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Bundesliga
SV Elversberg
4–1Finished
FSV Mainz 05
Fri 30 Oct 2026 · 19:30 GMTMatchday 8 · Ursapharm-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg

SV Elversberg v FSV Mainz 05 match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Fri 30 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

The model makes this an evenly matched fixture, with Elversberg given a 38% chance of victory and Mainz 37%, plus a 25% draw probability. Both teams are expected to create similar chances, producing a combined 3.12 expected goals with no gap between them. Elversberg have won once in five matches (two defeats most recently), while Mainz have also won once in five including back-to-back defeats.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 38%SV Elversberg win
  • 25%Draw
  • 37%FSV Mainz 05 win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

SV ElversbergSV Elversberg

Last 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats

  1. lost0–2v SV Darmstadt 98
  2. lost0–4at RB Leipzig
  3. won4–3v FC Augsburg
  4. lost0–1at Union Berlin
  5. drew0–0at FC Schalke 04
FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05

Last 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats

  1. lost0–2at VfL Bochum
  2. lost2–3v Werder Bremen
  3. won1–0at FC Schalke 04
  4. lost3–4v Bayer Leverkusen
  5. won4–3at Borussia Mönchengladbach

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Bundesliga, since 18 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 148 of 197.
  • FSV Mainz 05 won 21 of 32 matches in which they scored first, since 3 Nov 2024.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 9 of SV Elversberg's last 10 home league games.
  • Both teams scored in 7 of SV Elversberg's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

2 meetings: SV Elversberg 0, draws 1, FSV Mainz 05 1

Goals: SV Elversberg 1, FSV Mainz 05 2

DateMatchScore
12 Aug 2023SV Elversberg v FSV Mainz 05DFB Pokal0–1
8 Aug 2021SV Elversberg v FSV Mainz 05DFB Pokal1–1 PEN 2–2

Home and away

SV Elversberg

SV Elversberg at home

Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostSV Darmstadt 98DFB Pokal27 Oct 20260–2
  • WonFC Augsburg17 Oct 20264–3
  • LostBayern München13 Sep 20261–2
  • WonBayer Leverkusen29 Aug 20263–2
  • WonPreußen Münster2. Bundesliga17 May 20263–0

SV Elversberg: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
27 scored, 12 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
9 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
FSV Mainz 05

FSV Mainz 05 away

Last 5: 4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost

  • LostVfL BochumDFB Pokal27 Oct 20260–2
  • WonFC Schalke 0417 Oct 20261–0
  • WonBorussia Mönchengladbach19 Sep 20264–3
  • WonHamburger SV6 Sep 20265–0
  • WonKrieschowDFB Pokal23 Aug 20269–0

FSV Mainz 05: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
20 scored, 11 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

SV Elversberg
Last match
3 days before27 Oct 2026 · v SV Darmstadt 98 · DFB Pokal
Next match
8 days after7 Nov 2026 · v Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05
Last match
3 days before27 Oct 2026 · v VfL Bochum · DFB Pokal
Next match
8 days after7 Nov 2026 · v Bayern München · Bundesliga

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 3 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

FSV Mainz 05

ScoreFSV Mainz 05League sides
Scored first21 won, 7 drawn, 4 lost in 32 matches610 won, 197 drawn, 127 lost in 934 matches
Conceded first4 won, 7 drawn, 21 lost in 32 matches127 won, 197 drawn, 610 lost in 934 matches
1 goal up at half-time12 won, 7 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches269 won, 92 drawn, 55 lost in 416 matches
Level after 15 minutes12 won, 14 drawn, 14 lost in 40 matches490 won, 362 drawn, 490 lost in 1342 matches
Level after 30 minutes9 won, 11 drawn, 11 lost in 31 matches323 won, 314 drawn, 323 lost in 960 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreFSV Mainz 05League sides
All matches20 scored, 28 conceded (68)716 scored, 716 conceded (1974)
When leading after 75 minutes9 scored, 17 conceded (31)299 scored, 267 conceded (736)
When trailing after 75 minutes7 scored, 4 conceded (21)267 scored, 299 conceded (736)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 33 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 15(league sides: 1,127 times, within 15 minutes 194, by full time 513)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 18 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 3 Nov 2024

SV ElversbergFSV Mainz 05
—Matches with xG67
—xG for111.17
—Goals scored103
—xG against103.62
—Goals conceded96

FSV Mainz 05

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
FSV Mainz 05: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
24 Oct 2026v Werder Bremen1.732.582–3
17 Oct 2026at FC Schalke 041.530.331–0
10 Oct 2026v Bayer Leverkusen3.132.093–4
19 Sep 2026at Borussia Mönchengladbach2.823.244–3
12 Sep 2026v Eintracht Frankfurt2.122.041–3
6 Sep 2026at Hamburger SV2.770.195–0
29 Aug 2026v SC Paderborn 071.230.730–0
16 May 2026at 1. FC Heidenheim3.712.532–0
10 May 2026v Union Berlin1.572.681–3
3 May 2026at FC St. Pauli2.540.842–1

This league season

Bundesliga matches since 28 Aug 2026.

SV ElversbergFSV Mainz 05
7 of 7Matches with xG7 of 7
10Points in those matches10
6.51xPts12.36
10.14xG for15.33
15.63xG against11.20

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: SV Elversberg and FSV Mainz 05

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • SV ElversbergSV Elversberg
    Ruled out
    T. Zimmerschied (Ankle Injury)
    Doubtful
    N. Darvich (Hamstring Injury) · L. Gunther (Knock) · J. Gyamerah (Thigh Injury) · L. Pinckert (Muscle Injury) · L. Seifert (Ankle Injury)
  • FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
    Ruled out
    D. Kohr (Foot Injury) · Silas (Broken shinbone)
    Doubtful
    N. Amiri (Knee Injury) · O. Ruoppi (Knee Injury)

Published 30 Oct 2026, 18:27 GMT · not changed since

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