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Championship
West Brom
3–0Finished
Millwall
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 15:00 GMTMatchday 15 · The Hawthorns, West Bromwich

West Brom v Millwall match analysis

Our selection

PRO members see our selection for this match.

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 7 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

West Brom are favoured by the model with a 42% chance of winning this home match against Millwall's 29%, and a 29% draw probability. The hosts show better recent form with two wins in their last five games, whilst Millwall have managed just one win in the same period. Expected goals total 2.45, with a gap of 0.25 in West Brom's favour.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 42%West Brom win
  • 29%Draw
  • 29%Millwall win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

West BromWest Brom

Last 5: 3 wins, 2 draws, no defeats

  1. drew1–1v Southampton
  2. won3–1at West Ham
  3. drew1–1at Preston
  4. won3–2v Blackburn
  5. won2–1at Wrexham
MillwallMillwall

Last 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats

  1. lost0–3at Birmingham
  2. won4–1v Derby
  3. lost1–2at Portsmouth
  4. drew2–2v Lincoln
  5. lost0–1v Swansea

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • West Brom won 25 of 42 matches in which they scored first, since 7 Nov 2024.
  • Millwall won 37 of 51 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Nov 2024.
  • Millwall won 3 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Under 2.5 goals in 7 of West Brom's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: West Brom 0, draws 7, Millwall 3

Goals: West Brom 4, Millwall 10

DateMatchScore
10 Apr 2026West Brom v Millwall0–0
4 Oct 2025Millwall v West Brom3–0
15 Feb 2025Millwall v West Brom1–1
5 Oct 2024West Brom v Millwall0–0
29 Mar 2024Millwall v West Brom1–1
23 Sep 2023West Brom v Millwall0–0
1 Apr 2023West Brom v Millwall0–0
22 Oct 2022Millwall v West Brom2–1
29 Jan 2022Millwall v West Brom2–0
11 Sep 2021West Brom v Millwall1–1

Home and away

West Brom

West Brom at home

Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost

  • DrawnSouthampton3 Nov 20261–1
  • WonBlackburn17 Oct 20263–2
  • LostBirmingham10 Oct 20260–1
  • DrawnQPR12 Sep 20261–1
  • WonWatford5 Sep 20261–0

West Brom: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
13 scored, 7 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
3 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10
Millwall

Millwall away

Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost

  • LostBirmingham3 Nov 20260–3
  • LostPortsmouth24 Oct 20261–2
  • WonPreston10 Oct 20261–0
  • DrawnMiddlesbrough15 Sep 20262–2
  • LostBlackburn12 Sep 20261–3

Millwall: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
12 scored, 17 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

West Brom
Last match
4 days before3 Nov 2026 · v Southampton · Championship
Next match
14 days after21 Nov 2026 · v Swansea · Championship
Millwall
Last match
4 days before3 Nov 2026 · v Birmingham · Championship
Next match
14 days after21 Nov 2026 · v QPR · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

West Brom

Since 7 Nov 2024

ScoreWest BromLeague sides
Scored first25 won, 14 drawn, 3 lost in 42 matches1138 won, 353 drawn, 221 lost in 1712 matches
Conceded first5 won, 8 drawn, 29 lost in 42 matches221 won, 353 drawn, 1138 lost in 1712 matches
1 goal up at half-time14 won, 7 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches518 won, 167 drawn, 96 lost in 781 matches
Level at half-time9 won, 20 drawn, 12 lost in 41 matches467 won, 584 drawn, 467 lost in 1518 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes17 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches549 won, 172 drawn, 68 lost in 789 matches
Level after 60 minutes6 won, 21 drawn, 8 lost in 35 matches344 won, 590 drawn, 344 lost in 1278 matches
Level after 70 minutes4 won, 23 drawn, 9 lost in 36 matches279 won, 640 drawn, 279 lost in 1198 matches
Level after 80 minutes3 won, 25 drawn, 8 lost in 36 matches175 won, 712 drawn, 175 lost in 1062 matches
Level after 15 minutes20 won, 25 drawn, 25 lost in 70 matches937 won, 750 drawn, 937 lost in 2624 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes16 won, 7 drawn, 1 lost in 24 matches445 won, 149 drawn, 108 lost in 702 matches
Level after 30 minutes11 won, 21 drawn, 18 lost in 50 matches669 won, 640 drawn, 669 lost in 1978 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreWest BromLeague sides
All matches20 scored, 27 conceded (93)1065 scored, 1065 conceded (3678)
When leading after 75 minutes6 scored, 14 conceded (33)356 scored, 386 conceded (1286)
When level after 75 minutes3 scored, 7 conceded (32)323 scored, 323 conceded (1106)
When trailing after 75 minutes11 scored, 6 conceded (28)386 scored, 356 conceded (1286)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 42 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 18(league sides: 1,929 times, within 15 minutes 327, by full time 852)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Millwall

Since 9 Nov 2024

ScoreMillwallLeague sides
Scored first37 won, 9 drawn, 5 lost in 51 matches1138 won, 353 drawn, 221 lost in 1712 matches
Conceded first4 won, 9 drawn, 25 lost in 38 matches221 won, 353 drawn, 1138 lost in 1712 matches
1 goal up at half-time19 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches518 won, 167 drawn, 96 lost in 781 matches
Level at half-time15 won, 12 drawn, 14 lost in 41 matches467 won, 584 drawn, 467 lost in 1518 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes16 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches549 won, 172 drawn, 68 lost in 789 matches
Level after 60 minutes14 won, 15 drawn, 6 lost in 35 matches344 won, 590 drawn, 344 lost in 1278 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes18 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches576 won, 153 drawn, 47 lost in 776 matches
Level after 70 minutes10 won, 16 drawn, 4 lost in 30 matches279 won, 640 drawn, 279 lost in 1198 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes19 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 22 matches654 won, 121 drawn, 19 lost in 794 matches
Level after 80 minutes10 won, 16 drawn, 3 lost in 29 matches175 won, 712 drawn, 175 lost in 1062 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes0 won, 4 drawn, 17 lost in 21 matches19 won, 121 drawn, 654 lost in 794 matches
Level after 15 minutes34 won, 15 drawn, 20 lost in 69 matches937 won, 750 drawn, 937 lost in 2624 matches
Level after 30 minutes25 won, 14 drawn, 18 lost in 57 matches669 won, 640 drawn, 669 lost in 1978 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreMillwallLeague sides
All matches32 scored, 31 conceded (94)1065 scored, 1065 conceded (3678)
When leading after 75 minutes13 scored, 9 conceded (36)356 scored, 386 conceded (1286)
When level after 75 minutes14 scored, 8 conceded (30)323 scored, 323 conceded (1106)
When trailing after 75 minutes5 scored, 14 conceded (28)386 scored, 356 conceded (1286)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 40 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 15(league sides: 1,929 times, within 15 minutes 327, by full time 852)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

West BromMillwall
93Since 7 Nov 2024Matches with xG94Since 9 Nov 2024
119.72xG for125.62
111Goals scored117
101.06xG against116.79
112Goals conceded112

West Brom

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
West Brom: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
3 Nov 2026v Southampton2.511.401–1
31 Oct 2026at West Ham2.080.953–1
24 Oct 2026at Preston2.091.831–1
17 Oct 2026v Blackburn3.720.843–2
13 Oct 2026at Wrexham0.940.382–1
10 Oct 2026v Birmingham1.052.550–1
20 Sep 2026at Wolves0.291.950–1
12 Sep 2026v QPR1.220.621–1
9 Sep 2026at Derby0.381.271–0
5 Sep 2026v Watford1.141.261–0

Millwall

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Millwall: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
3 Nov 2026at Birmingham1.441.380–3
31 Oct 2026v Derby3.761.274–1
24 Oct 2026at Portsmouth0.730.911–2
17 Oct 2026v Lincoln1.870.752–2
13 Oct 2026v Swansea1.051.820–1
10 Oct 2026at Preston1.090.651–0
19 Sep 2026v West Ham2.681.872–2
15 Sep 2026at Middlesbrough1.691.522–2
12 Sep 2026at Blackburn1.671.231–3
5 Sep 2026v Bolton2.650.954–0

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

West BromMillwall
14 of 14Matches with xG14 of 14
25Points in those matches18
19.53xPts23.41
20.79xG for26.30
20.13xG against18.39

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: West Brom and Millwall

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

Team news was not available for this match.

Published 7 Nov 2026, 13:58 GMT · not changed since

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