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Championship
Wrexham
2–0Finished
Middlesbrough
Wed 4 Nov 2026 · 19:45 GMTMatchday 14 · Racecourse Ground, Wrexham

Wrexham v Middlesbrough match analysis

Our selection

PRO members see our selection for this match.

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Wed 4 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Wrexham face an away fixture against Middlesbrough, who have won four of their last five matches. The model gives Wrexham a 34% chance of winning compared to Middlesbrough's 39%, with a 27% chance of a draw. Expected goals total 2.73, with Middlesbrough favoured slightly at 1.44 to 1.29. Wrexham will be without three key players (Broadhead, Cacace, Windass) and S. Revan is doubtful.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 34%Wrexham win
  • 27%Draw
  • 39%Middlesbrough win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

WrexhamWrexham

Last 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats

  1. lost0–1at Sheffield Utd
  2. lost0–2at Blackburn
  3. won4–1v Preston
  4. lost1–2v West Brom
  5. drew1–1at Derby
MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough

Last 5: 4 wins, 1 draw, no defeats

  1. won3–0v Charlton
  2. won5–1at Bolton
  3. drew2–2v Cardiff
  4. won3–2at Stoke City
  5. won1–0v Wolves

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Wrexham won 17 of 29 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Aug 2025.
  • Middlesbrough won 37 of 53 matches in which they scored first, since 5 Nov 2024.
  • Middlesbrough won 1 of the last 3 meetings.
  • Both teams scored in 8 of Wrexham's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

3 meetings: Wrexham 0, draws 2, Middlesbrough 1

Goals: Wrexham 3, Middlesbrough 4

DateMatchScore
7 Aug 2026Middlesbrough v WrexhamLeague Cup1–0
2 May 2026Wrexham v Middlesbrough2–2
25 Oct 2025Middlesbrough v Wrexham1–1

Home and away

Wrexham

Wrexham at home

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • WonPreston17 Oct 20264–1
  • LostWest Brom13 Oct 20261–2
  • WonSouthampton19 Sep 20262–1
  • DrawnBurnley8 Sep 20261–1
  • LostBirmingham28 Aug 20261–2

Wrexham: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
17 scored, 15 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough away

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonBolton23 Oct 20265–1
  • WonStoke City13 Oct 20263–2
  • DrawnBirmingham19 Sep 20262–2
  • LostCrystal PalaceLeague Cup8 Sep 20260–3
  • WonQPR5 Sep 20261–0

Middlesbrough: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
18 scored, 14 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Wrexham
Last match
5 days before30 Oct 2026 · v Sheffield Utd · Championship
Next match
3 days after7 Nov 2026 · v Wolves · Championship
Middlesbrough
Last match
4 days before31 Oct 2026 · v Charlton · Championship
Next match
3 days after7 Nov 2026 · v Watford · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Wrexham

Since 9 Aug 2025

ScoreWrexhamLeague sides
Scored first17 won, 9 drawn, 3 lost in 29 matches1137 won, 352 drawn, 220 lost in 1709 matches
Conceded first5 won, 7 drawn, 15 lost in 27 matches220 won, 352 drawn, 1137 lost in 1709 matches
Level after 15 minutes17 won, 10 drawn, 13 lost in 40 matches935 won, 750 drawn, 935 lost in 2620 matches
Level after 30 minutes11 won, 10 drawn, 9 lost in 30 matches667 won, 640 drawn, 667 lost in 1974 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreWrexhamLeague sides
All matches19 scored, 25 conceded (59)1061 scored, 1061 conceded (3672)
When leading after 75 minutes5 scored, 12 conceded (24)355 scored, 383 conceded (1283)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 33 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 19(league sides: 1,926 times, within 15 minutes 327, by full time 850)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Middlesbrough

Since 5 Nov 2024

ScoreMiddlesbroughLeague sides
Scored first37 won, 10 drawn, 6 lost in 53 matches1137 won, 352 drawn, 220 lost in 1709 matches
Conceded first6 won, 9 drawn, 19 lost in 34 matches220 won, 352 drawn, 1137 lost in 1709 matches
Level at half-time11 won, 16 drawn, 8 lost in 35 matches466 won, 584 drawn, 466 lost in 1516 matches
1 goal down at half-time4 won, 6 drawn, 11 lost in 21 matches95 won, 167 drawn, 518 lost in 780 matches
Level after 60 minutes6 won, 19 drawn, 13 lost in 38 matches343 won, 590 drawn, 343 lost in 1276 matches
Level after 70 minutes7 won, 19 drawn, 11 lost in 37 matches279 won, 640 drawn, 279 lost in 1198 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes20 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost in 22 matches653 won, 120 drawn, 18 lost in 791 matches
Level after 80 minutes6 won, 23 drawn, 8 lost in 37 matches175 won, 712 drawn, 175 lost in 1062 matches
1 goal up after 15 minutes12 won, 5 drawn, 3 lost in 20 matches304 won, 99 drawn, 74 lost in 477 matches
Level after 15 minutes27 won, 19 drawn, 17 lost in 63 matches935 won, 750 drawn, 935 lost in 2620 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes19 won, 3 drawn, 5 lost in 27 matches445 won, 148 drawn, 108 lost in 701 matches
Level after 30 minutes17 won, 17 drawn, 10 lost in 44 matches667 won, 640 drawn, 667 lost in 1974 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreMiddlesbroughLeague sides
All matches31 scored, 26 conceded (95)1061 scored, 1061 conceded (3672)
When leading after 75 minutes17 scored, 10 conceded (38)355 scored, 383 conceded (1283)
When level after 75 minutes8 scored, 12 conceded (37)323 scored, 323 conceded (1106)
When trailing after 75 minutes6 scored, 4 conceded (20)383 scored, 355 conceded (1283)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 39 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 24(league sides: 1,926 times, within 15 minutes 327, by full time 850)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

WrexhamMiddlesbrough
59Since 9 Aug 2025Matches with xG94Since 5 Nov 2024
69.90xG for143.50
84Goals scored152
77.54xG against100.28
84Goals conceded106

Wrexham

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Wrexham: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
30 Oct 2026at Sheffield Utd0.701.330–1
24 Oct 2026at Blackburn1.741.610–2
17 Oct 2026v Preston1.970.794–1
13 Oct 2026v West Brom0.380.941–2
10 Oct 2026at Derby1.460.601–1
19 Sep 2026v Southampton0.542.082–1
11 Sep 2026at West Ham0.442.960–6
8 Sep 2026v Burnley1.281.501–1
5 Sep 2026at Swansea0.670.740–0
2 Sep 2026at Millwall0.880.233–0

Middlesbrough

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Middlesbrough: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
31 Oct 2026v Charlton1.790.463–0
23 Oct 2026at Bolton4.401.025–1
17 Oct 2026v Cardiff2.780.912–2
13 Oct 2026at Stoke City2.570.653–2
10 Oct 2026v Wolves0.900.681–0
19 Sep 2026at Birmingham2.141.232–2
15 Sep 2026v Millwall1.521.692–2
12 Sep 2026v Norwich2.381.764–3
5 Sep 2026at QPR2.531.031–0
2 Sep 2026at Burnley1.220.641–1

Middlesbrough: 1 without xG left out

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

WrexhamMiddlesbrough
13 of 13Matches with xG13 of 13
14Points in those matches28
17.57xPts26.85
14.83xG for28.44
15.95xG against12.87

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Wrexham and Middlesbrough

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • WrexhamWrexham
    Ruled out
    N. Broadhead (Thigh Injury) · L. Cacace (Calf Injury) · J. Windass (Ankle Injury)
    Doubtful
    S. Revan (Hamstring Injury)
  • MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough
    Ruled out
    A. Jones (Calf Injury)
    Doubtful
    R. Pukstas (Injury)

Published 4 Nov 2026, 18:48 GMT · not changed since

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