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Bundesliga
FC Schalke 04
0–2Finished
RB Leipzig
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 14:30 GMTMatchday 8 · VELTINS-Arena, Gelsenkirchen

FC Schalke 04 v RB Leipzig match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 31 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

The model gives Leipzig a 53% chance to win, compared to Schalke's 23% and a 24% draw probability. Leipzig's expected output is 1.82 goals versus Schalke's 1.13, a gap of 0.69 in Leipzig's favour. Form heavily favours Leipzig, who have won two of their last five matches while Schalke have lost three; Schalke are also managing multiple injury absences.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 23%FC Schalke 04 win
  • 24%Draw
  • 53%RB Leipzig win

PRO analysis

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PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

FC Schalke 04FC Schalke 04

Last 5: no wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats

  1. lost0–2at Dynamo Dresden
  2. drew0–0at 1. FC Köln
  3. lost0–1v FSV Mainz 05
  4. lost1–2at SC Freiburg
  5. drew0–0v SV Elversberg
RB LeipzigRB Leipzig

Last 5: 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats

  1. won2–1at Rot-Weiß Essen
  2. won4–0v SV Elversberg
  3. lost1–4at Real Madrid
  4. lost1–6at Bayern München
  5. won1–0v PSV Eindhoven

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Bundesliga, since 18 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 148 of 197.
  • RB Leipzig won 30 of 45 matches in which they scored first, since 2 Nov 2024.
  • Under 2.5 goals in 7 of FC Schalke 04's last 10 home league games.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 8 of RB Leipzig's last 10 away league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

2 meetings: FC Schalke 04 0, draws 0, RB Leipzig 2

Goals: FC Schalke 04 3, RB Leipzig 10

DateMatchScore
27 May 2023RB Leipzig v FC Schalke 044–2
24 Jan 2023FC Schalke 04 v RB Leipzig1–6

Home and away

FC Schalke 04

FC Schalke 04 at home

Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost

  • LostFSV Mainz 0517 Oct 20260–1
  • DrawnSV Elversberg20 Sep 20260–0
  • DrawnBayern München5 Sep 20260–0
  • WonEintracht Braunschweig2. Bundesliga17 May 20261–0
  • WonFortuna Düsseldorf2. Bundesliga2 May 20261–0

FC Schalke 04: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
15 scored, 7 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
3 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
3 of 10
Clean sheets
6 of 10
RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig away

Last 5: 1 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost

  • WonRot-Weiß EssenDFB Pokal27 Oct 20262–1
  • LostReal MadridUEFA Champions League21 Oct 20261–4
  • LostBayern München17 Oct 20261–6
  • LostBayer Leverkusen20 Sep 20260–2
  • LostComoUEFA Champions League10 Sep 20261–4

RB Leipzig: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
13 scored, 24 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
8 of 10
Clean sheets
0 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

FC Schalke 04
Last match
3 days before28 Oct 2026 · v Dynamo Dresden · DFB Pokal
Next match
8 days after8 Nov 2026 · v 1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga
RB Leipzig
Last match
4 days before27 Oct 2026 · v Rot-Weiß Essen · DFB Pokal
Next match
4 days after4 Nov 2026 · v Manchester City · UEFA Champions League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 2 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

RB Leipzig

ScoreRB LeipzigLeague sides
Scored first30 won, 5 drawn, 10 lost in 45 matches611 won, 197 drawn, 127 lost in 935 matches
Conceded first4 won, 4 drawn, 17 lost in 25 matches127 won, 197 drawn, 611 lost in 935 matches
Level at half-time10 won, 9 drawn, 6 lost in 25 matches207 won, 292 drawn, 207 lost in 706 matches
Level after 15 minutes25 won, 11 drawn, 17 lost in 53 matches490 won, 362 drawn, 490 lost in 1342 matches
Level after 30 minutes15 won, 10 drawn, 12 lost in 37 matches323 won, 314 drawn, 323 lost in 960 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreRB LeipzigLeague sides
All matches25 scored, 27 conceded (76)718 scored, 718 conceded (1976)
When leading after 75 minutes11 scored, 8 conceded (33)300 scored, 268 conceded (737)
When trailing after 75 minutes10 scored, 15 conceded (27)268 scored, 300 conceded (737)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 36 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 12(league sides: 1,128 times, within 15 minutes 194, by full time 513)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 18 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 2 Nov 2024

FC Schalke 04RB Leipzig
—Matches with xG67
—xG for117.55
—Goals scored125
—xG against107.32
—Goals conceded103

RB Leipzig

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
RB Leipzig: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
24 Oct 2026v SV Elversberg2.910.684–0
17 Oct 2026at Bayern München0.903.481–6
10 Oct 2026v Eintracht Frankfurt4.031.466–0
20 Sep 2026at Bayer Leverkusen0.972.270–2
13 Sep 2026v Hamburger SV2.431.105–0
5 Sep 2026at Werder Bremen1.500.951–3
29 Aug 2026v Borussia Mönchengladbach3.961.093–0
16 May 2026at SC Freiburg1.241.411–4
9 May 2026v FC St. Pauli1.370.792–1
2 May 2026at Bayer Leverkusen1.174.421–4

This league season

Bundesliga matches since 28 Aug 2026.

FC Schalke 04RB Leipzig
7 of 7Matches with xG7 of 7
6Points in those matches12
5.99xPts12.64
7.15xG for16.70
12.59xG against11.03

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: FC Schalke 04 and RB Leipzig

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • FC Schalke 04FC Schalke 04
    Ruled out
    J. Bachmann (Hip Injury) · S. El-Faouzi (Broken nose) · A. Gantenbein (Muscle Injury) · R. Gosens (Head Injury) · M. Sylla (Leg Injury) · L. Vozar (Illness) · M. Wober (Muscle Injury)
  • RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
    Ruled out
    M. Esteve (Knock) · M. Guiu (Hamstring Injury) · A. Ouedraogo (Shoulder Injury)

Published 31 Oct 2026, 13:27 GMT · not changed since

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