Cardiff v Burnley match analysis
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This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 7 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Cardiff host Burnley in a closely matched Championship encounter. The model gives Cardiff a 39% chance of victory, Burnley 34% and a draw 27%, with expected goals of 1.45 for Cardiff and 1.36 for Burnley—a gap of 0.09 in Cardiff's favour. Cardiff's recent form is mixed, while Burnley have won just once in their last five matches.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 39%Cardiff win
- 27%Draw
- 34%Burnley win
PRO analysis
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Form · newest first
CardiffLast 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat
- drew3–3v West Ham
- lost0–3at Wolves
- won1–0v Birmingham
- drew2–2at Middlesbrough
- won5–1v Watford
BurnleyLast 5: no wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats
- drew1–1at QPR
- drew0–0v Portsmouth
- lost1–4at Lincoln
- lost1–2v Wolves
- drew2–2v Charlton
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Championship, since 4 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 329 of 423.
- Burnley won 22 of 35 matches in which they scored first, since 7 Nov 2024.
- Burnley won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
- Cardiff unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
5 meetings: Cardiff 1, draws 1, Burnley 3
Goals: Cardiff 4, Burnley 12
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 23 Sep 2025 | Burnley v CardiffLeague Cup | 1–2 |
| 4 Mar 2025 | Cardiff v Burnley | 1–2 |
| 17 Aug 2024 | Burnley v Cardiff | 5–0 |
| 8 May 2023 | Burnley v Cardiff | 3–0 |
| 1 Oct 2022 | Cardiff v Burnley | 1–1 |
Home and away
CardiffCardiff at home
Last 5: 3 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost
- DrawnWest Ham4 Nov 20263–3
- WonBirmingham24 Oct 20261–0
- WonWatford13 Oct 20265–1
- WonCharlton19 Sep 20263–1
- DrawnStoke City8 Sep 20261–1
Cardiff: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 24 scored, 10 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 7 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
BurnleyBurnley away
Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost
- DrawnQPR3 Nov 20261–1
- LostLincoln24 Oct 20261–4
- WonWatford10 Oct 20264–0
- LostSwansea12 Sep 20261–3
- DrawnWrexham8 Sep 20261–1
Burnley: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 12 scored, 24 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 8 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 7 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Cardiff- Last match
- 3 days before4 Nov 2026 · v West Ham · Championship
- Next match
- 14 days after21 Nov 2026 · v Norwich · Championship
Burnley- Last match
- 4 days before3 Nov 2026 · v QPR · Championship
- Next match
- Not known
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 7 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Burnley
| Score | Burnley | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 22 won, 6 drawn, 7 lost in 35 matches | 1138 won, 353 drawn, 221 lost in 1712 matches |
| Conceded first | 5 won, 10 drawn, 23 lost in 38 matches | 221 won, 353 drawn, 1138 lost in 1712 matches |
| Level at half-time | 9 won, 18 drawn, 9 lost in 36 matches | 467 won, 584 drawn, 467 lost in 1518 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 15 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost in 21 matches | 549 won, 172 drawn, 68 lost in 789 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 3 won, 21 drawn, 6 lost in 30 matches | 344 won, 590 drawn, 344 lost in 1278 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 3 won, 23 drawn, 7 lost in 33 matches | 279 won, 640 drawn, 279 lost in 1198 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 2 won, 22 drawn, 4 lost in 28 matches | 175 won, 712 drawn, 175 lost in 1062 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 16 won, 21 drawn, 17 lost in 54 matches | 937 won, 750 drawn, 937 lost in 2624 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 10 won, 20 drawn, 15 lost in 45 matches | 669 won, 640 drawn, 669 lost in 1978 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Burnley | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 21 scored, 23 conceded (85) | 1065 scored, 1065 conceded (3678) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 8 scored, 6 conceded (27) | 356 scored, 386 conceded (1286) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 9 conceded (31) | 323 scored, 323 conceded (1106) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 8 conceded (27) | 386 scored, 356 conceded (1286) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 46 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 22(league sides: 1,929 times, within 15 minutes 327, by full time 852)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Cardiff | Burnley | |
|---|---|---|
| 46Since 9 Nov 2024 | Matches with xG | 85Since 7 Nov 2024 |
| 58.35 | xG for | 96.46 |
| 57 | Goals scored | 108 |
| 68.05 | xG against | 124.16 |
| 76 | Goals conceded | 111 |
Cardiff
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov 2026 | v West Ham | 1.19 | 2.81 | 3–3 |
| 31 Oct 2026 | at Wolves | 0.96 | 1.66 | 0–3 |
| 24 Oct 2026 | v Birmingham | 2.40 | 0.91 | 1–0 |
| 17 Oct 2026 | at Middlesbrough | 0.91 | 2.78 | 2–2 |
| 13 Oct 2026 | v Watford | 3.67 | 1.46 | 5–1 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Blackburn | 1.05 | 2.42 | 1–2 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Charlton | 2.60 | 1.26 | 3–1 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Bolton | 1.79 | 0.48 | 0–1 |
| 8 Sep 2026 | v Stoke City | 2.92 | 0.75 | 1–1 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at Portsmouth | 1.37 | 2.07 | 0–2 |
Burnley
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov 2026 | at QPR | 0.17 | 1.80 | 1–1 |
| 31 Oct 2026 | v Portsmouth | 1.97 | 0.31 | 0–0 |
| 24 Oct 2026 | at Lincoln | 2.37 | 1.94 | 1–4 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | v Wolves | 1.07 | 2.02 | 1–2 |
| 13 Oct 2026 | v Charlton | 1.08 | 2.13 | 2–2 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Watford | 1.94 | 0.64 | 4–0 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Derby | 0.45 | 1.75 | 1–1 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Swansea | 1.73 | 2.63 | 1–3 |
| 8 Sep 2026 | at Wrexham | 1.50 | 1.28 | 1–1 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Bristol City | 0.26 | 1.06 | 1–2 |
This league season
Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| Cardiff | Burnley | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 of 14 | Matches with xG | 14 of 14 |
| 15 | Points in those matches | 10 |
| 20.24 | xPts | 16.58 |
| 24.58 | xG for | 18.07 |
| 23.02 | xG against | 22.04 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Cardiff and Burnley
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Team news was not available for this match.
Published 7 Nov 2026, 13:58 GMT · not changed since
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