Genoa v AC Milan · analysis and preview
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Most likely: AC Milan win
AC Milan are slight favourites in this Serie A meeting, with expected goals of 1.45 to Genoa's 1.04. Milan's attacking depth poses the main threat, with an expected goals gap of 0.41 in their favour. Genoa have won two of their last five matches, while Milan have shown inconsistency with two defeats in their last three.
How the match could end · our estimate
- 27%Genoa win
- 28%Draw
- 45%AC Milan win
PRO analysis
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Form · newest first
GenoaLast 5: 4 wins, no draws, 1 defeat
- won2–1at Lecce
- won2–0v Juventus
- won1–0v Venezia
- lost0–2at AS Roma
- won2–1v Fiorentina
AC MilanLast 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats
- lost0–2v Ferencvarosi TC
- won3–1v Inter
- lost2–4v Bologna
- won2–0at Udinese
- lost0–3at Bournemouth
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Genoa won 19 of 30 matches in which they scored first, since 24 Nov 2024.
- AC Milan won 34 of 46 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Nov 2024.
- AC Milan won 5 of the last 9 meetings.
- Genoa unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
9 meetings: Genoa 0, draws 4, AC Milan 5
Goals: Genoa 7, AC Milan 15
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 17 May 2026 | Genoa v AC Milan | 1–2 |
| 8 Jan 2026 | AC Milan v Genoa | 1–1 |
| 5 May 2025 | Genoa v AC Milan | 1–2 |
| 15 Dec 2024 | AC Milan v Genoa | 0–0 |
| 5 May 2024 | AC Milan v Genoa | 3–3 |
| 7 Oct 2023 | Genoa v AC Milan | 0–1 |
| 15 Apr 2022 | AC Milan v Genoa | 2–0 |
| 13 Jan 2022 | AC Milan v GenoaCoppa Italia | 1–1 AET 3–1 |
| 1 Dec 2021 | Genoa v AC Milan | 0–3 |
Home and away
GenoaGenoa at home
Last 5: 4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost
- WonJuventus28 Oct 20262–0
- WonVenezia25 Oct 20261–0
- WonFiorentina10 Oct 20262–1
- WonSudtirolCoppa Italia15 Sep 20261–0
- DrawnFrosinone12 Sep 20261–1
Genoa: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 10 scored, 15 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 4 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
AC MilanAC Milan away
Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost
- WonUdinese25 Oct 20262–0
- LostBournemouthUEFA Europa League22 Oct 20260–3
- WonRed Bull SalzburgUEFA Europa League15 Oct 20264–0
- DrawnSassuolo11 Oct 20261–1
- DrawnLazio12 Sep 20262–2
AC Milan: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 11 scored, 10 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 3 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Genoa- Last match
- 7 days before1 Nov 2026 · v Lecce · Serie A
- Next match
- Not known
AC Milan- Last match
- 3 days before5 Nov 2026 · v Ferencvarosi TC · UEFA Europa League
- Next match
- Not known
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Genoa
Since 24 Nov 2024
| Score | Genoa | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 19 won, 4 drawn, 7 lost in 30 matches | 775 won, 239 drawn, 130 lost in 1144 matches |
| Conceded first | 3 won, 7 drawn, 24 lost in 34 matches | 130 won, 239 drawn, 775 lost in 1144 matches |
| Level at half-time | 9 won, 15 drawn, 12 lost in 36 matches | 330 won, 396 drawn, 330 lost in 1056 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 9 won, 15 drawn, 9 lost in 33 matches | 243 won, 410 drawn, 243 lost in 896 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 6 won, 15 drawn, 9 lost in 30 matches | 182 won, 450 drawn, 182 lost in 814 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 5 won, 15 drawn, 7 lost in 27 matches | 110 won, 492 drawn, 110 lost in 712 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 17 won, 16 drawn, 20 lost in 53 matches | 632 won, 542 drawn, 632 lost in 1806 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 9 won, 14 drawn, 16 lost in 39 matches | 458 won, 428 drawn, 458 lost in 1344 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Genoa | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 19 scored, 17 conceded (74) | 726 scored, 726 conceded (2480) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 10 conceded (30) | 236 scored, 236 conceded (790) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 8 scored, 3 conceded (26) | 235 scored, 255 conceded (845) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 38 times, equalised within 15 minutes 3, by full time 17(league sides: 1,282 times, within 15 minutes 191, by full time 570)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
AC Milan
Since 9 Nov 2024
| Score | AC Milan | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 34 won, 10 drawn, 2 lost in 46 matches | 775 won, 239 drawn, 130 lost in 1144 matches |
| Conceded first | 9 won, 7 drawn, 20 lost in 36 matches | 130 won, 239 drawn, 775 lost in 1144 matches |
| Level at half-time | 22 won, 12 drawn, 9 lost in 43 matches | 330 won, 396 drawn, 330 lost in 1056 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 16 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches | 380 won, 112 drawn, 35 lost in 527 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 13 won, 13 drawn, 7 lost in 33 matches | 243 won, 410 drawn, 243 lost in 896 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 19 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost in 25 matches | 398 won, 97 drawn, 24 lost in 519 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 8 won, 13 drawn, 4 lost in 25 matches | 182 won, 450 drawn, 182 lost in 814 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 22 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 25 matches | 442 won, 85 drawn, 13 lost in 540 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 5 won, 16 drawn, 2 lost in 23 matches | 110 won, 492 drawn, 110 lost in 712 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 34 won, 14 drawn, 13 lost in 61 matches | 632 won, 542 drawn, 632 lost in 1806 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 30 won, 13 drawn, 8 lost in 51 matches | 458 won, 428 drawn, 458 lost in 1344 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | AC Milan | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 29 scored, 20 conceded (86) | 726 scored, 726 conceded (2480) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 9 conceded (36) | 255 scored, 235 conceded (845) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 14 scored, 7 conceded (30) | 236 scored, 236 conceded (790) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 8 scored, 4 conceded (20) | 235 scored, 255 conceded (845) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 39 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 23(league sides: 1,282 times, within 15 minutes 191, by full time 570)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Genoa | AC Milan | |
|---|---|---|
| 74Since 24 Nov 2024 | Matches with xG | 76Since 9 Nov 2024 |
| 81.35 | xG for | 123.84 |
| 79 | Goals scored | 118 |
| 89.61 | xG against | 87.95 |
| 92 | Goals conceded | 79 |
Genoa
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Nov 2026 | at Lecce | 1.36 | 1.23 | 2–1 |
| 28 Oct 2026 | v Juventus | 1.05 | 1.28 | 2–0 |
| 25 Oct 2026 | v Venezia | 0.41 | 1.82 | 1–0 |
| 17 Oct 2026 | at AS Roma | 0.49 | 1.37 | 0–2 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | v Fiorentina | 1.46 | 0.82 | 2–1 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | at Parma | 0.70 | 0.53 | 1–2 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Frosinone | 1.88 | 1.93 | 1–1 |
| 4 Sep 2026 | v Como | 0.78 | 1.78 | 1–4 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | at Lazio | 0.42 | 1.62 | 0–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Napoli | 0.67 | 0.77 | 0–2 |
AC Milan
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2026 | v Inter | 0.70 | 1.74 | 3–1 |
| 28 Oct 2026 | v Bologna | 1.84 | 2.11 | 2–4 |
| 25 Oct 2026 | at Udinese | 3.59 | 0.55 | 2–0 |
| 18 Oct 2026 | v Atalanta | 2.58 | 1.74 | 3–2 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | at Sassuolo | 1.18 | 1.19 | 1–1 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | v Lecce | 2.19 | 0.21 | 3–0 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Lazio | 1.25 | 2.01 | 2–2 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | at Juventus | 0.11 | 1.59 | 1–1 |
| 28 Aug 2026 | v Venezia | 2.21 | 0.80 | 2–0 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | at Torino | 2.15 | 1.29 | 2–1 |
This league season
Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.
| Genoa | AC Milan | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 of 10 | Matches with xG | 10 of 10 |
| 13 | Points in those matches | 21 |
| 10.85 | xPts | 15.95 |
| 9.22 | xG for | 17.80 |
| 13.15 | xG against | 13.23 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Genoa and AC Milan
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- L. Venturino (Jumpers Knee)
Updated 7 Nov 2026, 17:08 GMT
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