Union Berlin v 1. FC Köln match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 1 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Union Berlin face a weakened 1. FC Köln side missing six players, including key defenders. The model gives Union a 40% chance of winning, with a draw at 26% and Köln at 34%. Expected goals stand at 1.53 for Union and 1.41 for Köln, a gap of 0.12 in Union's favour. Union have also been hit by injuries, missing five players of their own.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 40%Union Berlin win
- 26%Draw
- 34%1. FC Köln win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
Union BerlinLast 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats
- lost0–5at 1. FC Köln
- drew1–1at FC Augsburg
- drew0–0v Borussia Dortmund
- won1–0v SV Elversberg
- lost0–7at Bayern München
1. FC KölnLast 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats
- won5–0v Union Berlin
- drew0–0v FC Schalke 04
- lost0–1at Eintracht Frankfurt
- won2–1v Borussia Mönchengladbach
- lost1–2at Hamburger SV
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Union Berlin won 14 of 22 matches in which they scored first, since 2 Nov 2024.
- 1. FC Köln avoided defeat in 9 of 24 matches in which their opponent scored first, since 24 Aug 2025.
- Union Berlin won 4 of the last 9 meetings.
- Both teams scored in 8 of 1. FC Köln's last 10 away league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
9 meetings: Union Berlin 4, draws 3, 1. FC Köln 2
Goals: Union Berlin 11, 1. FC Köln 12
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 27 Oct 2026 | 1. FC Köln v Union BerlinDFB Pokal | 5–0 |
| 2 May 2026 | Union Berlin v 1. FC Köln | 2–2 |
| 20 Dec 2025 | 1. FC Köln v Union Berlin | 0–1 |
| 11 May 2024 | 1. FC Köln v Union Berlin | 3–2 |
| 20 Dec 2023 | Union Berlin v 1. FC Köln | 2–0 |
| 4 Mar 2023 | Union Berlin v 1. FC Köln | 0–0 |
| 11 Sep 2022 | 1. FC Köln v Union Berlin | 0–1 |
| 1 Apr 2022 | Union Berlin v 1. FC Köln | 1–0 |
| 7 Nov 2021 | 1. FC Köln v Union Berlin | 2–2 |
Home and away
Union BerlinUnion Berlin at home
Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost
- DrawnBorussia Dortmund17 Oct 20260–0
- WonSV Elversberg10 Oct 20261–0
- LostFC Schalke 0411 Sep 20261–3
- DrawnEintracht Frankfurt29 Aug 20263–3
- WonFC Augsburg16 May 20264–0
Union Berlin: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 15 scored, 15 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
1. FC Köln1. FC Köln away
Last 5: 1 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost
- LostEintracht Frankfurt16 Oct 20260–1
- LostHamburger SV19 Sep 20261–2
- LostVfB Stuttgart4 Sep 20261–4
- WonWürzburger KickersDFB Pokal24 Aug 20262–1
- LostBayern München16 May 20261–5
1. FC Köln: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 10 scored, 23 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 8 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Union Berlin- Last match
- 5 days before27 Oct 2026 · v 1. FC Köln · DFB Pokal
- Next match
- 7 days after8 Nov 2026 · v SC Freiburg · Bundesliga
1. FC Köln- Last match
- 5 days before27 Oct 2026 · v Union Berlin · DFB Pokal
- Next match
- 7 days after8 Nov 2026 · v Bayer Leverkusen · Bundesliga
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Union Berlin
Since 2 Nov 2024
| Score | Union Berlin | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 14 won, 4 drawn, 4 lost in 22 matches | 614 won, 198 drawn, 128 lost in 940 matches |
| Conceded first | 3 won, 10 drawn, 27 lost in 40 matches | 128 won, 198 drawn, 614 lost in 940 matches |
| Level at half-time | 6 won, 13 drawn, 4 lost in 23 matches | 208 won, 294 drawn, 208 lost in 710 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 2 won, 6 drawn, 12 lost in 20 matches | 56 won, 93 drawn, 271 lost in 420 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 6 won, 13 drawn, 5 lost in 24 matches | 156 won, 294 drawn, 156 lost in 606 matches |
| 2+ goals down after 60 minutes | 0 won, 0 drawn, 21 lost in 21 matches | 6 won, 14 drawn, 299 lost in 319 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 6 won, 14 drawn, 4 lost in 24 matches | 108 won, 300 drawn, 108 lost in 516 matches |
| 2+ goals down after 70 minutes | 0 won, 3 drawn, 21 lost in 24 matches | 3 won, 7 drawn, 334 lost in 344 matches |
| 2+ goals down after 80 minutes | 0 won, 0 drawn, 20 lost in 20 matches | 1 won, 2 drawn, 362 lost in 365 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 13 won, 17 drawn, 20 lost in 50 matches | 493 won, 366 drawn, 493 lost in 1352 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 9 won, 13 drawn, 14 lost in 36 matches | 325 won, 318 drawn, 325 lost in 968 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Union Berlin | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 26 scored, 24 conceded (68) | 723 scored, 723 conceded (1988) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 3 conceded (20) | 151 scored, 151 conceded (506) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 13 scored, 16 conceded (36) | 270 scored, 302 conceded (741) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 44 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 15(league sides: 1,134 times, within 15 minutes 194, by full time 516)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
1. FC Köln
Since 24 Aug 2025
| Score | 1. FC Köln | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Conceded first | 2 won, 7 drawn, 15 lost in 24 matches | 128 won, 198 drawn, 614 lost in 940 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 9 won, 8 drawn, 14 lost in 31 matches | 493 won, 366 drawn, 493 lost in 1352 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 3 won, 8 drawn, 13 lost in 24 matches | 325 won, 318 drawn, 325 lost in 968 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | 1. FC Köln | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 24 scored, 14 conceded (42) | 723 scored, 723 conceded (1988) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 15 scored, 7 conceded (21) | 270 scored, 302 conceded (741) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 32 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 18(league sides: 1,134 times, within 15 minutes 194, by full time 516)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 18 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Union Berlin | 1. FC Köln | |
|---|---|---|
| 67Since 2 Nov 2024 | Matches with xG | 41Since 24 Aug 2025 |
| 82.79 | xG for | 63.31 |
| 77 | Goals scored | 57 |
| 106.64 | xG against | 67.07 |
| 121 | Goals conceded | 74 |
Union Berlin
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2026 | at FC Augsburg | 1.24 | 1.91 | 1–1 |
| 17 Oct 2026 | v Borussia Dortmund | 0.90 | 1.42 | 0–0 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | v SV Elversberg | 1.13 | 0.24 | 1–0 |
| 18 Sep 2026 | at Bayern München | 0.34 | 3.71 | 0–7 |
| 11 Sep 2026 | v FC Schalke 04 | 1.95 | 2.52 | 1–3 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at Bayer Leverkusen | 0.39 | 3.11 | 0–4 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.84 | 1.47 | 3–3 |
| 16 May 2026 | v FC Augsburg | 3.68 | 0.61 | 4–0 |
| 10 May 2026 | at FSV Mainz 05 | 2.68 | 1.57 | 3–1 |
| 2 May 2026 | v 1. FC Köln | 1.15 | 1.75 | 2–2 |
1. FC Köln
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2026 | v FC Schalke 04 | 1.29 | 0.66 | 0–0 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | at Eintracht Frankfurt | 0.82 | 1.84 | 0–1 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | v Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1.32 | 1.17 | 2–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Hamburger SV | 1.41 | 1.45 | 1–2 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Werder Bremen | 1.65 | 1.12 | 1–1 |
| 4 Sep 2026 | at VfB Stuttgart | 2.86 | 3.47 | 1–4 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v 1899 Hoffenheim | 1.95 | 1.88 | 3–2 |
| 16 May 2026 | at Bayern München | 0.98 | 3.05 | 1–5 |
| 10 May 2026 | v 1. FC Heidenheim | 1.17 | 1.36 | 1–3 |
| 2 May 2026 | at Union Berlin | 1.75 | 1.15 | 2–2 |
This league season
Bundesliga matches since 28 Aug 2026.
| Union Berlin | 1. FC Köln | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 of 7 | Matches with xG | 7 of 7 |
| 6 | Points in those matches | 8 |
| 7.01 | xPts | 9.68 |
| 7.79 | xG for | 11.30 |
| 14.38 | xG against | 11.59 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- A. Ilic (Illness) · A. Markgraf (Knee Injury) · S. Nsoki (Muscle Injury) · R. Skov (Injury) · F. Uduokhai (Red Card)
- Ruled out
- R. Ache (Thigh Injury) · T. Dallinga (Knee Injury) · T. Hubers (Knee Injury) · I. Rondic (Injury) · E. Skhiri (Ankle Injury) · R. van den Berg (Muscle Injury)
Published 1 Nov 2026, 13:28 GMT · not changed since
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