LEDGER
Sign inGo PRO
Championship
Derby
0–4Finished
Norwich
Tue 3 Nov 2026 · 19:45 GMTMatchday 14 · Pride Park Stadium, Derby

Derby v Norwich match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Tue 3 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

The model gives Derby a 37% chance of winning, with Norwich at the same 37% and a 27% probability of a draw. Expected goals total 2.84 with essentially no gap between the sides. Derby have one win in their last five matches, while Norwich have lost three of their last five.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 37%Derby win
  • 27%Draw
  • 36%Norwich win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

DerbyDerby

Last 5: no wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats

  1. lost1–4at Millwall
  2. drew1–1at Sheffield Utd
  3. lost0–1v Stoke City
  4. lost1–4at QPR
  5. drew1–1v Wrexham
NorwichNorwich

Last 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats

  1. won3–2v Watford
  2. won3–1at Charlton
  3. lost0–1v Portsmouth
  4. lost0–1v Southampton
  5. lost1–2at Swansea

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Derby won 28 of 43 matches in which they scored first, since 6 Nov 2024.
  • Norwich won 26 of 44 matches in which they scored first, since 5 Nov 2024.
  • Norwich won 2 of the last 4 meetings.
  • Derby without a win in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

4 meetings: Derby 1, draws 1, Norwich 2

Goals: Derby 5, Norwich 6

DateMatchScore
21 Apr 2026Norwich v Derby2–1
21 Oct 2025Derby v Norwich1–0
8 Feb 2025Norwich v Derby1–1
28 Sep 2024Derby v Norwich2–3

Home and away

Derby

Derby at home

Last 5: 0 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost

  • LostStoke City17 Oct 20260–1
  • DrawnWrexham10 Oct 20261–1
  • LostBirmingham12 Sep 20261–2
  • LostWest Brom9 Sep 20260–1
  • LostSwansea29 Aug 20260–3

Derby: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
9 scored, 12 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
4 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Norwich

Norwich away

Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost

  • WonCharlton24 Oct 20263–1
  • LostSwansea10 Oct 20261–2
  • LostManchester CityLeague Cup17 Sep 20260–5
  • LostMiddlesbrough12 Sep 20263–4
  • WonSheffield Utd5 Sep 20263–1

Norwich: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
18 scored, 17 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
8 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Derby
Last match
3 days before31 Oct 2026 · v Millwall · Championship
Next match
3 days after6 Nov 2026 · v Bolton · Championship
Norwich
Last match
3 days before31 Oct 2026 · v Watford · Championship
Next match
4 days after7 Nov 2026 · v Bristol City · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Derby

Since 6 Nov 2024

ScoreDerbyLeague sides
Scored first28 won, 6 drawn, 9 lost in 43 matches1131 won, 350 drawn, 219 lost in 1700 matches
Conceded first2 won, 11 drawn, 32 lost in 45 matches219 won, 350 drawn, 1131 lost in 1700 matches
1 goal up at half-time16 won, 4 drawn, 6 lost in 26 matches515 won, 165 drawn, 95 lost in 775 matches
Level at half-time9 won, 12 drawn, 14 lost in 35 matches465 won, 584 drawn, 465 lost in 1514 matches
1 goal down at half-time1 won, 5 drawn, 14 lost in 20 matches95 won, 165 drawn, 515 lost in 775 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes12 won, 4 drawn, 8 lost in 24 matches545 won, 171 drawn, 67 lost in 783 matches
Level after 60 minutes7 won, 13 drawn, 8 lost in 28 matches343 won, 588 drawn, 343 lost in 1274 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes1 won, 4 drawn, 17 lost in 22 matches67 won, 171 drawn, 545 lost in 783 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes13 won, 5 drawn, 4 lost in 22 matches572 won, 152 drawn, 46 lost in 770 matches
Level after 70 minutes6 won, 11 drawn, 9 lost in 26 matches279 won, 636 drawn, 279 lost in 1194 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes1 won, 5 drawn, 20 lost in 26 matches46 won, 152 drawn, 572 lost in 770 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes14 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches649 won, 120 drawn, 18 lost in 787 matches
Level after 80 minutes6 won, 14 drawn, 4 lost in 24 matches175 won, 708 drawn, 175 lost in 1058 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes0 won, 3 drawn, 26 lost in 29 matches18 won, 120 drawn, 649 lost in 787 matches
Level after 15 minutes20 won, 17 drawn, 26 lost in 63 matches931 won, 746 drawn, 931 lost in 2608 matches
Level after 30 minutes14 won, 16 drawn, 17 lost in 47 matches663 won, 638 drawn, 663 lost in 1964 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreDerbyLeague sides
All matches20 scored, 31 conceded (92)1056 scored, 1056 conceded (3654)
When leading after 75 minutes4 scored, 12 conceded (31)353 scored, 380 conceded (1276)
When level after 75 minutes6 scored, 11 conceded (26)323 scored, 323 conceded (1102)
When trailing after 75 minutes10 scored, 8 conceded (35)380 scored, 353 conceded (1276)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 53 times, equalised within 15 minutes 12, by full time 24(league sides: 1,916 times, within 15 minutes 327, by full time 846)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Norwich

Since 5 Nov 2024

ScoreNorwichLeague sides
Scored first26 won, 8 drawn, 10 lost in 44 matches1131 won, 350 drawn, 219 lost in 1700 matches
Conceded first8 won, 6 drawn, 31 lost in 45 matches219 won, 350 drawn, 1131 lost in 1700 matches
Level at half-time11 won, 10 drawn, 13 lost in 34 matches465 won, 584 drawn, 465 lost in 1514 matches
Level after 60 minutes9 won, 10 drawn, 9 lost in 28 matches343 won, 588 drawn, 343 lost in 1274 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes4 won, 4 drawn, 16 lost in 24 matches67 won, 171 drawn, 545 lost in 783 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes16 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost in 22 matches572 won, 152 drawn, 46 lost in 770 matches
Level after 70 minutes7 won, 11 drawn, 9 lost in 27 matches279 won, 636 drawn, 279 lost in 1194 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes1 won, 2 drawn, 23 lost in 26 matches18 won, 120 drawn, 649 lost in 787 matches
Level after 15 minutes22 won, 13 drawn, 26 lost in 61 matches931 won, 746 drawn, 931 lost in 2608 matches
Level after 30 minutes19 won, 11 drawn, 15 lost in 45 matches663 won, 638 drawn, 663 lost in 1964 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes4 won, 2 drawn, 15 lost in 21 matches108 won, 147 drawn, 444 lost in 699 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreNorwichLeague sides
All matches30 scored, 23 conceded (92)1056 scored, 1056 conceded (3654)
When leading after 75 minutes13 scored, 9 conceded (33)353 scored, 380 conceded (1276)
When level after 75 minutes7 scored, 9 conceded (22)323 scored, 323 conceded (1102)
When trailing after 75 minutes10 scored, 5 conceded (37)380 scored, 353 conceded (1276)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 54 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 20(league sides: 1,916 times, within 15 minutes 327, by full time 846)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

DerbyNorwich
92Since 6 Nov 2024Matches with xG92Since 5 Nov 2024
102.60xG for123.83
110Goals scored134
114.82xG against121.92
123Goals conceded130

Derby

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Derby: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
31 Oct 2026at Millwall1.273.761–4
24 Oct 2026at Sheffield Utd1.152.551–1
17 Oct 2026v Stoke City1.070.620–1
14 Oct 2026at QPR1.022.051–4
10 Oct 2026v Wrexham0.601.461–1
19 Sep 2026at Burnley1.750.451–1
12 Sep 2026v Birmingham1.113.171–2
9 Sep 2026v West Brom1.270.380–1
5 Sep 2026at West Ham0.113.790–3
1 Sep 2026at Portsmouth0.550.842–0

Norwich

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Norwich: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
31 Oct 2026v Watford1.191.003–2
24 Oct 2026at Charlton1.750.873–1
17 Oct 2026v Portsmouth0.371.250–1
14 Oct 2026v Southampton1.262.160–1
10 Oct 2026at Swansea0.682.361–2
20 Sep 2026v Bolton0.691.103–4
12 Sep 2026at Middlesbrough1.762.383–4
9 Sep 2026v Birmingham1.011.632–1
5 Sep 2026at Sheffield Utd3.040.793–1
1 Sep 2026at Stoke City1.440.580–1

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

DerbyNorwich
13 of 13Matches with xG13 of 13
7Points in those matches15
12.86xPts17.42
13.22xG for19.47
25.02xG against20.04

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Derby and Norwich

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • DerbyDerby
    Ruled out
    P. Agyemang (Achilles Tendon Injury) · E. Cashin (Inactive) · M. Clarke (Calf Injury) · C. Forsyth (Knee Injury) · S. Langas (Injury) · D. Murkin (Hamstring Injury) · C. Taylor (Injury) · L. Travis (Ankle Injury)
    Doubtful
    J. Ward (Inactive)
  • NorwichNorwich
    Ruled out
    A. Ahmed (Knee Injury) · P. A. Diallo (Injury) · G. Forsyth (Lacking Match Fitness) · M. Toure (Shoulder Injury)
    Doubtful
    P. Mattsson (Health problems) · K. McLean (Inactive)

Published 3 Nov 2026, 18:42 GMT · not changed since

All fixtures