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Bundesliga
Bayern München
2–2Finished
Borussia Dortmund
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 17:30 GMTMatchday 8 · Allianz Arena, Munich

Bayern München v Borussia Dortmund match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 31 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Bayern Munich hold a strong model advantage with a 70% chance of winning this Bundesliga clash. The expected goals favour the hosts at 2.65 to 1.13, a gap of 1.52, and Bayern's recent form shows three wins in five. Both teams carry injury concerns into the match, with Bayern missing Buchmann and Diaz and Dortmund without Can, Konstantelias and Lerma.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 70%Bayern München win
  • 17%Draw
  • 13%Borussia Dortmund win

PRO analysis

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PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Bayern MünchenBayern München

Last 5: 3 wins, 2 draws, no defeats

  1. won6–1v 1. FC Magdeburg
  2. won3–1at SC Freiburg
  3. drew2–2v Arsenal
  4. won6–1v RB Leipzig
  5. drew3–3at Viking
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

  1. won3–2v Werder Bremen
  2. won1–0v Eintracht Frankfurt
  3. won2–1at Sabah FA
  4. drew0–0at Union Berlin
  5. lost0–1at Bodo/Glimt

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Bundesliga, since 18 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 149 of 198.
  • Borussia Dortmund won 47 of 63 matches in which they scored first, since 2 Nov 2024.
  • Bayern München won 6 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Bayern München unbeaten in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Bayern München 6, draws 3, Borussia Dortmund 1

Goals: Bayern München 24, Borussia Dortmund 15

DateMatchScore
28 Feb 2026Borussia Dortmund v Bayern München2–3
18 Oct 2025Bayern München v Borussia Dortmund2–1
12 Apr 2025Bayern München v Borussia Dortmund2–2
30 Nov 2024Borussia Dortmund v Bayern München1–1
30 Mar 2024Bayern München v Borussia Dortmund0–2
4 Nov 2023Borussia Dortmund v Bayern München0–4
1 Apr 2023Bayern München v Borussia Dortmund4–2
8 Oct 2022Borussia Dortmund v Bayern München2–2
23 Apr 2022Bayern München v Borussia Dortmund3–1
4 Dec 2021Borussia Dortmund v Bayern München2–3

Home and away

Bayern München

Bayern München at home

Last 5: 4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost

  • Won1. FC MagdeburgDFB Pokal28 Oct 20266–1
  • DrawnArsenalUEFA Champions League21 Oct 20262–2
  • WonRB Leipzig17 Oct 20266–1
  • WonUnion Berlin18 Sep 20267–0
  • WonBodo/GlimtUEFA Champions League10 Sep 20265–0

Bayern München: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
46 scored, 12 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
10 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund away

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonSabah FAUEFA Champions League20 Oct 20262–1
  • DrawnUnion Berlin17 Oct 20260–0
  • LostBodo/GlimtUEFA Champions League14 Oct 20260–1
  • WonVfB Stuttgart19 Sep 20261–0
  • Won1899 Hoffenheim5 Sep 20263–2

Borussia Dortmund: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
15 scored, 9 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Bayern München
Last match
3 days before28 Oct 2026 · v 1. FC Magdeburg · DFB Pokal
Next match
3 days after3 Nov 2026 · v Atletico Madrid · UEFA Champions League
Borussia Dortmund
Last match
4 days before27 Oct 2026 · v Werder Bremen · DFB Pokal
Next match
4 days after4 Nov 2026 · v Real Betis · UEFA Champions League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 2 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Borussia Dortmund

ScoreBorussia DortmundLeague sides
Scored first47 won, 14 drawn, 2 lost in 63 matches614 won, 197 drawn, 128 lost in 939 matches
Conceded first7 won, 2 drawn, 19 lost in 28 matches128 won, 197 drawn, 614 lost in 939 matches
1 goal up at half-time24 won, 5 drawn, 2 lost in 31 matches271 won, 92 drawn, 56 lost in 419 matches
Level at half-time13 won, 11 drawn, 5 lost in 29 matches208 won, 294 drawn, 208 lost in 710 matches
2+ goals up after 60 minutes25 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost in 26 matches299 won, 14 drawn, 6 lost in 319 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes17 won, 8 drawn, 1 lost in 26 matches251 won, 91 drawn, 30 lost in 372 matches
Level after 60 minutes9 won, 8 drawn, 4 lost in 21 matches156 won, 292 drawn, 156 lost in 604 matches
2+ goals up after 70 minutes24 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches334 won, 7 drawn, 3 lost in 344 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes20 won, 10 drawn, 1 lost in 31 matches275 won, 94 drawn, 22 lost in 391 matches
2+ goals up after 80 minutes31 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost in 32 matches362 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost in 365 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes15 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches289 won, 77 drawn, 15 lost in 381 matches
Level after 80 minutes8 won, 11 drawn, 3 lost in 22 matches75 won, 344 drawn, 75 lost in 494 matches
Level after 15 minutes37 won, 16 drawn, 17 lost in 70 matches493 won, 364 drawn, 493 lost in 1350 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes20 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost in 26 matches250 won, 82 drawn, 62 lost in 394 matches
Level after 30 minutes25 won, 13 drawn, 9 lost in 47 matches325 won, 316 drawn, 325 lost in 966 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreBorussia DortmundLeague sides
All matches52 scored, 32 conceded (93)722 scored, 722 conceded (1986)
When leading after 75 minutes27 scored, 15 conceded (49)302 scored, 269 conceded (740)
When level after 75 minutes15 scored, 8 conceded (23)151 scored, 151 conceded (506)
When trailing after 75 minutes10 scored, 9 conceded (21)269 scored, 302 conceded (740)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 32 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 16(league sides: 1,132 times, within 15 minutes 194, by full time 514)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 18 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 2 Nov 2024

Bayern MünchenBorussia Dortmund
67Matches with xG67
186.08xG for124.25
217Goals scored138
68.42xG against77.50
67Goals conceded75

Bayern München

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Bayern München: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
25 Oct 2026at SC Freiburg2.911.013–1
17 Oct 2026v RB Leipzig3.480.906–1
10 Oct 2026at FC Augsburg4.962.372–2
18 Sep 2026v Union Berlin3.710.347–0
13 Sep 2026at SV Elversberg2.830.942–1
5 Sep 2026at FC Schalke 041.940.210–0
28 Aug 2026v VfB Stuttgart4.060.795–1
16 May 2026v 1. FC Köln3.050.985–1
9 May 2026at VfL Wolfsburg1.853.041–0
2 May 2026v 1. FC Heidenheim2.312.593–3

Borussia Dortmund

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Borussia Dortmund: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
24 Oct 2026v Eintracht Frankfurt1.560.911–0
17 Oct 2026at Union Berlin1.420.900–0
9 Oct 2026v Werder Bremen2.421.132–2
19 Sep 2026at VfB Stuttgart1.340.871–0
12 Sep 2026v SC Paderborn 071.760.493–0
5 Sep 2026at 1899 Hoffenheim2.021.173–2
29 Aug 2026v Hamburger SV1.530.912–0
16 May 2026at Werder Bremen2.740.492–0
8 May 2026v Eintracht Frankfurt1.941.123–2
3 May 2026at Borussia Mönchengladbach0.492.200–1

This league season

Bundesliga matches since 28 Aug 2026.

Bayern MünchenBorussia Dortmund
7 of 7Matches with xG7 of 7
17Points in those matches17
18.14xPts13.45
23.89xG for12.05
6.56xG against6.38

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Bayern München and Borussia Dortmund

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • Bayern MünchenBayern München
    Ruled out
    T. Buchmann (Knee Injury) · L. Diaz (Muscle Injury) · J. Musiala (Muscle Injury) · M. Neuer (Foot Injury)
  • Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
    Ruled out
    E. Can (Knee Injury) · G. Konstantelias (Knee Injury) · J. Lerma (Muscle Injury)
    Doubtful
    K. Karetsas (Ankle Injury)

Published 31 Oct 2026, 16:28 GMT · not changed since

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