 | 1.90 | 2–1 |
| 31 Oct 2026 | v Preston | 2.22 | 0.16 | 2–0 |
| 24 Oct 2026 | v Bristol City | 0.71 | 0.79 | 0–0 |
| 17 Oct 2026 | at Derby | 0.62 | 1.07 | 1–0 |
| 13 Oct 2026 | v Middlesbrough | 0.65 | 2.57 | 2–3 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Bolton | 0.74 | 3.13 | 2–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Sheffield Utd | 0.65 | 0.36 | 2–1 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Watford | 1.50 | 0.39 | 2–1 |
| 8 Sep 2026 | at Cardiff | 0.75 | 2.92 | 1–1 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Charlton | 2.14 | 0.61 | 4–0 |
This league season
Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| Portsmouth | Stoke City | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 of 14 | Matches with xG | 14 of 14 |
| 22 | Points in those matches | 26 |
| 19.33 | xPts | 16.04 |
| 17.54 | xG for | 14.26 |
| 17.74 | xG against | 20.94 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Portsmouth and Stoke City
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Team news was not available for this match.
Published 7 Nov 2026, 11:28 GMT · not changed since
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