LEDGER
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Championship
QPR
1–1Finished
Burnley
Tue 3 Nov 2026 · 19:45 GMTMatchday 14 · Loftus Road, London

QPR v Burnley match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Tue 3 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 39%QPR win
  • 27%Draw
  • 34%Burnley win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

QPRQPR

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

  1. lost1–4at Southampton
  2. won5–0v Swansea
  3. lost0–3at Birmingham
  4. won4–1v Derby
  5. drew1–1at West Ham
BurnleyBurnley

Last 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats

  1. drew0–0v Portsmouth
  2. lost1–4at Lincoln
  3. lost1–2v Wolves
  4. drew2–2v Charlton
  5. won4–0at Watford

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • QPR won 26 of 34 matches in which they scored first, since 5 Nov 2024.
  • Burnley won 22 of 34 matches in which they scored first, since 7 Nov 2024.
  • Burnley won 2 of the last 4 meetings.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of QPR's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

4 meetings: QPR 1, draws 1, Burnley 2

Goals: QPR 2, Burnley 9

DateMatchScore
26 Apr 2025QPR v Burnley0–5
26 Oct 2024Burnley v QPR0–0
22 Apr 2023Burnley v QPR1–2
11 Dec 2022QPR v Burnley0–3

Home and away

QPR

QPR at home

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonSwansea24 Oct 20265–0
  • WonDerby14 Oct 20264–1
  • DrawnPreston19 Sep 20262–2
  • LostMiddlesbrough5 Sep 20260–1
  • WonCardiff2 Sep 20262–1

QPR: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
18 scored, 11 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Burnley

Burnley away

Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost

  • LostLincoln24 Oct 20261–4
  • WonWatford10 Oct 20264–0
  • LostSwansea12 Sep 20261–3
  • DrawnWrexham8 Sep 20261–1
  • LostNorwich29 Aug 20261–4

Burnley: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
12 scored, 26 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
8 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

QPR
Last match
3 days before31 Oct 2026 · v Southampton · Championship
Next match
4 days after7 Nov 2026 · v Lincoln · Championship
Burnley
Last match
3 days before31 Oct 2026 · v Portsmouth · Championship
Next match
4 days after7 Nov 2026 · v Cardiff · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

QPR

Since 5 Nov 2024

ScoreQPRLeague sides
Scored first26 won, 6 drawn, 2 lost in 34 matches1131 won, 350 drawn, 219 lost in 1700 matches
Conceded first8 won, 6 drawn, 34 lost in 48 matches219 won, 350 drawn, 1131 lost in 1700 matches
Level at half-time11 won, 14 drawn, 8 lost in 33 matches465 won, 584 drawn, 465 lost in 1514 matches
1 goal down at half-time3 won, 3 drawn, 15 lost in 21 matches95 won, 165 drawn, 515 lost in 775 matches
Level after 60 minutes11 won, 15 drawn, 3 lost in 29 matches343 won, 588 drawn, 343 lost in 1274 matches
2+ goals down after 60 minutes0 won, 1 drawn, 20 lost in 21 matches4 won, 12 drawn, 391 lost in 407 matches
Level after 70 minutes9 won, 19 drawn, 3 lost in 31 matches279 won, 636 drawn, 279 lost in 1194 matches
2+ goals down after 70 minutes0 won, 0 drawn, 21 lost in 21 matches1 won, 7 drawn, 452 lost in 460 matches
Level after 80 minutes5 won, 19 drawn, 2 lost in 26 matches175 won, 708 drawn, 175 lost in 1058 matches
Level after 15 minutes23 won, 21 drawn, 20 lost in 64 matches931 won, 746 drawn, 931 lost in 2608 matches
Level after 30 minutes14 won, 17 drawn, 11 lost in 42 matches663 won, 638 drawn, 663 lost in 1964 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes4 won, 2 drawn, 18 lost in 24 matches108 won, 147 drawn, 444 lost in 699 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreQPRLeague sides
All matches28 scored, 23 conceded (92)1056 scored, 1056 conceded (3654)
When leading after 75 minutes9 scored, 9 conceded (29)353 scored, 380 conceded (1276)
When level after 75 minutes9 scored, 3 conceded (27)323 scored, 323 conceded (1102)
When trailing after 75 minutes10 scored, 11 conceded (36)380 scored, 353 conceded (1276)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 53 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 20(league sides: 1,916 times, within 15 minutes 327, by full time 846)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Burnley

Since 7 Nov 2024

ScoreBurnleyLeague sides
Scored first22 won, 5 drawn, 7 lost in 34 matches1131 won, 350 drawn, 219 lost in 1700 matches
Conceded first5 won, 10 drawn, 23 lost in 38 matches219 won, 350 drawn, 1131 lost in 1700 matches
Level at half-time9 won, 18 drawn, 9 lost in 36 matches465 won, 584 drawn, 465 lost in 1514 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes15 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost in 20 matches545 won, 171 drawn, 67 lost in 783 matches
Level after 60 minutes3 won, 21 drawn, 6 lost in 30 matches343 won, 588 drawn, 343 lost in 1274 matches
Level after 70 minutes3 won, 22 drawn, 7 lost in 32 matches279 won, 636 drawn, 279 lost in 1194 matches
Level after 80 minutes2 won, 21 drawn, 4 lost in 27 matches175 won, 708 drawn, 175 lost in 1058 matches
Level after 15 minutes16 won, 20 drawn, 17 lost in 53 matches931 won, 746 drawn, 931 lost in 2608 matches
Level after 30 minutes10 won, 19 drawn, 15 lost in 44 matches663 won, 638 drawn, 663 lost in 1964 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreBurnleyLeague sides
All matches21 scored, 23 conceded (84)1056 scored, 1056 conceded (3654)
When leading after 75 minutes8 scored, 6 conceded (27)353 scored, 380 conceded (1276)
When level after 75 minutes6 scored, 9 conceded (30)323 scored, 323 conceded (1102)
When trailing after 75 minutes7 scored, 8 conceded (27)380 scored, 353 conceded (1276)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 46 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 22(league sides: 1,916 times, within 15 minutes 327, by full time 846)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

QPRBurnley
92Since 5 Nov 2024Matches with xG84Since 7 Nov 2024
109.02xG for96.29
124Goals scored107
110.81xG against122.36
133Goals conceded110

QPR

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
QPR: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
31 Oct 2026at Southampton0.781.251–4
24 Oct 2026v Swansea3.300.275–0
17 Oct 2026at Birmingham1.171.340–3
14 Oct 2026v Derby2.051.024–1
9 Oct 2026at West Ham1.271.441–1
19 Sep 2026v Preston2.541.502–2
12 Sep 2026at West Brom0.621.221–1
9 Sep 2026at Charlton1.100.480–0
5 Sep 2026v Middlesbrough1.032.530–1
2 Sep 2026v Cardiff2.090.602–1

Burnley

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Burnley: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
31 Oct 2026v Portsmouth1.970.310–0
24 Oct 2026at Lincoln2.371.941–4
16 Oct 2026v Wolves1.072.021–2
13 Oct 2026v Charlton1.082.132–2
10 Oct 2026at Watford1.940.644–0
19 Sep 2026v Derby0.451.751–1
12 Sep 2026at Swansea1.732.631–3
8 Sep 2026at Wrexham1.501.281–1
5 Sep 2026v Bristol City0.261.061–2
2 Sep 2026v Middlesbrough0.641.221–1

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

QPRBurnley
13 of 13Matches with xG13 of 13
20Points in those matches9
21.55xPts16.30
21.18xG for17.90
14.93xG against20.24

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: QPR and Burnley

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • QPRQPR
    Ruled out
    R. Burrell (Inactive) · T. Lamptey (Inactive) · N. Madsen (Injury) · A. S. Mbengue (Knee Injury)
  • BurnleyBurnley
    Ruled out
    Z. Amdouni (Ankle Injury) · B. Amos (Inactive) · J. Beyer (Hamstring Injury) · J. Bruun Larsen (Injury) · B. Humphreys (Muscle Injury) · H. Mejbri (Hamstring Injury) · M. Obafemi (Inactive) · S. Sambo (Inactive) · M. Tresor Ndayishimiye (Inactive)
    Doubtful
    A. Broja (Injury)

Published 3 Nov 2026, 18:43 GMT · not changed since

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