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Serie A
Lecce
1–2Finished
Genoa
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 17:00 GMTMatchday 10 · Stadio Via del Mare, Lecce

Lecce v Genoa match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 1 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Lecce hosts Genoa in a low-scoring contest. Expected goals are 1.03 for Lecce and 1.27 for Genoa, totalling 2.3. Lecce are without form (LLWLL), while Genoa have won two of their last five (WWLWL). Lecce are missing Berisha, Coulibaly, Ilic and Pierotti; Genoa miss Venturino and have doubts over Ellertsson and Havel.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 30%Lecce win
  • 30%Draw
  • 40%Genoa win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

LecceLecce

Last 5: 1 win, no draws, 4 defeats

  1. lost1–5at Frosinone
  2. lost0–2v Juventus
  3. won3–0at Udinese
  4. lost1–2v Bologna
  5. lost0–3at AC Milan
GenoaGenoa

Last 5: 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats

  1. won2–0v Juventus
  2. won1–0v Venezia
  3. lost0–2at AS Roma
  4. won2–1v Fiorentina
  5. lost1–2at Parma

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Lecce won 19 of 29 matches in which they scored first, since 2 Nov 2024.
  • Genoa won 21 of 32 matches in which they scored first, since 4 Nov 2024.
  • Genoa without a win in their last 5 away games.
  • Under 2.5 goals in 8 of Genoa's last 10 away league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

6 meetings: Lecce 2, draws 2, Genoa 2

Goals: Lecce 4, Genoa 4

DateMatchScore
24 May 2026Lecce v Genoa1–0
23 Aug 2025Genoa v Lecce0–0
14 Mar 2025Genoa v Lecce2–1
5 Jan 2025Lecce v Genoa0–0
28 Jan 2024Genoa v Lecce2–1
22 Sep 2023Lecce v Genoa1–0

Home and away

Lecce

Lecce at home

Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost

  • LostJuventus25 Oct 20260–2
  • LostBologna11 Oct 20261–2
  • WonMonza13 Sep 20263–2
  • LostAS Roma31 Aug 20260–4
  • WonGenoa24 May 20261–0

Lecce: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
8 scored, 18 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
4 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10
Genoa

Genoa away

Last 5: 0 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost

  • LostAS Roma17 Oct 20260–2
  • LostParma20 Sep 20261–2
  • LostLazio30 Aug 20260–1
  • LostLecce24 May 20260–1
  • DrawnFiorentina10 May 20260–0

Genoa: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
5 scored, 11 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
2 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
2 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Lecce
Last match
3 days before29 Oct 2026 · v Frosinone · Serie A
Next match
6 days after7 Nov 2026 · v Torino · Serie A
Genoa
Last match
4 days before28 Oct 2026 · v Juventus · Serie A
Next match
7 days after8 Nov 2026 · v AC Milan · Serie A

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Lecce

Since 2 Nov 2024

ScoreLecceLeague sides
Scored first19 won, 4 drawn, 6 lost in 29 matches772 won, 239 drawn, 129 lost in 1140 matches
Conceded first1 won, 4 drawn, 36 lost in 41 matches129 won, 239 drawn, 772 lost in 1140 matches
Level at half-time8 won, 12 drawn, 12 lost in 32 matches328 won, 396 drawn, 328 lost in 1052 matches
Level after 60 minutes6 won, 12 drawn, 11 lost in 29 matches242 won, 410 drawn, 242 lost in 894 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes0 won, 3 drawn, 18 lost in 21 matches35 won, 112 drawn, 378 lost in 525 matches
Level after 70 minutes2 won, 13 drawn, 9 lost in 24 matches181 won, 450 drawn, 181 lost in 812 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes0 won, 3 drawn, 19 lost in 22 matches24 won, 97 drawn, 396 lost in 517 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes0 won, 2 drawn, 22 lost in 24 matches13 won, 85 drawn, 439 lost in 537 matches
Level after 15 minutes13 won, 15 drawn, 28 lost in 56 matches629 won, 542 drawn, 629 lost in 1800 matches
Level after 30 minutes10 won, 12 drawn, 16 lost in 38 matches456 won, 428 drawn, 456 lost in 1340 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes0 won, 1 drawn, 21 lost in 22 matches62 won, 111 drawn, 299 lost in 472 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreLecceLeague sides
All matches15 scored, 21 conceded (78)723 scored, 723 conceded (2472)
When level after 75 minutes1 scored, 6 conceded (20)234 scored, 234 conceded (788)
When trailing after 75 minutes7 scored, 13 conceded (39)235 scored, 254 conceded (842)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 45 times, equalised within 15 minutes 3, by full time 9(league sides: 1,277 times, within 15 minutes 190, by full time 568)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Genoa

Since 4 Nov 2024

ScoreGenoaLeague sides
Scored first21 won, 4 drawn, 7 lost in 32 matches772 won, 239 drawn, 129 lost in 1140 matches
Conceded first5 won, 8 drawn, 25 lost in 38 matches129 won, 239 drawn, 772 lost in 1140 matches
Level at half-time12 won, 15 drawn, 12 lost in 39 matches328 won, 396 drawn, 328 lost in 1052 matches
Level after 60 minutes11 won, 15 drawn, 9 lost in 35 matches242 won, 410 drawn, 242 lost in 894 matches
Level after 70 minutes8 won, 15 drawn, 9 lost in 32 matches181 won, 450 drawn, 181 lost in 812 matches
Level after 80 minutes6 won, 15 drawn, 7 lost in 28 matches110 won, 492 drawn, 110 lost in 712 matches
Level after 15 minutes22 won, 17 drawn, 21 lost in 60 matches629 won, 542 drawn, 629 lost in 1800 matches
Level after 30 minutes13 won, 14 drawn, 16 lost in 43 matches456 won, 428 drawn, 456 lost in 1340 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreGenoaLeague sides
All matches24 scored, 19 conceded (80)723 scored, 723 conceded (2472)
When leading after 75 minutes6 scored, 4 conceded (20)254 scored, 235 conceded (842)
When level after 75 minutes9 scored, 10 conceded (32)234 scored, 234 conceded (788)
When trailing after 75 minutes9 scored, 5 conceded (28)235 scored, 254 conceded (842)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 42 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 20(league sides: 1,277 times, within 15 minutes 190, by full time 568)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

LecceGenoa
75Since 2 Nov 2024Matches with xG75Since 4 Nov 2024
68.37xG for82.24
61Goals scored79
117.98xG against90.88
108Goals conceded92

Lecce

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Lecce: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
29 Oct 2026at Frosinone1.423.401–5
25 Oct 2026v Juventus0.861.060–2
18 Oct 2026at Udinese3.470.543–0
11 Oct 2026v Bologna1.491.981–2
20 Sep 2026at AC Milan0.212.190–3
13 Sep 2026v Monza1.082.793–2
7 Sep 2026at Cagliari0.501.610–1
31 Aug 2026v AS Roma0.803.270–4
23 Aug 2026at Venezia2.702.052–0
24 May 2026v Genoa1.430.681–0

Genoa

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Genoa: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
28 Oct 2026v Juventus1.051.282–0
25 Oct 2026v Venezia0.411.821–0
17 Oct 2026at AS Roma0.491.370–2
10 Oct 2026v Fiorentina1.460.822–1
20 Sep 2026at Parma0.700.531–2
12 Sep 2026v Frosinone1.881.931–1
4 Sep 2026v Como0.781.781–4
30 Aug 2026at Lazio0.421.620–1
22 Aug 2026v Napoli0.670.770–2
24 May 2026at Lecce0.681.430–1

This league season

Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.

LecceGenoa
9 of 9Matches with xG9 of 9
9Points in those matches10
8.86xPts9.39
12.53xG for7.86
18.89xG against11.92

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Lecce and Genoa

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • LecceLecce
    Ruled out
    M. Berisha (Thigh Injury) · L. Coulibaly (Thigh Injury) · K. Gaspar (Red Card) · W. Geubbels (Muscle Injury) · I. Ilic (Thigh Injury) · S. Pierotti (Ankle Injury)
  • GenoaGenoa
    Ruled out
    E. Havel (Ankle Injury) · L. Venturino (Knee Injury)
    Doubtful
    M. E. Ellertsson (Ankle Injury)

Published 1 Nov 2026, 15:57 GMT · not changed since

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