LEDGER
Sign inGo PRO
Championship
Portsmouth
3–1Finished
Swansea
Tue 3 Nov 2026 · 19:45 GMTMatchday 14 · Fratton Park, Portsmouth

Portsmouth v Swansea match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Tue 3 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Portsmouth host Swansea in a closely matched Championship fixture. The model gives Portsmouth a 37% chance of winning, with a 29% draw probability and Swansea at 34%, giving an expected 2.49 goals overall with a gap of 0.03 in Portsmouth's favour. Portsmouth are dealing with six absences, while Swansea are without three players including Ronald and Yeo.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 37%Portsmouth win
  • 29%Draw
  • 34%Swansea win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

PortsmouthPortsmouth

Last 5: 3 wins, 2 draws, no defeats

  1. drew0–0at Burnley
  2. won2–1v Millwall
  3. drew1–1at Wolves
  4. won1–0at Norwich
  5. won3–2v Sheffield Utd
SwanseaSwansea

Last 5: 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats

  1. won4–0v Blackburn
  2. lost0–5at QPR
  3. lost0–1v West Ham
  4. won1–0at Millwall
  5. won2–1v Norwich

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Portsmouth won 28 of 40 matches in which they scored first, since 5 Nov 2024.
  • Swansea won 33 of 44 matches in which they scored first, since 5 Nov 2024.
  • Swansea won 2 of the last 4 meetings.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Swansea's last 10 away league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

4 meetings: Portsmouth 1, draws 1, Swansea 2

Goals: Portsmouth 7, Swansea 5

DateMatchScore
10 Mar 2026Portsmouth v Swansea1–2
9 Dec 2025Swansea v Portsmouth1–0
1 Jan 2025Portsmouth v Swansea4–0
30 Nov 2024Swansea v Portsmouth2–2

Home and away

Portsmouth

Portsmouth at home

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonMillwall24 Oct 20262–1
  • WonSheffield Utd14 Oct 20263–2
  • DrawnBlackburn19 Sep 20262–2
  • WonCardiff5 Sep 20262–0
  • LostDerby1 Sep 20260–2

Portsmouth: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
16 scored, 13 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Swansea

Swansea away

Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostQPR24 Oct 20260–5
  • WonMillwall13 Oct 20261–0
  • WonLincoln19 Sep 20262–1
  • LostSouthampton8 Sep 20261–3
  • WonDerby29 Aug 20263–0

Swansea: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
16 scored, 15 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Portsmouth
Last match
3 days before31 Oct 2026 · v Burnley · Championship
Next match
4 days after7 Nov 2026 · v Stoke City · Championship
Swansea
Last match
3 days before31 Oct 2026 · v Blackburn · Championship
Next match
4 days after7 Nov 2026 · v Birmingham · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 5 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Portsmouth

ScorePortsmouthLeague sides
Scored first28 won, 9 drawn, 3 lost in 40 matches1131 won, 350 drawn, 219 lost in 1700 matches
Conceded first4 won, 8 drawn, 34 lost in 46 matches219 won, 350 drawn, 1131 lost in 1700 matches
Level at half-time10 won, 15 drawn, 11 lost in 36 matches465 won, 584 drawn, 465 lost in 1514 matches
1 goal down at half-time2 won, 4 drawn, 15 lost in 21 matches95 won, 165 drawn, 515 lost in 775 matches
Level after 60 minutes8 won, 18 drawn, 11 lost in 37 matches343 won, 588 drawn, 343 lost in 1274 matches
Level after 70 minutes5 won, 17 drawn, 9 lost in 31 matches279 won, 636 drawn, 279 lost in 1194 matches
Level after 80 minutes4 won, 20 drawn, 5 lost in 29 matches175 won, 708 drawn, 175 lost in 1058 matches
Level after 15 minutes27 won, 18 drawn, 23 lost in 68 matches931 won, 746 drawn, 931 lost in 2608 matches
Level after 30 minutes20 won, 15 drawn, 16 lost in 51 matches663 won, 638 drawn, 663 lost in 1964 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes1 won, 4 drawn, 15 lost in 20 matches108 won, 147 drawn, 444 lost in 699 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScorePortsmouthLeague sides
All matches26 scored, 21 conceded (92)1056 scored, 1056 conceded (3654)
When leading after 75 minutes6 scored, 3 conceded (28)353 scored, 380 conceded (1276)
When level after 75 minutes8 scored, 10 conceded (29)323 scored, 323 conceded (1102)
When trailing after 75 minutes12 scored, 8 conceded (35)380 scored, 353 conceded (1276)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 47 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 18(league sides: 1,916 times, within 15 minutes 327, by full time 846)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Swansea

ScoreSwanseaLeague sides
Scored first33 won, 5 drawn, 6 lost in 44 matches1131 won, 350 drawn, 219 lost in 1700 matches
Conceded first6 won, 9 drawn, 29 lost in 44 matches219 won, 350 drawn, 1131 lost in 1700 matches
Level at half-time18 won, 11 drawn, 8 lost in 37 matches465 won, 584 drawn, 465 lost in 1514 matches
1 goal down at half-time3 won, 5 drawn, 13 lost in 21 matches95 won, 165 drawn, 515 lost in 775 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes17 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost in 23 matches545 won, 171 drawn, 67 lost in 783 matches
Level after 60 minutes10 won, 7 drawn, 10 lost in 27 matches343 won, 588 drawn, 343 lost in 1274 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes1 won, 6 drawn, 13 lost in 20 matches67 won, 171 drawn, 545 lost in 783 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes20 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 25 matches572 won, 152 drawn, 46 lost in 770 matches
Level after 70 minutes7 won, 10 drawn, 9 lost in 26 matches279 won, 636 drawn, 279 lost in 1194 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes23 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost in 25 matches649 won, 120 drawn, 18 lost in 787 matches
Level after 80 minutes4 won, 12 drawn, 5 lost in 21 matches175 won, 708 drawn, 175 lost in 1058 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes0 won, 4 drawn, 17 lost in 21 matches18 won, 120 drawn, 649 lost in 787 matches
Level after 15 minutes26 won, 15 drawn, 24 lost in 65 matches931 won, 746 drawn, 931 lost in 2608 matches
Level after 30 minutes19 won, 11 drawn, 18 lost in 48 matches663 won, 638 drawn, 663 lost in 1964 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreSwanseaLeague sides
All matches24 scored, 27 conceded (92)1056 scored, 1056 conceded (3654)
When leading after 75 minutes9 scored, 5 conceded (36)353 scored, 380 conceded (1276)
When level after 75 minutes7 scored, 10 conceded (24)323 scored, 323 conceded (1102)
When trailing after 75 minutes8 scored, 12 conceded (32)380 scored, 353 conceded (1276)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 49 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 22(league sides: 1,916 times, within 15 minutes 327, by full time 846)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 5 Nov 2024

PortsmouthSwansea
92Matches with xG92
109.67xG for113.68
110Goals scored118
115.97xG against114.64
124Goals conceded119

Portsmouth

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Portsmouth: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
31 Oct 2026at Burnley0.311.970–0
24 Oct 2026v Millwall0.910.732–1
20 Oct 2026at Wolves0.780.951–1
17 Oct 2026at Norwich1.250.371–0
14 Oct 2026v Sheffield Utd2.011.803–2
11 Oct 2026at Southampton1.181.280–1
19 Sep 2026v Blackburn1.600.592–2
12 Sep 2026at Charlton0.400.820–0
5 Sep 2026v Cardiff2.071.372–0
1 Sep 2026v Derby0.840.550–2

Swansea

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Swansea: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
31 Oct 2026v Blackburn2.820.544–0
24 Oct 2026at QPR0.273.300–5
17 Oct 2026v West Ham1.081.210–1
13 Oct 2026at Millwall1.821.051–0
10 Oct 2026v Norwich2.360.682–1
19 Sep 2026at Lincoln0.922.112–1
12 Sep 2026v Burnley2.631.733–1
8 Sep 2026at Southampton1.221.441–3
5 Sep 2026v Wrexham0.740.670–0
1 Sep 2026v Watford2.710.882–0

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

PortsmouthSwansea
13 of 13Matches with xG13 of 13
19Points in those matches26
18.43xPts20.44
16.10xG for20.76
15.43xG against16.42

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Portsmouth and Swansea

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • PortsmouthPortsmouth
    Ruled out
    K. Anderson (Overload) · B. Arthur (Back Injury) · C. Bishop (Knee Injury) · L. Brooke-Smith (Ankle Injury) · C. Ogilvie (Knee Injury) · J. Swift (Knee Injury)
  • SwanseaSwansea
    Ruled out
    C. Burgess (Achilles Tendon Injury) · Ronald (Hamstring Injury) · M. K. Yeo (Injury)

Published 3 Nov 2026, 18:42 GMT · not changed since

All fixtures