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Championship
Birmingham
3–0Finished
Millwall
Tue 3 Nov 2026 · 20:00 GMTMatchday 14 · St. Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham

Birmingham v Millwall match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Tue 3 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Birmingham hold a 44% chance of victory at home against Millwall's 28%. The model projects 2.49 expected goals with Birmingham slightly ahead at 1.4 to 1.09. Both teams enter on recent wins, though Millwall are significantly weakened by five absentees compared to Birmingham's two missing players and one doubtful.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 44%Birmingham win
  • 28%Draw
  • 28%Millwall win

PRO analysis

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PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

BirminghamBirmingham

Last 5: 4 wins, no draws, 1 defeat

  1. won3–1at Lincoln
  2. lost0–1at Cardiff
  3. won3–0v QPR
  4. won4–0v Preston
  5. won1–0at West Brom
MillwallMillwall

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

  1. won4–1v Derby
  2. lost1–2at Portsmouth
  3. drew2–2v Lincoln
  4. lost0–1v Swansea
  5. won1–0at Preston

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Birmingham won 21 of 28 matches in which they scored first, since 8 Aug 2025.
  • Millwall won 38 of 52 matches in which they scored first, since 6 Nov 2024.
  • Millwall won 3 of the last 8 meetings.
  • Birmingham unbeaten in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

8 meetings: Birmingham 2, draws 3, Millwall 3

Goals: Birmingham 9, Millwall 10

DateMatchScore
25 Feb 2026Millwall v Birmingham3–0
4 Nov 2025Birmingham v Millwall4–0
9 Mar 2024Millwall v Birmingham1–0
2 Sep 2023Birmingham v Millwall1–1
18 Apr 2023Millwall v Birmingham0–1
2 Nov 2022Birmingham v Millwall0–0
23 Apr 2022Birmingham v Millwall2–2
4 Dec 2021Millwall v Birmingham3–1

Home and away

Birmingham

Birmingham at home

Last 5: 2 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonQPR17 Oct 20263–0
  • WonPreston13 Oct 20264–0
  • DrawnMiddlesbrough19 Sep 20262–2
  • DrawnWolves6 Sep 20262–2
  • DrawnSouthampton1 Sep 20261–1

Birmingham: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
20 scored, 10 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Millwall

Millwall away

Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost

  • LostPortsmouth24 Oct 20261–2
  • WonPreston10 Oct 20261–0
  • DrawnMiddlesbrough15 Sep 20262–2
  • LostBlackburn12 Sep 20261–3
  • LostSouthampton29 Aug 20261–5

Millwall: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
12 scored, 14 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Birmingham
Last match
3 days before31 Oct 2026 · v Lincoln · Championship
Next match
4 days after7 Nov 2026 · v Swansea · Championship
Millwall
Last match
3 days before31 Oct 2026 · v Derby · Championship
Next match
4 days after7 Nov 2026 · v West Brom · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Birmingham

Since 8 Aug 2025

ScoreBirminghamLeague sides
Scored first21 won, 6 drawn, 1 lost in 28 matches1131 won, 350 drawn, 219 lost in 1700 matches
Conceded first2 won, 10 drawn, 17 lost in 29 matches219 won, 350 drawn, 1131 lost in 1700 matches
Level after 15 minutes15 won, 13 drawn, 12 lost in 40 matches931 won, 746 drawn, 931 lost in 2608 matches
Level after 30 minutes11 won, 10 drawn, 9 lost in 30 matches663 won, 638 drawn, 663 lost in 1964 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreBirminghamLeague sides
All matches14 scored, 9 conceded (59)1056 scored, 1056 conceded (3654)
When leading after 75 minutes3 scored, 3 conceded (22)353 scored, 380 conceded (1276)
When trailing after 75 minutes6 scored, 4 conceded (21)380 scored, 353 conceded (1276)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 33 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 16(league sides: 1,916 times, within 15 minutes 327, by full time 846)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Millwall

Since 6 Nov 2024

ScoreMillwallLeague sides
Scored first38 won, 9 drawn, 5 lost in 52 matches1131 won, 350 drawn, 219 lost in 1700 matches
Conceded first4 won, 9 drawn, 24 lost in 37 matches219 won, 350 drawn, 1131 lost in 1700 matches
1 goal up at half-time20 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches515 won, 165 drawn, 95 lost in 775 matches
Level at half-time15 won, 12 drawn, 14 lost in 41 matches465 won, 584 drawn, 465 lost in 1514 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes17 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost in 22 matches545 won, 171 drawn, 67 lost in 783 matches
Level after 60 minutes14 won, 15 drawn, 6 lost in 35 matches343 won, 588 drawn, 343 lost in 1274 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes19 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost in 23 matches572 won, 152 drawn, 46 lost in 770 matches
Level after 70 minutes10 won, 16 drawn, 4 lost in 30 matches279 won, 636 drawn, 279 lost in 1194 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes20 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches649 won, 120 drawn, 18 lost in 787 matches
Level after 80 minutes10 won, 16 drawn, 3 lost in 29 matches175 won, 708 drawn, 175 lost in 1058 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes0 won, 4 drawn, 17 lost in 21 matches18 won, 120 drawn, 649 lost in 787 matches
Level after 15 minutes35 won, 15 drawn, 20 lost in 70 matches931 won, 746 drawn, 931 lost in 2608 matches
Level after 30 minutes26 won, 14 drawn, 18 lost in 58 matches663 won, 638 drawn, 663 lost in 1964 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreMillwallLeague sides
All matches32 scored, 31 conceded (94)1056 scored, 1056 conceded (3654)
When leading after 75 minutes13 scored, 9 conceded (37)353 scored, 380 conceded (1276)
When level after 75 minutes14 scored, 8 conceded (30)323 scored, 323 conceded (1102)
When trailing after 75 minutes5 scored, 14 conceded (27)380 scored, 353 conceded (1276)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 39 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 15(league sides: 1,916 times, within 15 minutes 327, by full time 846)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

BirminghamMillwall
59Since 8 Aug 2025Matches with xG94Since 6 Nov 2024
85.22xG for124.54
80Goals scored118
66.05xG against116.28
69Goals conceded109

Birmingham

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Birmingham: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
31 Oct 2026at Lincoln2.091.633–1
24 Oct 2026at Cardiff0.912.400–1
17 Oct 2026v QPR1.341.173–0
13 Oct 2026v Preston2.240.494–0
10 Oct 2026at West Brom2.551.051–0
19 Sep 2026v Middlesbrough1.232.142–2
12 Sep 2026at Derby3.171.112–1
9 Sep 2026at Norwich1.631.011–2
6 Sep 2026v Wolves1.392.472–2
1 Sep 2026v Southampton1.551.021–1

Millwall

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Millwall: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
31 Oct 2026v Derby3.761.274–1
24 Oct 2026at Portsmouth0.730.911–2
17 Oct 2026v Lincoln1.870.752–2
13 Oct 2026v Swansea1.051.820–1
10 Oct 2026at Preston1.090.651–0
19 Sep 2026v West Ham2.681.872–2
15 Sep 2026at Middlesbrough1.691.522–2
12 Sep 2026at Blackburn1.671.231–3
5 Sep 2026v Bolton2.650.954–0
2 Sep 2026v Wrexham0.230.880–3

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

BirminghamMillwall
13 of 13Matches with xG13 of 13
23Points in those matches18
21.08xPts22.00
22.47xG for24.86
17.63xG against17.01

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Birmingham and Millwall

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • BirminghamBirmingham
    Ruled out
    M. Leonard (Achilles Tendon Injury) · Paik Seung-Ho (Health problems)
    Doubtful
    A. Priske (Health problems)
  • MillwallMillwall
    Ruled out
    T. Arconte (Ankle Injury) · C. De Norre (Muscle Injury) · L. Jensen (Muscle Injury) · F. Marschall (Injury) · J. Metcalfe (Yellow Cards) · M. Servais (Inactive)
    Doubtful
    M. Luongo (Knee Injury)

Published 3 Nov 2026, 18:57 GMT · not changed since

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