Birmingham v Swansea match analysis
Our selection
PRO members see our selection for this match.
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 7 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Birmingham's model win probability of 48% exceeds Swansea's 25%, reflecting their superior form and attacking threat. The model expects 1.51 goals from the home side and 1.05 from away, a gap of 0.46 in Birmingham's favour. Birmingham come off four wins in their last five, while Swansea have managed just one win in their last five matches.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 48%Birmingham win
- 27%Draw
- 25%Swansea win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
BirminghamLast 5: 4 wins, no draws, 1 defeat
- won3–0v Millwall
- won3–1at Lincoln
- lost0–1at Cardiff
- won3–0v QPR
- won4–0v Preston
SwanseaLast 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats
- lost1–3at Portsmouth
- won4–0v Blackburn
- lost0–5at QPR
- lost0–1v West Ham
- won1–0at Millwall
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Birmingham won 22 of 29 matches in which they scored first, since 8 Aug 2025.
- Swansea won 32 of 43 matches in which they scored first, since 10 Nov 2024.
- Birmingham won 4 of the last 9 meetings.
- Birmingham unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
9 meetings: Birmingham 4, draws 5, Swansea 0
Goals: Birmingham 14, Swansea 10
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2026 | Swansea v BirminghamLeague Cup | 0–1 |
| 17 Jan 2026 | Swansea v Birmingham | 1–1 |
| 20 Sep 2025 | Birmingham v Swansea | 1–0 |
| 13 Jan 2024 | Birmingham v Swansea | 2–2 |
| 5 Aug 2023 | Swansea v Birmingham | 1–1 |
| 4 Feb 2023 | Swansea v Birmingham | 3–4 |
| 8 Nov 2022 | Birmingham v Swansea | 2–2 |
| 19 Mar 2022 | Swansea v Birmingham | 0–0 |
| 23 Oct 2021 | Birmingham v Swansea | 2–1 |
Home and away
BirminghamBirmingham at home
Last 5: 3 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost
- WonMillwall3 Nov 20263–0
- WonQPR17 Oct 20263–0
- WonPreston13 Oct 20264–0
- DrawnMiddlesbrough19 Sep 20262–2
- DrawnWolves6 Sep 20262–2
Birmingham: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 23 scored, 9 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 8 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
SwanseaSwansea away
Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost
- LostPortsmouth3 Nov 20261–3
- LostQPR24 Oct 20260–5
- WonMillwall13 Oct 20261–0
- WonLincoln19 Sep 20262–1
- LostSouthampton8 Sep 20261–3
Swansea: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 14 scored, 15 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 7 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Birmingham- Last match
- 4 days before3 Nov 2026 · v Millwall · Championship
- Next match
- 14 days after21 Nov 2026 · v Stoke City · Championship
Swansea- Last match
- 4 days before3 Nov 2026 · v Portsmouth · Championship
- Next match
- 14 days after21 Nov 2026 · v West Brom · Championship
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Birmingham
Since 8 Aug 2025
| Score | Birmingham | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 22 won, 6 drawn, 1 lost in 29 matches | 1138 won, 353 drawn, 221 lost in 1712 matches |
| Conceded first | 2 won, 10 drawn, 17 lost in 29 matches | 221 won, 353 drawn, 1138 lost in 1712 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 15 won, 13 drawn, 12 lost in 40 matches | 937 won, 750 drawn, 937 lost in 2624 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 11 won, 10 drawn, 9 lost in 30 matches | 669 won, 640 drawn, 669 lost in 1978 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Birmingham | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 14 scored, 9 conceded (60) | 1065 scored, 1065 conceded (3678) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 3 scored, 3 conceded (23) | 356 scored, 386 conceded (1286) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 4 conceded (21) | 386 scored, 356 conceded (1286) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 33 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 16(league sides: 1,929 times, within 15 minutes 327, by full time 852)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Swansea
Since 10 Nov 2024
| Score | Swansea | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 32 won, 5 drawn, 6 lost in 43 matches | 1138 won, 353 drawn, 221 lost in 1712 matches |
| Conceded first | 6 won, 9 drawn, 30 lost in 45 matches | 221 won, 353 drawn, 1138 lost in 1712 matches |
| Level at half-time | 18 won, 11 drawn, 8 lost in 37 matches | 467 won, 584 drawn, 467 lost in 1518 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 3 won, 5 drawn, 14 lost in 22 matches | 96 won, 167 drawn, 518 lost in 781 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 16 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches | 549 won, 172 drawn, 68 lost in 789 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 10 won, 7 drawn, 10 lost in 27 matches | 344 won, 590 drawn, 344 lost in 1278 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 1 won, 6 drawn, 14 lost in 21 matches | 68 won, 172 drawn, 549 lost in 789 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 19 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 24 matches | 576 won, 153 drawn, 47 lost in 776 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 7 won, 10 drawn, 9 lost in 26 matches | 279 won, 640 drawn, 279 lost in 1198 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 22 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches | 654 won, 121 drawn, 19 lost in 794 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 4 won, 12 drawn, 5 lost in 21 matches | 175 won, 712 drawn, 175 lost in 1062 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 0 won, 4 drawn, 18 lost in 22 matches | 19 won, 121 drawn, 654 lost in 794 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 25 won, 15 drawn, 25 lost in 65 matches | 937 won, 750 drawn, 937 lost in 2624 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 18 won, 11 drawn, 19 lost in 48 matches | 669 won, 640 drawn, 669 lost in 1978 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Swansea | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 25 scored, 29 conceded (92) | 1065 scored, 1065 conceded (3678) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 5 conceded (35) | 356 scored, 386 conceded (1286) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 10 conceded (24) | 323 scored, 323 conceded (1106) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 14 conceded (33) | 386 scored, 356 conceded (1286) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 50 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 23(league sides: 1,929 times, within 15 minutes 327, by full time 852)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Birmingham | Swansea | |
|---|---|---|
| 60Since 8 Aug 2025 | Matches with xG | 92Since 10 Nov 2024 |
| 86.60 | xG for | 113.99 |
| 83 | Goals scored | 118 |
| 67.49 | xG against | 115.73 |
| 69 | Goals conceded | 122 |
Birmingham
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov 2026 | v Millwall | 1.38 | 1.44 | 3–0 |
| 31 Oct 2026 | at Lincoln | 2.09 | 1.63 | 3–1 |
| 24 Oct 2026 | at Cardiff | 0.91 | 2.40 | 0–1 |
| 17 Oct 2026 | v QPR | 1.34 | 1.17 | 3–0 |
| 13 Oct 2026 | v Preston | 2.24 | 0.49 | 4–0 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | at West Brom | 2.55 | 1.05 | 1–0 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Middlesbrough | 1.23 | 2.14 | 2–2 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Derby | 3.17 | 1.11 | 2–1 |
| 9 Sep 2026 | at Norwich | 1.63 | 1.01 | 1–2 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | v Wolves | 1.39 | 2.47 | 2–2 |
Swansea
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov 2026 | at Portsmouth | 2.31 | 1.44 | 1–3 |
| 31 Oct 2026 | v Blackburn | 2.82 | 0.54 | 4–0 |
| 24 Oct 2026 | at QPR | 0.27 | 3.30 | 0–5 |
| 17 Oct 2026 | v West Ham | 1.08 | 1.21 | 0–1 |
| 13 Oct 2026 | at Millwall | 1.82 | 1.05 | 1–0 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | v Norwich | 2.36 | 0.68 | 2–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Lincoln | 0.92 | 2.11 | 2–1 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Burnley | 2.63 | 1.73 | 3–1 |
| 8 Sep 2026 | at Southampton | 1.22 | 1.44 | 1–3 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Wrexham | 0.74 | 0.67 | 0–0 |
This league season
Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| Birmingham | Swansea | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 of 14 | Matches with xG | 14 of 14 |
| 26 | Points in those matches | 26 |
| 22.42 | xPts | 22.35 |
| 23.85 | xG for | 23.07 |
| 19.07 | xG against | 17.86 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Birmingham and Swansea
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Team news was not available for this match.
Published 7 Nov 2026, 13:58 GMT · not changed since
All fixtures