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Serie A
Torino
1–1Finished
Lecce
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 14:00 GMTMatchday 11 · Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Turin

Torino v Lecce match analysis

Our selection

PRO members see our selection for this match.

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 7 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

The model gives Torino a 49% chance of winning, Lecce a 23% chance and a draw a 28% probability. Expected goals favour Torino by a gap of 0.52, with a total of 2.46 goals anticipated. Torino have won three of their last five matches, while Lecce have won just once in five.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 49%Torino win
  • 28%Draw
  • 23%Lecce win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

TorinoTorino

Last 5: 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats

  1. lost0–2at Frosinone
  2. lost1–3v Como
  3. won3–2v Monza
  4. won3–0at Parma
  5. won2–1v Udinese
LecceLecce

Last 5: 1 win, no draws, 4 defeats

  1. lost1–2v Genoa
  2. lost1–5at Frosinone
  3. lost0–2v Juventus
  4. won3–0at Udinese
  5. lost1–2v Bologna

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Torino won 19 of 28 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Nov 2024.
  • Lecce won 18 of 28 matches in which they scored first, since 8 Nov 2024.
  • Torino won 5 of the last 8 meetings.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 9 of Torino's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

8 meetings: Torino 5, draws 1, Lecce 2

Goals: Torino 8, Lecce 3

DateMatchScore
1 Feb 2026Torino v Lecce1–0
30 Nov 2025Lecce v Torino2–1
18 May 2025Lecce v Torino1–0
15 Sep 2024Torino v Lecce0–0
16 Feb 2024Torino v Lecce2–0
28 Oct 2023Lecce v Torino0–1
12 Mar 2023Lecce v Torino0–2
5 Sep 2022Torino v Lecce1–0

Home and away

Torino

Torino at home

Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost

  • LostComo27 Oct 20261–3
  • WonMonza23 Oct 20263–2
  • WonUdinese12 Oct 20262–1
  • LostAS Roma14 Sep 20260–2
  • LostMonzaCoppa Italia1 Sep 20260–1

Torino: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
19 scored, 17 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
9 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
9 of 10
Clean sheets
0 of 10
Lecce

Lecce away

Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost

  • LostFrosinone29 Oct 20261–5
  • WonUdinese18 Oct 20263–0
  • LostAC Milan20 Sep 20260–3
  • LostCagliari7 Sep 20260–1
  • WonVenezia23 Aug 20262–0

Lecce: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
11 scored, 15 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
3 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Torino
Last match
6 days before1 Nov 2026 · v Frosinone · Serie A
Next match
14 days after21 Nov 2026 · v Napoli · Serie A
Lecce
Last match
6 days before1 Nov 2026 · v Genoa · Serie A
Next match
14 days after21 Nov 2026 · v Lazio · Serie A

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Torino

Since 9 Nov 2024

ScoreTorinoLeague sides
Scored first19 won, 5 drawn, 4 lost in 28 matches775 won, 239 drawn, 130 lost in 1144 matches
Conceded first3 won, 11 drawn, 27 lost in 41 matches130 won, 239 drawn, 775 lost in 1144 matches
Level at half-time10 won, 12 drawn, 11 lost in 33 matches330 won, 396 drawn, 330 lost in 1056 matches
1 goal down at half-time1 won, 7 drawn, 12 lost in 20 matches58 won, 124 drawn, 340 lost in 522 matches
Level after 60 minutes6 won, 11 drawn, 6 lost in 23 matches243 won, 410 drawn, 243 lost in 896 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes3 won, 9 drawn, 14 lost in 26 matches35 won, 112 drawn, 380 lost in 527 matches
Level after 70 minutes2 won, 15 drawn, 5 lost in 22 matches182 won, 450 drawn, 182 lost in 814 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes1 won, 7 drawn, 14 lost in 22 matches24 won, 97 drawn, 398 lost in 519 matches
Level after 80 minutes2 won, 18 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches110 won, 492 drawn, 110 lost in 712 matches
Level after 15 minutes15 won, 19 drawn, 25 lost in 59 matches632 won, 542 drawn, 632 lost in 1806 matches
Level after 30 minutes13 won, 15 drawn, 15 lost in 43 matches458 won, 428 drawn, 458 lost in 1344 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreTorinoLeague sides
All matches19 scored, 19 conceded (75)726 scored, 726 conceded (2480)
When leading after 75 minutes4 scored, 5 conceded (20)255 scored, 235 conceded (845)
When level after 75 minutes5 scored, 4 conceded (22)236 scored, 236 conceded (790)
When trailing after 75 minutes10 scored, 10 conceded (33)235 scored, 255 conceded (845)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 49 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 22(league sides: 1,282 times, within 15 minutes 191, by full time 570)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Lecce

Since 8 Nov 2024

ScoreLecceLeague sides
Scored first18 won, 4 drawn, 6 lost in 28 matches775 won, 239 drawn, 130 lost in 1144 matches
Conceded first1 won, 4 drawn, 34 lost in 39 matches130 won, 239 drawn, 775 lost in 1144 matches
Level at half-time8 won, 12 drawn, 11 lost in 31 matches330 won, 396 drawn, 330 lost in 1056 matches
Level after 60 minutes6 won, 12 drawn, 10 lost in 28 matches243 won, 410 drawn, 243 lost in 896 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes0 won, 3 drawn, 19 lost in 22 matches35 won, 112 drawn, 380 lost in 527 matches
Level after 70 minutes2 won, 13 drawn, 8 lost in 23 matches182 won, 450 drawn, 182 lost in 814 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes0 won, 3 drawn, 20 lost in 23 matches24 won, 97 drawn, 398 lost in 519 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes0 won, 2 drawn, 23 lost in 25 matches13 won, 85 drawn, 442 lost in 540 matches
Level after 15 minutes12 won, 15 drawn, 26 lost in 53 matches632 won, 542 drawn, 632 lost in 1806 matches
Level after 30 minutes10 won, 12 drawn, 15 lost in 37 matches458 won, 428 drawn, 458 lost in 1344 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes0 won, 1 drawn, 19 lost in 20 matches63 won, 111 drawn, 299 lost in 473 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreLecceLeague sides
All matches14 scored, 20 conceded (75)726 scored, 726 conceded (2480)
When trailing after 75 minutes7 scored, 13 conceded (38)235 scored, 255 conceded (845)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 44 times, equalised within 15 minutes 3, by full time 9(league sides: 1,282 times, within 15 minutes 191, by full time 570)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

TorinoLecce
75Since 9 Nov 2024Matches with xG75Since 8 Nov 2024
80.51xG for68.97
82Goals scored62
104.22xG against117.89
108Goals conceded109

Torino

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Torino: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
1 Nov 2026at Frosinone0.681.930–2
27 Oct 2026v Como1.172.281–3
23 Oct 2026v Monza1.400.683–2
19 Oct 2026at Parma1.581.613–0
12 Oct 2026v Udinese2.620.762–1
19 Sep 2026at Bologna1.140.921–1
14 Sep 2026v AS Roma0.861.850–2
5 Sep 2026at Fiorentina0.581.672–1
29 Aug 2026at Sassuolo1.261.851–2
23 Aug 2026v AC Milan1.292.151–2

Lecce

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Lecce: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
1 Nov 2026v Genoa1.231.361–2
29 Oct 2026at Frosinone1.423.401–5
25 Oct 2026v Juventus0.861.060–2
18 Oct 2026at Udinese3.470.543–0
11 Oct 2026v Bologna1.491.981–2
20 Sep 2026at AC Milan0.212.190–3
13 Sep 2026v Monza1.082.793–2
7 Sep 2026at Cagliari0.501.610–1
31 Aug 2026v AS Roma0.803.270–4
23 Aug 2026at Venezia2.702.052–0

This league season

Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.

TorinoLecce
10 of 10Matches with xG10 of 10
13Points in those matches9
11.80xPts10.14
12.58xG for13.76
15.70xG against20.25

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Torino and Lecce

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • TorinoTorino
    Ruled out
    P. Pellegri (Jumpers Knee)
  • LecceLecceNo injuries or suspensions reported.

Published 7 Nov 2026, 12:58 GMT · not changed since

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