SC Freiburg v Union Berlin · analysis and preview
Add to JournalOur selection
PRO members see our selection for this match.
Most likely: SC Freiburg win
The model gives Freiburg a 64% chance of winning at home, with expected goals of 2.19 to Union's 1.04, a gap of 1.15 in Freiburg's favour and 3.23 combined. Freiburg have won their last two matches, though Union have shown fight with a win and draw in their recent five games. Head-to-head records show Union have taken points from recent visits to Freiburg.
How the match could end · our estimate
- 64%SC Freiburg win
- 21%Draw
- 15%Union Berlin win
PRO analysis
This analysis is part of PRO
PRO shows the full analysis of every match: our estimate next to the bookmaker’s price for each market, the written preview and the risks, and a signal whenever a match qualifies.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
SC FreiburgLast 5: 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats
- won1–0at Trabzonspor
- won2–1at FC Augsburg
- won3–2v VfL Wolfsburg
- lost1–3v Bayern München
- lost0–3at Monaco
Union BerlinLast 5: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 defeat
- drew1–1v 1. FC Köln
- lost0–5at 1. FC Köln
- drew1–1at FC Augsburg
- drew0–0v Borussia Dortmund
- won1–0v SV Elversberg
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- SC Freiburg won 31 of 43 matches in which they scored first, since 8 Nov 2024.
- Union Berlin won 14 of 23 matches in which they scored first, since 8 Nov 2024.
- Union Berlin won 5 of the last 10 meetings.
- Over 2.5 goals in 8 of SC Freiburg's last 10 home league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
10 meetings: SC Freiburg 1, draws 4, Union Berlin 5
Goals: SC Freiburg 9, Union Berlin 14
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar 2026 | SC Freiburg v Union Berlin | 0–1 |
| 1 Nov 2025 | Union Berlin v SC Freiburg | 0–0 |
| 30 Mar 2025 | SC Freiburg v Union Berlin | 1–2 |
| 8 Nov 2024 | Union Berlin v SC Freiburg | 0–0 |
| 18 May 2024 | Union Berlin v SC Freiburg | 2–1 |
| 13 Jan 2024 | SC Freiburg v Union Berlin | 0–0 |
| 13 May 2023 | Union Berlin v SC Freiburg | 4–2 |
| 13 Nov 2022 | SC Freiburg v Union Berlin | 4–1 |
| 7 May 2022 | SC Freiburg v Union Berlin | 1–4 |
| 15 Dec 2021 | Union Berlin v SC Freiburg | 0–0 |
Home and away
SC FreiburgSC Freiburg at home
Last 5: 4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost
- WonVfL WolfsburgDFB Pokal28 Oct 20263–2
- LostBayern München25 Oct 20261–3
- WonFK JablonecUEFA Europa Conference League15 Oct 20263–2
- WonFC Schalke 0411 Oct 20262–1
- WonBorussia Mönchengladbach12 Sep 20265–0
SC Freiburg: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 24 scored, 15 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 8 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 8 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
Union BerlinUnion Berlin away
Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost
- Lost1. FC KölnDFB Pokal27 Oct 20260–5
- DrawnFC Augsburg24 Oct 20261–1
- LostBayern München18 Sep 20260–7
- LostBayer Leverkusen5 Sep 20260–4
- WonEintracht BraunschweigDFB Pokal23 Aug 20264–2
Union Berlin: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 9 scored, 27 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 7 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
SC Freiburg- Last match
- 3 days before5 Nov 2026 · v Trabzonspor · UEFA Europa Conference League
- Next match
- 13 days after21 Nov 2026 · v SV Elversberg · Bundesliga
Union Berlin- Last match
- 7 days before1 Nov 2026 · v 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga
- Next match
- 13 days after21 Nov 2026 · v RB Leipzig · Bundesliga
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 8 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
SC Freiburg
| Score | SC Freiburg | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 31 won, 5 drawn, 7 lost in 43 matches | 615 won, 199 drawn, 128 lost in 942 matches |
| Conceded first | 8 won, 6 drawn, 20 lost in 34 matches | 128 won, 199 drawn, 615 lost in 942 matches |
| Level at half-time | 11 won, 11 drawn, 14 lost in 36 matches | 209 won, 294 drawn, 209 lost in 712 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 7 won, 11 drawn, 10 lost in 28 matches | 156 won, 294 drawn, 156 lost in 606 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 8 won, 11 drawn, 6 lost in 25 matches | 108 won, 300 drawn, 108 lost in 516 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 8 won, 14 drawn, 5 lost in 27 matches | 75 won, 346 drawn, 75 lost in 496 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 33 won, 15 drawn, 19 lost in 67 matches | 494 won, 366 drawn, 494 lost in 1354 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 20 won, 15 drawn, 18 lost in 53 matches | 326 won, 318 drawn, 326 lost in 970 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | SC Freiburg | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 28 scored, 31 conceded (83) | 724 scored, 724 conceded (1992) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 8 scored, 13 conceded (30) | 302 scored, 271 conceded (743) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 6 conceded (29) | 151 scored, 151 conceded (506) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 12 conceded (24) | 271 scored, 302 conceded (743) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 43 times, equalised within 15 minutes 11, by full time 23(league sides: 1,137 times, within 15 minutes 195, by full time 518)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Union Berlin
| Score | Union Berlin | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 14 won, 5 drawn, 4 lost in 23 matches | 615 won, 199 drawn, 128 lost in 942 matches |
| Conceded first | 3 won, 10 drawn, 26 lost in 39 matches | 128 won, 199 drawn, 615 lost in 942 matches |
| Level at half-time | 6 won, 13 drawn, 4 lost in 23 matches | 209 won, 294 drawn, 209 lost in 712 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 2 won, 6 drawn, 12 lost in 20 matches | 56 won, 94 drawn, 271 lost in 421 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 6 won, 13 drawn, 5 lost in 24 matches | 156 won, 294 drawn, 156 lost in 606 matches |
| 2+ goals down after 60 minutes | 0 won, 0 drawn, 20 lost in 20 matches | 6 won, 14 drawn, 299 lost in 319 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 6 won, 14 drawn, 4 lost in 24 matches | 108 won, 300 drawn, 108 lost in 516 matches |
| 2+ goals down after 70 minutes | 0 won, 3 drawn, 20 lost in 23 matches | 3 won, 7 drawn, 335 lost in 345 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 5 won, 14 drawn, 1 lost in 20 matches | 75 won, 346 drawn, 75 lost in 496 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 13 won, 17 drawn, 20 lost in 50 matches | 494 won, 366 drawn, 494 lost in 1354 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 9 won, 13 drawn, 14 lost in 36 matches | 326 won, 318 drawn, 326 lost in 970 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Union Berlin | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 26 scored, 25 conceded (68) | 724 scored, 724 conceded (1992) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 3 conceded (20) | 151 scored, 151 conceded (506) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 13 scored, 16 conceded (35) | 271 scored, 302 conceded (743) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 43 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 15(league sides: 1,137 times, within 15 minutes 195, by full time 518)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 18 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 8 Nov 2024
| SC Freiburg | Union Berlin | |
|---|---|---|
| 67 | Matches with xG | 67 |
| 93.79 | xG for | 83.20 |
| 105 | Goals scored | 78 |
| 93.27 | xG against | 105.38 |
| 109 | Goals conceded | 119 |
SC Freiburg
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2026 | at FC Augsburg | 1.45 | 1.53 | 2–1 |
| 25 Oct 2026 | v Bayern München | 1.01 | 2.91 | 1–3 |
| 18 Oct 2026 | at Bayer Leverkusen | 1.21 | 1.64 | 1–2 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | v FC Schalke 04 | 1.15 | 0.32 | 2–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Eintracht Frankfurt | 3.09 | 2.18 | 2–2 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2.60 | 0.19 | 5–0 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at SC Paderborn 07 | 1.24 | 0.77 | 1–0 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | v Werder Bremen | 2.37 | 0.54 | 4–1 |
| 16 May 2026 | v RB Leipzig | 1.41 | 1.24 | 4–1 |
| 10 May 2026 | at Hamburger SV | 0.41 | 1.98 | 2–3 |
Union Berlin
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Nov 2026 | v 1. FC Köln | 0.91 | 1.22 | 1–1 |
| 24 Oct 2026 | at FC Augsburg | 1.24 | 1.91 | 1–1 |
| 17 Oct 2026 | v Borussia Dortmund | 0.90 | 1.42 | 0–0 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | v SV Elversberg | 1.13 | 0.24 | 1–0 |
| 18 Sep 2026 | at Bayern München | 0.34 | 3.71 | 0–7 |
| 11 Sep 2026 | v FC Schalke 04 | 1.95 | 2.52 | 1–3 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at Bayer Leverkusen | 0.39 | 3.11 | 0–4 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.84 | 1.47 | 3–3 |
| 16 May 2026 | v FC Augsburg | 3.68 | 0.61 | 4–0 |
| 10 May 2026 | at FSV Mainz 05 | 2.68 | 1.57 | 3–1 |
This league season
Bundesliga matches since 28 Aug 2026.
| SC Freiburg | Union Berlin | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 of 8 | Matches with xG | 8 of 8 |
| 16 | Points in those matches | 7 |
| 13.75 | xPts | 8.13 |
| 14.12 | xG for | 8.70 |
| 10.08 | xG against | 15.60 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: SC Freiburg and Union Berlin
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Team news not available yet.
Updated 7 Nov 2026, 16:33 GMT
All fixtures