Bayern München v 1. FC Köln · analysis and preview
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Most likely: Bayern München win
Bayern München are heavily favoured by the model with an 88% chance of victory. Expected goals of 3.67 for Bayern versus 0.8 for Köln suggest a significant quality gap, with a total of 4.47 expected. Bayern have mixed recent form with two wins in their last five, while Köln have managed just one win in their last five matches.
How the match could end · our estimate
- 88%Bayern München win
- 8%Draw
- 4%1. FC Köln win
PRO analysis
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Form · newest first
Bayern MünchenLast 5: 3 wins, 2 draws, no defeats
- won2–0at Atletico Madrid
- drew2–2v Borussia Dortmund
- won6–1v 1. FC Magdeburg
- won3–1at SC Freiburg
- drew2–2v Arsenal
1. FC KölnLast 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat
- drew1–1at Union Berlin
- won5–0v Union Berlin
- drew0–0v FC Schalke 04
- lost0–1at Eintracht Frankfurt
- won2–1v Borussia Mönchengladbach
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Bundesliga, since 18 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 149 of 200.
- 1. FC Köln avoided defeat in 10 of 25 matches in which their opponent scored first, since 24 Aug 2025.
- Bayern München won 8 of the last 9 meetings.
- Bayern München unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
9 meetings: Bayern München 8, draws 1, 1. FC Köln 0
Goals: Bayern München 25, 1. FC Köln 7
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 16 May 2026 | Bayern München v 1. FC Köln | 5–1 |
| 14 Jan 2026 | 1. FC Köln v Bayern München | 1–3 |
| 29 Oct 2025 | 1. FC Köln v Bayern MünchenDFB Pokal | 1–4 |
| 13 Apr 2024 | Bayern München v 1. FC Köln | 2–0 |
| 24 Nov 2023 | 1. FC Köln v Bayern München | 0–1 |
| 27 May 2023 | 1. FC Köln v Bayern München | 1–2 |
| 24 Jan 2023 | Bayern München v 1. FC Köln | 1–1 |
| 15 Jan 2022 | 1. FC Köln v Bayern München | 0–4 |
| 22 Aug 2021 | Bayern München v 1. FC Köln | 3–2 |
Home and away
Bayern MünchenBayern München at home
Last 5: 3 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost
- DrawnBorussia Dortmund31 Oct 20262–2
- Won1. FC MagdeburgDFB Pokal28 Oct 20266–1
- DrawnArsenalUEFA Champions League21 Oct 20262–2
- WonRB Leipzig17 Oct 20266–1
- WonUnion Berlin18 Sep 20267–0
Bayern München: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 43 scored, 13 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 8 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 10 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
1. FC Köln1. FC Köln away
Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost
- DrawnUnion Berlin1 Nov 20261–1
- LostEintracht Frankfurt16 Oct 20260–1
- LostHamburger SV19 Sep 20261–2
- LostVfB Stuttgart4 Sep 20261–4
- WonWürzburger KickersDFB Pokal24 Aug 20262–1
1. FC Köln: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 10 scored, 21 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 8 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Bayern München- Last match
- 13 days before7 Nov 2026 · v FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga
- Next match
- Not known
1. FC Köln- Last match
- 19 days before1 Nov 2026 · v Union Berlin · Bundesliga
- Next match
- Not known
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 24 Aug 2025. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
1. FC Köln
| Score | 1. FC Köln | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Conceded first | 2 won, 8 drawn, 15 lost in 25 matches | 128 won, 199 drawn, 615 lost in 942 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 9 won, 8 drawn, 14 lost in 31 matches | 494 won, 366 drawn, 494 lost in 1354 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 3 won, 8 drawn, 13 lost in 24 matches | 326 won, 318 drawn, 326 lost in 970 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | 1. FC Köln | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 25 scored, 14 conceded (43) | 724 scored, 724 conceded (1992) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 16 scored, 7 conceded (22) | 271 scored, 302 conceded (743) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 33 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 19(league sides: 1,137 times, within 15 minutes 195, by full time 518)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 18 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Bayern München | 1. FC Köln | |
|---|---|---|
| 66Since 22 Nov 2024 | Matches with xG | 42Since 24 Aug 2025 |
| 187.30 | xG for | 64.53 |
| 215 | Goals scored | 58 |
| 68.61 | xG against | 67.98 |
| 69 | Goals conceded | 75 |
Bayern München
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2026 | v Borussia Dortmund | 4.53 | 0.77 | 2–2 |
| 25 Oct 2026 | at SC Freiburg | 2.91 | 1.01 | 3–1 |
| 17 Oct 2026 | v RB Leipzig | 3.48 | 0.90 | 6–1 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | at FC Augsburg | 4.96 | 2.37 | 2–2 |
| 18 Sep 2026 | v Union Berlin | 3.71 | 0.34 | 7–0 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | at SV Elversberg | 2.83 | 0.94 | 2–1 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at FC Schalke 04 | 1.94 | 0.21 | 0–0 |
| 28 Aug 2026 | v VfB Stuttgart | 4.06 | 0.79 | 5–1 |
| 16 May 2026 | v 1. FC Köln | 3.05 | 0.98 | 5–1 |
| 9 May 2026 | at VfL Wolfsburg | 1.85 | 3.04 | 1–0 |
1. FC Köln
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Nov 2026 | at Union Berlin | 1.22 | 0.91 | 1–1 |
| 24 Oct 2026 | v FC Schalke 04 | 1.29 | 0.66 | 0–0 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | at Eintracht Frankfurt | 0.82 | 1.84 | 0–1 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | v Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1.32 | 1.17 | 2–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Hamburger SV | 1.41 | 1.45 | 1–2 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Werder Bremen | 1.65 | 1.12 | 1–1 |
| 4 Sep 2026 | at VfB Stuttgart | 2.86 | 3.47 | 1–4 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v 1899 Hoffenheim | 1.95 | 1.88 | 3–2 |
| 16 May 2026 | at Bayern München | 0.98 | 3.05 | 1–5 |
| 10 May 2026 | v 1. FC Heidenheim | 1.17 | 1.36 | 1–3 |
This league season
Bundesliga matches since 28 Aug 2026.
| Bayern München | 1. FC Köln | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 of 9 | Matches with xG | 8 of 8 |
| — | Points in those matches | 9 |
| — | xPts | 11.27 |
| — | xG for | 12.52 |
| — | xG against | 12.50 |
Bayern München: — Too few matches with xG so far (8 of 9).
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Bayern München and 1. FC Köln
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Team news not available yet.
Updated 7 Nov 2026, 16:08 GMT
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