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Serie A
AC Milan
3–1Finished
Inter
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 19:45 GMTMatchday 10 · San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan

AC Milan v Inter match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 31 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

The model gives Inter a 45% chance of winning this Milan derby compared to Milan's 28%. Inter's expected output is 1.58 goals, Milan's 1.18, with a total expected of 2.76. Inter have won four of their last five matches while Milan have won two, and both teams arrive depleted by injuries.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 28%AC Milan win
  • 27%Draw
  • 45%Inter win

PRO analysis

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PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

AC MilanAC Milan

Last 5: 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats

  1. lost2–4v Bologna
  2. won2–0at Udinese
  3. lost0–3at Bournemouth
  4. won3–2v Atalanta
  5. won4–0at Red Bull Salzburg
InterInter

Last 5: 4 wins, no draws, 1 defeat

  1. won2–0at Venezia
  2. won2–1v Fiorentina
  3. won1–0v Shakhtar Donetsk
  4. won3–1at Bologna
  5. lost3–4v Club Brugge KV

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • AC Milan won 35 of 47 matches in which they scored first, since 2 Nov 2024.
  • Serie A, since 19 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 219 of 278.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of AC Milan's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: AC Milan 4, draws 2, Inter 4

Goals: AC Milan 11, Inter 13

DateMatchScore
8 Mar 2026AC Milan v Inter1–0
23 Nov 2025Inter v AC Milan0–1
23 Apr 2025Inter v AC MilanCoppa Italia0–3
2 Apr 2025AC Milan v InterCoppa Italia1–1
2 Feb 2025AC Milan v Inter1–1
22 Sep 2024Inter v AC Milan1–2
22 Apr 2024AC Milan v Inter1–2
16 Sep 2023Inter v AC Milan5–1
16 May 2023Inter v AC MilanUEFA Champions League1–0
10 May 2023AC Milan v InterUEFA Champions League0–2

Home and away

AC Milan

AC Milan at home

Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostBologna28 Oct 20262–4
  • WonAtalanta18 Oct 20263–2
  • WonLecce20 Sep 20263–0
  • LostBenficaUEFA Europa League16 Sep 20260–2
  • WonVenezia28 Aug 20262–0

AC Milan: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
17 scored, 16 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10
Inter

Inter away

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonVenezia28 Oct 20262–0
  • WonBologna17 Oct 20263–1
  • DrawnAS Roma19 Sep 20262–2
  • LostReal MadridUEFA Champions League8 Sep 20261–2
  • WonCagliari30 Aug 20261–0

Inter: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
21 scored, 13 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

AC Milan
Last match
3 days before28 Oct 2026 · v Bologna · Serie A
Next match
5 days after5 Nov 2026 · v Ferencvarosi TC · UEFA Europa League
Inter
Last match
3 days before28 Oct 2026 · v Venezia · Serie A
Next match
3 days after3 Nov 2026 · v Feyenoord · UEFA Champions League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 2 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

AC Milan

ScoreAC MilanLeague sides
Scored first35 won, 10 drawn, 2 lost in 47 matches768 won, 239 drawn, 128 lost in 1135 matches
Conceded first9 won, 7 drawn, 19 lost in 35 matches128 won, 239 drawn, 768 lost in 1135 matches
1 goal up at half-time13 won, 5 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches337 won, 124 drawn, 58 lost in 519 matches
Level at half-time22 won, 12 drawn, 8 lost in 42 matches326 won, 396 drawn, 326 lost in 1048 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes18 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 22 matches376 won, 112 drawn, 35 lost in 523 matches
Level after 60 minutes13 won, 13 drawn, 7 lost in 33 matches241 won, 410 drawn, 241 lost in 892 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes21 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost in 27 matches394 won, 97 drawn, 24 lost in 515 matches
Level after 70 minutes8 won, 13 drawn, 4 lost in 25 matches180 won, 450 drawn, 180 lost in 810 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes23 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 26 matches437 won, 85 drawn, 13 lost in 535 matches
Level after 80 minutes5 won, 16 drawn, 2 lost in 23 matches109 won, 492 drawn, 109 lost in 710 matches
Level after 15 minutes35 won, 14 drawn, 12 lost in 61 matches626 won, 542 drawn, 626 lost in 1794 matches
Level after 30 minutes32 won, 13 drawn, 7 lost in 52 matches454 won, 428 drawn, 454 lost in 1336 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreAC MilanLeague sides
All matches29 scored, 20 conceded (86)719 scored, 719 conceded (2462)
When leading after 75 minutes7 scored, 9 conceded (37)252 scored, 234 conceded (838)
When level after 75 minutes14 scored, 7 conceded (30)233 scored, 233 conceded (786)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 38 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 23(league sides: 1,272 times, within 15 minutes 190, by full time 567)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

AC MilanInter
76Since 2 Nov 2024Matches with xG74Since 3 Nov 2024
125.68xG for147.40
116Goals scored169
87.39xG against69.00
78Goals conceded64

AC Milan

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
AC Milan: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
28 Oct 2026v Bologna1.842.112–4
25 Oct 2026at Udinese3.590.552–0
18 Oct 2026v Atalanta2.581.743–2
11 Oct 2026at Sassuolo1.181.191–1
20 Sep 2026v Lecce2.190.213–0
12 Sep 2026at Lazio1.252.012–2
6 Sep 2026at Juventus0.111.591–1
28 Aug 2026v Venezia2.210.802–0
23 Aug 2026at Torino2.151.292–1
24 May 2026v Cagliari1.742.781–2

Inter

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Inter: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
28 Oct 2026at Venezia2.391.672–0
25 Oct 2026v Fiorentina3.150.242–1
17 Oct 2026at Bologna3.221.093–1
10 Oct 2026v Parma2.420.463–0
19 Sep 2026at AS Roma2.861.662–2
14 Sep 2026v Udinese3.050.925–3
5 Sep 2026v Napoli3.862.433–2
30 Aug 2026at Cagliari3.670.481–0
22 Aug 2026v Monza1.051.234–1
23 May 2026at Bologna1.781.403–3

Inter: 1 without xG left out

This league season

Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.

AC MilanInter
9 of 9Matches with xG9 of 9
18Points in those matches25
15.29xPts20.36
17.10xG for25.67
11.49xG against10.18

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: AC Milan and Inter

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • AC MilanAC Milan
    Ruled out
    S. Chukwueze (Hip Injury) · M. Gabbia (Thigh Injury) · R. Loftus-Cheek (Thigh Injury) · A. Saelemaekers (Ankle Injury) · F. Tomori (Muscle Injury)
  • InterInter
    Ruled out
    C. Jones (Thigh Injury) · Luis Henrique (Thigh Injury) · L. Martinez (Thigh Injury) · B. Pavard (Thigh Injury) · J. Stones (Muscle Injury)

Published 31 Oct 2026, 18:42 GMT · not changed since

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