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Championship
Bristol City
0–5Finished
Norwich
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 12:30 GMTMatchday 15 · Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol

Bristol City v Norwich match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 7 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

The model rates this match almost even, with Bristol City and Norwich closely matched. Bristol City have won just once in five games, while Norwich have won three of their last five, though both teams have recently struggled. Expected goals stand at 1.39 for Bristol City and 1.36 for Norwich, a gap of 0.03 in Bristol City's favour.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 38%Bristol City win
  • 27%Draw
  • 35%Norwich win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Bristol CityBristol City

Last 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats

  1. lost1–2v Wolves
  2. won3–2at Bolton
  3. drew0–0at Stoke City
  4. lost0–1v Sheffield Utd
  5. lost0–1v Blackburn
NorwichNorwich

Last 5: 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats

  1. won4–0at Derby
  2. won3–2v Watford
  3. won3–1at Charlton
  4. lost0–1v Portsmouth
  5. lost0–1v Southampton

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Bristol City won 28 of 39 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Nov 2024.
  • Norwich won 27 of 45 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Nov 2024.
  • Under 2.5 goals in 7 of Bristol City's last 10 home league games.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 9 of Norwich's last 10 away league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

9 meetings: Bristol City 4, draws 1, Norwich 4

Goals: Bristol City 12, Norwich 12

DateMatchScore
18 Apr 2026Bristol City v Norwich2–4
18 Oct 2025Norwich v Bristol City0–1
14 Mar 2025Bristol City v Norwich2–1
9 Nov 2024Norwich v Bristol City0–2
20 Apr 2024Norwich v Bristol City1–1
3 Dec 2023Bristol City v Norwich1–2
29 Aug 2023Bristol City v NorwichLeague Cup0–1
11 Feb 2023Bristol City v Norwich1–0
14 Sep 2022Norwich v Bristol City3–2

Home and away

Bristol City

Bristol City at home

Last 5: 1 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost

  • LostWolves4 Nov 20261–2
  • LostSheffield Utd17 Oct 20260–1
  • LostBlackburn13 Oct 20260–1
  • WonWatford18 Sep 20261–0
  • LostLincoln15 Sep 20260–1

Bristol City: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
9 scored, 12 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
3 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
3 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Norwich

Norwich away

Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost

  • WonDerby3 Nov 20264–0
  • WonCharlton24 Oct 20263–1
  • LostSwansea10 Oct 20261–2
  • LostManchester CityLeague Cup17 Sep 20260–5
  • LostMiddlesbrough12 Sep 20263–4

Norwich: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
21 scored, 17 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
9 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Bristol City
Last match
3 days before4 Nov 2026 · v Wolves · Championship
Next match
14 days after21 Nov 2026 · v Middlesbrough · Championship
Norwich
Last match
4 days before3 Nov 2026 · v Derby · Championship
Next match
14 days after21 Nov 2026 · v Cardiff · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 9 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Bristol City

ScoreBristol CityLeague sides
Scored first28 won, 8 drawn, 3 lost in 39 matches1138 won, 353 drawn, 221 lost in 1712 matches
Conceded first7 won, 11 drawn, 32 lost in 50 matches221 won, 353 drawn, 1138 lost in 1712 matches
1 goal up at half-time14 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost in 20 matches518 won, 167 drawn, 96 lost in 781 matches
Level at half-time11 won, 16 drawn, 8 lost in 35 matches467 won, 584 drawn, 467 lost in 1518 matches
1 goal down at half-time2 won, 4 drawn, 17 lost in 23 matches96 won, 167 drawn, 518 lost in 781 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes16 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost in 22 matches549 won, 172 drawn, 68 lost in 789 matches
Level after 60 minutes5 won, 16 drawn, 5 lost in 26 matches344 won, 590 drawn, 344 lost in 1278 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes3 won, 3 drawn, 18 lost in 24 matches68 won, 172 drawn, 549 lost in 789 matches
Level after 70 minutes5 won, 14 drawn, 3 lost in 22 matches279 won, 640 drawn, 279 lost in 1198 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes3 won, 5 drawn, 19 lost in 27 matches47 won, 153 drawn, 576 lost in 776 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes16 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches654 won, 121 drawn, 19 lost in 794 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes2 won, 5 drawn, 16 lost in 23 matches19 won, 121 drawn, 654 lost in 794 matches
Level after 15 minutes21 won, 20 drawn, 26 lost in 67 matches937 won, 750 drawn, 937 lost in 2624 matches
Level after 30 minutes16 won, 19 drawn, 17 lost in 52 matches669 won, 640 drawn, 669 lost in 1978 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreBristol CityLeague sides
All matches26 scored, 26 conceded (94)1065 scored, 1065 conceded (3678)
When leading after 75 minutes7 scored, 12 conceded (33)356 scored, 386 conceded (1286)
When level after 75 minutes8 scored, 5 conceded (24)323 scored, 323 conceded (1106)
When trailing after 75 minutes11 scored, 9 conceded (37)386 scored, 356 conceded (1286)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 54 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 23(league sides: 1,929 times, within 15 minutes 327, by full time 852)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Norwich

ScoreNorwichLeague sides
Scored first27 won, 8 drawn, 10 lost in 45 matches1138 won, 353 drawn, 221 lost in 1712 matches
Conceded first8 won, 6 drawn, 30 lost in 44 matches221 won, 353 drawn, 1138 lost in 1712 matches
Level at half-time11 won, 10 drawn, 13 lost in 34 matches467 won, 584 drawn, 467 lost in 1518 matches
Level after 60 minutes9 won, 10 drawn, 9 lost in 28 matches344 won, 590 drawn, 344 lost in 1278 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes4 won, 4 drawn, 16 lost in 24 matches68 won, 172 drawn, 549 lost in 789 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes16 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost in 22 matches576 won, 153 drawn, 47 lost in 776 matches
Level after 70 minutes7 won, 11 drawn, 9 lost in 27 matches279 won, 640 drawn, 279 lost in 1198 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes1 won, 2 drawn, 23 lost in 26 matches19 won, 121 drawn, 654 lost in 794 matches
Level after 15 minutes22 won, 13 drawn, 26 lost in 61 matches937 won, 750 drawn, 937 lost in 2624 matches
Level after 30 minutes19 won, 11 drawn, 15 lost in 45 matches669 won, 640 drawn, 669 lost in 1978 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes4 won, 2 drawn, 14 lost in 20 matches108 won, 149 drawn, 445 lost in 702 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreNorwichLeague sides
All matches30 scored, 23 conceded (92)1065 scored, 1065 conceded (3678)
When leading after 75 minutes13 scored, 9 conceded (34)356 scored, 386 conceded (1286)
When level after 75 minutes7 scored, 9 conceded (22)323 scored, 323 conceded (1106)
When trailing after 75 minutes10 scored, 5 conceded (36)386 scored, 356 conceded (1286)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 53 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 20(league sides: 1,929 times, within 15 minutes 327, by full time 852)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 9 Nov 2024

Bristol CityNorwich
94Matches with xG92
116.08xG for125.93
116Goals scored138
126.04xG against120.82
120Goals conceded128

Bristol City

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Bristol City: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
4 Nov 2026v Wolves1.032.371–2
31 Oct 2026at Bolton3.361.413–2
24 Oct 2026at Stoke City0.790.710–0
17 Oct 2026v Sheffield Utd0.581.230–1
13 Oct 2026v Blackburn1.950.150–1
10 Oct 2026at Charlton1.471.781–1
18 Sep 2026v Watford1.560.521–0
15 Sep 2026v Lincoln1.530.530–1
12 Sep 2026at Southampton2.241.711–4
5 Sep 2026at Burnley1.060.262–1

Norwich

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Norwich: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
3 Nov 2026at Derby2.410.734–0
31 Oct 2026v Watford1.191.003–2
24 Oct 2026at Charlton1.750.873–1
17 Oct 2026v Portsmouth0.371.250–1
14 Oct 2026v Southampton1.262.160–1
10 Oct 2026at Swansea0.682.361–2
20 Sep 2026v Bolton0.691.103–4
12 Sep 2026at Middlesbrough1.762.383–4
9 Sep 2026v Birmingham1.011.632–1
5 Sep 2026at Sheffield Utd3.040.793–1

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

Bristol CityNorwich
14 of 14Matches with xG14 of 14
18Points in those matches18
20.31xPts19.82
19.91xG for21.88
19.33xG against20.77

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Bristol City and Norwich

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

Team news was not available for this match.

Published 7 Nov 2026, 11:27 GMT · not changed since

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