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Championship
Cardiff
3–3Finished
West Ham
Wed 4 Nov 2026 · 19:45 GMTMatchday 14 · Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff

Cardiff v West Ham match analysis

Our selection

PRO members see our selection for this match.

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Wed 4 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Cardiff host West Ham in the Championship with the model giving West Ham a 52% chance of winning. Cardiff have won just once in their last five matches, while West Ham have picked up form with two draws and a win recently. The model expects West Ham to create more chances, with expected goals of 1.9 compared to Cardiff's 1.24.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 24%Cardiff win
  • 24%Draw
  • 52%West Ham win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

CardiffCardiff

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

  1. lost0–3at Wolves
  2. won1–0v Birmingham
  3. drew2–2at Middlesbrough
  4. won5–1v Watford
  5. lost1–2at Blackburn
West HamWest Ham

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

  1. lost1–3v West Brom
  2. lost2–3v Southampton
  3. won1–0at Swansea
  4. won6–0at Lincoln
  5. drew1–1v QPR

Head-to-head

Head-to-head data was not available for this match.

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Championship, since 4 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 328 of 420.
  • West Ham won 22 of 35 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Nov 2024.
  • Cardiff unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
  • West Ham unbeaten in their last 5 away games.

Home and away

Cardiff

Cardiff at home

Last 5: 3 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonBirmingham24 Oct 20261–0
  • WonWatford13 Oct 20265–1
  • WonCharlton19 Sep 20263–1
  • DrawnStoke City8 Sep 20261–1
  • DrawnSheffield Utd29 Aug 20262–2

Cardiff: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
21 scored, 7 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10
West Ham

West Ham away

Last 5: 3 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonSwansea17 Oct 20261–0
  • WonLincoln14 Oct 20266–0
  • DrawnMillwall19 Sep 20262–2
  • WonBolton8 Sep 20263–2
  • DrawnWatford29 Aug 20261–1

West Ham: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
16 scored, 15 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Cardiff
Last match
4 days before31 Oct 2026 · v Wolves · Championship
Next match
3 days after7 Nov 2026 · v Burnley · Championship
West Ham
Last match
4 days before31 Oct 2026 · v West Brom · Championship
Next match
3 days after7 Nov 2026 · v Blackburn · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 9 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

West Ham

ScoreWest HamLeague sides
Scored first22 won, 8 drawn, 5 lost in 35 matches1137 won, 352 drawn, 220 lost in 1709 matches
Conceded first2 won, 10 drawn, 29 lost in 41 matches220 won, 352 drawn, 1137 lost in 1709 matches
Level at half-time8 won, 13 drawn, 8 lost in 29 matches466 won, 584 drawn, 466 lost in 1516 matches
Level after 60 minutes5 won, 10 drawn, 8 lost in 23 matches343 won, 590 drawn, 343 lost in 1276 matches
Level after 70 minutes5 won, 13 drawn, 7 lost in 25 matches279 won, 640 drawn, 279 lost in 1198 matches
Level after 80 minutes2 won, 14 drawn, 5 lost in 21 matches175 won, 712 drawn, 175 lost in 1062 matches
Level after 15 minutes17 won, 16 drawn, 17 lost in 50 matches935 won, 750 drawn, 935 lost in 2620 matches
Level after 30 minutes14 won, 14 drawn, 12 lost in 40 matches667 won, 640 drawn, 667 lost in 1974 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes2 won, 4 drawn, 15 lost in 21 matches108 won, 148 drawn, 445 lost in 701 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreWest HamLeague sides
All matches28 scored, 28 conceded (79)1061 scored, 1061 conceded (3672)
When leading after 75 minutes12 scored, 10 conceded (27)355 scored, 383 conceded (1283)
When level after 75 minutes9 scored, 9 conceded (22)323 scored, 323 conceded (1106)
When trailing after 75 minutes7 scored, 9 conceded (30)383 scored, 355 conceded (1283)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 44 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 17(league sides: 1,926 times, within 15 minutes 327, by full time 850)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

CardiffWest Ham
46Since 6 Nov 2024Matches with xG79Since 9 Nov 2024
57.75xG for105.86
54Goals scored112
66.23xG against119.43
74Goals conceded126

Cardiff

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Cardiff: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
31 Oct 2026at Wolves0.961.660–3
24 Oct 2026v Birmingham2.400.911–0
17 Oct 2026at Middlesbrough0.912.782–2
13 Oct 2026v Watford3.671.465–1
10 Oct 2026at Blackburn1.052.421–2
19 Sep 2026v Charlton2.601.263–1
12 Sep 2026at Bolton1.790.480–1
8 Sep 2026v Stoke City2.920.751–1
5 Sep 2026at Portsmouth1.372.070–2
2 Sep 2026at QPR0.602.091–2

West Ham

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
West Ham: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
31 Oct 2026v West Brom0.952.081–3
24 Oct 2026v Southampton1.601.612–3
17 Oct 2026at Swansea1.211.081–0
14 Oct 2026at Lincoln3.230.396–0
9 Oct 2026v QPR1.441.271–1
19 Sep 2026at Millwall1.872.682–2
11 Sep 2026v Wrexham2.960.446–0
8 Sep 2026at Bolton2.221.563–2
5 Sep 2026v Derby3.790.113–0
1 Sep 2026v Wolves2.050.944–2

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

CardiffWest Ham
13 of 13Matches with xG13 of 13
14Points in those matches22
19.68xPts22.61
23.39xG for26.38
20.21xG against16.71

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Cardiff and West Ham

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • CardiffCardiff
    Ruled out
    C. Chambers (Knee Injury) · D. Lawlor (Hamstring Injury)
    Doubtful
    K. Bielik (Inactive) · C. Robinson (Inactive)
  • West HamWest Ham
    Ruled out
    K. Mavropanos (Knee Injury)
    Doubtful
    K. Lamadrid (Injury)

Published 4 Nov 2026, 18:42 GMT · not changed since

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