LEDGER
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Championship
Cardiff
15:00
Burnley
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · GMTMatchday 15 · Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff

Cardiff v Burnley · analysis and preview

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Most likely: Cardiff win

Cardiff host Burnley in a closely matched Championship encounter. The model gives Cardiff a 39% chance of victory, Burnley 34% and a draw 27%, with expected goals of 1.45 for Cardiff and 1.36 for Burnley—a gap of 0.09 in Cardiff's favour. Cardiff's recent form is mixed, while Burnley have won just once in their last five matches.

How the match could end · our estimate

  • 39%Cardiff win
  • 27%Draw
  • 34%Burnley win

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Form · newest first

CardiffCardiff

Last 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat

  1. drew3–3v West Ham
  2. lost0–3at Wolves
  3. won1–0v Birmingham
  4. drew2–2at Middlesbrough
  5. won5–1v Watford
BurnleyBurnley

Last 5: no wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats

  1. drew1–1at QPR
  2. drew0–0v Portsmouth
  3. lost1–4at Lincoln
  4. lost1–2v Wolves
  5. drew2–2v Charlton

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Championship, since 4 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 329 of 423.
  • Burnley won 22 of 35 matches in which they scored first, since 7 Nov 2024.
  • Burnley won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
  • Cardiff unbeaten in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

5 meetings: Cardiff 1, draws 1, Burnley 3

Goals: Cardiff 4, Burnley 12

DateMatchScore
23 Sep 2025Burnley v CardiffLeague Cup1–2
4 Mar 2025Cardiff v Burnley1–2
17 Aug 2024Burnley v Cardiff5–0
8 May 2023Burnley v Cardiff3–0
1 Oct 2022Cardiff v Burnley1–1

Home and away

Cardiff

Cardiff at home

Last 5: 3 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost

  • DrawnWest Ham4 Nov 20263–3
  • WonBirmingham24 Oct 20261–0
  • WonWatford13 Oct 20265–1
  • WonCharlton19 Sep 20263–1
  • DrawnStoke City8 Sep 20261–1

Cardiff: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
24 scored, 10 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Burnley

Burnley away

Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost

  • DrawnQPR3 Nov 20261–1
  • LostLincoln24 Oct 20261–4
  • WonWatford10 Oct 20264–0
  • LostSwansea12 Sep 20261–3
  • DrawnWrexham8 Sep 20261–1

Burnley: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
12 scored, 24 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Cardiff
Last match
3 days before4 Nov 2026 · v West Ham · Championship
Next match
Not known
Burnley
Last match
4 days before3 Nov 2026 · v QPR · Championship
Next match
Not known

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 7 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Burnley

ScoreBurnleyLeague sides
Scored first22 won, 6 drawn, 7 lost in 35 matches1138 won, 353 drawn, 221 lost in 1712 matches
Conceded first5 won, 10 drawn, 23 lost in 38 matches221 won, 353 drawn, 1138 lost in 1712 matches
Level at half-time9 won, 18 drawn, 9 lost in 36 matches467 won, 584 drawn, 467 lost in 1518 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes15 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost in 21 matches549 won, 172 drawn, 68 lost in 789 matches
Level after 60 minutes3 won, 21 drawn, 6 lost in 30 matches344 won, 590 drawn, 344 lost in 1278 matches
Level after 70 minutes3 won, 23 drawn, 7 lost in 33 matches279 won, 640 drawn, 279 lost in 1198 matches
Level after 80 minutes2 won, 22 drawn, 4 lost in 28 matches175 won, 712 drawn, 175 lost in 1062 matches
Level after 15 minutes16 won, 21 drawn, 17 lost in 54 matches937 won, 750 drawn, 937 lost in 2624 matches
Level after 30 minutes10 won, 20 drawn, 15 lost in 45 matches669 won, 640 drawn, 669 lost in 1978 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreBurnleyLeague sides
All matches21 scored, 23 conceded (85)1065 scored, 1065 conceded (3678)
When leading after 75 minutes8 scored, 6 conceded (27)356 scored, 386 conceded (1286)
When level after 75 minutes6 scored, 9 conceded (31)323 scored, 323 conceded (1106)
When trailing after 75 minutes7 scored, 8 conceded (27)386 scored, 356 conceded (1286)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 46 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 22(league sides: 1,929 times, within 15 minutes 327, by full time 852)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

CardiffBurnley
46Since 9 Nov 2024Matches with xG85Since 7 Nov 2024
58.35xG for96.46
57Goals scored108
68.05xG against124.16
76Goals conceded111

Cardiff

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Cardiff: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
4 Nov 2026v West Ham1.192.813–3
31 Oct 2026at Wolves0.961.660–3
24 Oct 2026v Birmingham2.400.911–0
17 Oct 2026at Middlesbrough0.912.782–2
13 Oct 2026v Watford3.671.465–1
10 Oct 2026at Blackburn1.052.421–2
19 Sep 2026v Charlton2.601.263–1
12 Sep 2026at Bolton1.790.480–1
8 Sep 2026v Stoke City2.920.751–1
5 Sep 2026at Portsmouth1.372.070–2

Burnley

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Burnley: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
3 Nov 2026at QPR0.171.801–1
31 Oct 2026v Portsmouth1.970.310–0
24 Oct 2026at Lincoln2.371.941–4
16 Oct 2026v Wolves1.072.021–2
13 Oct 2026v Charlton1.082.132–2
10 Oct 2026at Watford1.940.644–0
19 Sep 2026v Derby0.451.751–1
12 Sep 2026at Swansea1.732.631–3
8 Sep 2026at Wrexham1.501.281–1
5 Sep 2026v Bristol City0.261.061–2

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

CardiffBurnley
14 of 14Matches with xG14 of 14
15Points in those matches10
20.24xPts16.58
24.58xG for18.07
23.02xG against22.04

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Cardiff and Burnley

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

Team news not available yet.

Updated 7 Nov 2026, 00:08 GMT

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