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Parma v Bologna · analysis and preview
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Most likely: Bologna win
Parma hosts Bologna in Serie A with the model rating Bologna the stronger side at 44% to win compared to Parma's 27%, and a 29% draw probability. Bologna arrive in better form with three wins in their last five matches, while Parma have lost three of four most recently. Expected goals favour Bologna by 0.36, though the match is projected to be relatively tight at 2.32 total.
How the match could end · our estimate
- 27%Parma win
- 29%Draw
- 44%Bologna win
PRO analysis
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Form · newest first
ParmaLast 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats
- won3–0at Atalanta
- drew0–0v Udinese
- lost1–2at Lazio
- lost0–3v Torino
- lost0–3at Inter
BolognaLast 5: 4 wins, no draws, 1 defeat
- won2–1v Monza
- won4–2at AC Milan
- won2–0at Cagliari
- lost1–3v Inter
- won2–1at Lecce
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Parma won 16 of 22 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Nov 2024.
- Bologna won 31 of 46 matches in which they scored first, since 10 Nov 2024.
- Under 2.5 goals in 7 of Parma's last 10 home league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
5 meetings: Parma 2, draws 1, Bologna 2
Goals: Parma 5, Bologna 5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 8 Feb 2026 | Bologna v Parma | 0–1 |
| 4 Dec 2025 | Bologna v ParmaCoppa Italia | 2–1 |
| 2 Nov 2025 | Parma v Bologna | 1–3 |
| 22 Feb 2025 | Parma v Bologna | 2–0 |
| 6 Oct 2024 | Bologna v Parma | 0–0 |
Home and away
ParmaParma at home
Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost
- DrawnUdinese28 Oct 20260–0
- LostTorino19 Oct 20260–3
- WonGenoa20 Sep 20262–1
- DrawnMonza6 Sep 20261–1
- LostCremoneseCoppa Italia1 Sep 20260–2
Parma: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 8 scored, 12 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 4 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 3 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
BolognaBologna away
Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost
- WonAC Milan28 Oct 20264–2
- WonCagliari24 Oct 20262–0
- WonLecce11 Oct 20262–1
- LostNapoli13 Sep 20260–1
- LostAtalanta31 Aug 20260–1
Bologna: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 15 scored, 10 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 4 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 4 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Parma- Last match
- 5 days before2 Nov 2026 · v Atalanta · Serie A
- Next match
- 14 days after21 Nov 2026 · v AS Roma · Serie A
Bologna- Last match
- 7 days before31 Oct 2026 · v Monza · Serie A
- Next match
- Not known
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Parma
Since 9 Nov 2024
| Score | Parma | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 16 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost in 22 matches | 775 won, 239 drawn, 130 lost in 1144 matches |
| Conceded first | 3 won, 9 drawn, 30 lost in 42 matches | 130 won, 239 drawn, 775 lost in 1144 matches |
| Level at half-time | 9 won, 15 drawn, 16 lost in 40 matches | 330 won, 396 drawn, 330 lost in 1056 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 7 won, 18 drawn, 10 lost in 35 matches | 243 won, 410 drawn, 243 lost in 896 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 2 won, 3 drawn, 15 lost in 20 matches | 35 won, 112 drawn, 380 lost in 527 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 9 won, 19 drawn, 5 lost in 33 matches | 182 won, 450 drawn, 182 lost in 814 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 1 won, 2 drawn, 17 lost in 20 matches | 24 won, 97 drawn, 398 lost in 519 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 4 won, 18 drawn, 3 lost in 25 matches | 110 won, 492 drawn, 110 lost in 712 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 15 won, 17 drawn, 22 lost in 54 matches | 632 won, 542 drawn, 632 lost in 1806 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 15 won, 16 drawn, 22 lost in 53 matches | 458 won, 428 drawn, 458 lost in 1344 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Parma | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 23 scored, 26 conceded (75) | 726 scored, 726 conceded (2480) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 11 scored, 9 conceded (32) | 236 scored, 236 conceded (790) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 12 conceded (30) | 235 scored, 255 conceded (845) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 43 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 16(league sides: 1,282 times, within 15 minutes 191, by full time 570)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Bologna
Since 10 Nov 2024
| Score | Bologna | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 31 won, 10 drawn, 5 lost in 46 matches | 775 won, 239 drawn, 130 lost in 1144 matches |
| Conceded first | 9 won, 9 drawn, 24 lost in 42 matches | 130 won, 239 drawn, 775 lost in 1144 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 13 won, 7 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches | 340 won, 124 drawn, 58 lost in 522 matches |
| Level at half-time | 18 won, 13 drawn, 12 lost in 43 matches | 330 won, 396 drawn, 330 lost in 1056 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 20 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost in 26 matches | 380 won, 112 drawn, 35 lost in 527 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 11 won, 11 drawn, 9 lost in 31 matches | 243 won, 410 drawn, 243 lost in 896 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 17 won, 8 drawn, 2 lost in 27 matches | 398 won, 97 drawn, 24 lost in 519 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 10 won, 14 drawn, 4 lost in 28 matches | 182 won, 450 drawn, 182 lost in 814 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 20 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost in 26 matches | 442 won, 85 drawn, 13 lost in 540 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 6 won, 18 drawn, 5 lost in 29 matches | 110 won, 492 drawn, 110 lost in 712 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 30 won, 20 drawn, 23 lost in 73 matches | 632 won, 542 drawn, 632 lost in 1806 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 13 won, 6 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches | 299 won, 111 drawn, 63 lost in 473 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 20 won, 13 drawn, 18 lost in 51 matches | 458 won, 428 drawn, 458 lost in 1344 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Bologna | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 24 scored, 26 conceded (94) | 726 scored, 726 conceded (2480) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 12 scored, 14 conceded (43) | 255 scored, 235 conceded (845) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 5 conceded (26) | 236 scored, 236 conceded (790) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 5 scored, 7 conceded (25) | 235 scored, 255 conceded (845) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 49 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 26(league sides: 1,282 times, within 15 minutes 191, by full time 570)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Parma | Bologna | |
|---|---|---|
| 75Since 9 Nov 2024 | Matches with xG | 76Since 10 Nov 2024 |
| 69.14 | xG for | 97.80 |
| 66 | Goals scored | 108 |
| 115.14 | xG against | 85.96 |
| 102 | Goals conceded | 95 |
Parma
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov 2026 | at Atalanta | 0.52 | 3.02 | 3–0 |
| 28 Oct 2026 | v Udinese | 1.20 | 1.43 | 0–0 |
| 24 Oct 2026 | at Lazio | 0.87 | 1.82 | 1–2 |
| 19 Oct 2026 | v Torino | 1.61 | 1.58 | 0–3 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Inter | 0.46 | 2.42 | 0–3 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | v Genoa | 0.53 | 0.70 | 2–1 |
| 14 Sep 2026 | at Como | 1.15 | 2.98 | 1–2 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | v Monza | 0.73 | 1.72 | 1–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Juventus | 0.25 | 1.58 | 0–2 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Cagliari | 0.75 | 0.94 | 0–1 |
Bologna
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2026 | v Monza | 2.10 | 1.84 | 2–1 |
| 28 Oct 2026 | at AC Milan | 2.11 | 1.84 | 4–2 |
| 24 Oct 2026 | at Cagliari | 1.64 | 0.44 | 2–0 |
| 17 Oct 2026 | v Inter | 1.09 | 3.22 | 1–3 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | at Lecce | 1.98 | 1.49 | 2–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Torino | 0.92 | 1.14 | 1–1 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | at Napoli | 0.29 | 1.19 | 0–1 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | v Sassuolo | 1.88 | 1.62 | 2–2 |
| 31 Aug 2026 | at Atalanta | 1.05 | 0.15 | 0–1 |
| 24 Aug 2026 | v Lazio | 1.78 | 0.63 | 0–1 |
This league season
Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.
| Parma | Bologna | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 of 10 | Matches with xG | 10 of 10 |
| 8 | Points in those matches | 14 |
| 7.76 | xPts | 15.07 |
| 8.07 | xG for | 14.84 |
| 18.19 | xG against | 13.56 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Parma and Bologna
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Team news not available yet.
Updated 7 Nov 2026, 15:57 GMT
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