QPR v Lincoln match analysis
Our selection
PRO members see our selection for this match.
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 7 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
QPR, the home side, has a 44% chance of winning according to the model, with draws at 27% and Lincoln's chances at 29%. Expected goals stand at 2.74, with a 0.3-goal advantage to QPR. QPR have mixed recent form with one win and one draw in their last five, while Lincoln have managed just one win in the same span.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 44%QPR win
- 27%Draw
- 29%Lincoln win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
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Form · newest first
QPRLast 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats
- drew1–1v Burnley
- lost1–4at Southampton
- won5–0v Swansea
- lost0–3at Birmingham
- won4–1v Derby
LincolnLast 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats
- lost0–1at Watford
- lost1–3v Birmingham
- won4–1v Burnley
- drew2–2at Millwall
- lost0–6v West Ham
Head-to-head
Head-to-head data was not available for this match.
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- QPR won 26 of 34 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Nov 2024.
- Championship, since 4 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 329 of 423.
- Not both teams scored in 7 of Lincoln's last 10 away league games.
Home and away
QPRQPR at home
Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost
- DrawnBurnley3 Nov 20261–1
- WonSwansea24 Oct 20265–0
- WonDerby14 Oct 20264–1
- DrawnPreston19 Sep 20262–2
- LostMiddlesbrough5 Sep 20260–1
QPR: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 17 scored, 11 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
LincolnLincoln away
Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost
- LostWatford3 Nov 20260–1
- DrawnMillwall17 Oct 20262–2
- LostSheffield Utd10 Oct 20260–3
- WonBristol City15 Sep 20261–0
- WonPreston12 Sep 20261–0
Lincoln: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 12 scored, 10 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 3 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 4 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
QPR- Last match
- 4 days before3 Nov 2026 · v Burnley · Championship
- Next match
- 14 days after21 Nov 2026 · v Millwall · Championship
Lincoln- Last match
- 4 days before3 Nov 2026 · v Watford · Championship
- Next match
- 14 days after21 Nov 2026 · v Wrexham · Championship
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 9 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
QPR
| Score | QPR | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 26 won, 6 drawn, 2 lost in 34 matches | 1138 won, 353 drawn, 221 lost in 1712 matches |
| Conceded first | 8 won, 7 drawn, 33 lost in 48 matches | 221 won, 353 drawn, 1138 lost in 1712 matches |
| Level at half-time | 11 won, 14 drawn, 8 lost in 33 matches | 467 won, 584 drawn, 467 lost in 1518 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 3 won, 4 drawn, 15 lost in 22 matches | 96 won, 167 drawn, 518 lost in 781 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 11 won, 15 drawn, 3 lost in 29 matches | 344 won, 590 drawn, 344 lost in 1278 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 3 won, 5 drawn, 12 lost in 20 matches | 68 won, 172 drawn, 549 lost in 789 matches |
| 2+ goals down after 60 minutes | 0 won, 1 drawn, 19 lost in 20 matches | 4 won, 13 drawn, 394 lost in 411 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 9 won, 20 drawn, 3 lost in 32 matches | 279 won, 640 drawn, 279 lost in 1198 matches |
| 2+ goals down after 70 minutes | 0 won, 0 drawn, 21 lost in 21 matches | 1 won, 7 drawn, 456 lost in 464 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 5 won, 20 drawn, 2 lost in 27 matches | 175 won, 712 drawn, 175 lost in 1062 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 23 won, 22 drawn, 19 lost in 64 matches | 937 won, 750 drawn, 937 lost in 2624 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 14 won, 18 drawn, 10 lost in 42 matches | 669 won, 640 drawn, 669 lost in 1978 matches |
| 1 goal down after 30 minutes | 4 won, 2 drawn, 18 lost in 24 matches | 108 won, 149 drawn, 445 lost in 702 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | QPR | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 28 scored, 21 conceded (92) | 1065 scored, 1065 conceded (3678) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 9 conceded (29) | 356 scored, 386 conceded (1286) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 3 conceded (28) | 323 scored, 323 conceded (1106) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 9 conceded (35) | 386 scored, 356 conceded (1286) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 53 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 21(league sides: 1,929 times, within 15 minutes 327, by full time 852)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 9 Nov 2024
| QPR | Lincoln | |
|---|---|---|
| 92 | Matches with xG | — |
| 110.37 | xG for | — |
| 124 | Goals scored | — |
| 109.05 | xG against | — |
| 130 | Goals conceded | — |
QPR
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov 2026 | v Burnley | 1.80 | 0.17 | 1–1 |
| 31 Oct 2026 | at Southampton | 0.78 | 1.25 | 1–4 |
| 24 Oct 2026 | v Swansea | 3.30 | 0.27 | 5–0 |
| 17 Oct 2026 | at Birmingham | 1.17 | 1.34 | 0–3 |
| 14 Oct 2026 | v Derby | 2.05 | 1.02 | 4–1 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | at West Ham | 1.27 | 1.44 | 1–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Preston | 2.54 | 1.50 | 2–2 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at West Brom | 0.62 | 1.22 | 1–1 |
| 9 Sep 2026 | at Charlton | 1.10 | 0.48 | 0–0 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Middlesbrough | 1.03 | 2.53 | 0–1 |
This league season
Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| QPR | Lincoln | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 of 14 | Matches with xG | 14 of 14 |
| 21 | Points in those matches | 15 |
| 24.09 | xPts | 18.66 |
| 22.98 | xG for | 18.17 |
| 15.10 | xG against | 20.32 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: QPR and Lincoln
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Team news was not available for this match.
Published 7 Nov 2026, 13:58 GMT · not changed since
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