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Bundesliga
SC Freiburg
1–3Finished
Bayern München
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 16:30 GMTMatchday 7 · Europa-Park-Stadion, Freiburg

SC Freiburg v Bayern München match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 25 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Bayern München enter as 64% favourites against Freiburg, with the model projecting 2.49 expected goals for them against Freiburg's 1.26. Bayern are missing Musiala, Diaz and Buchmann through injury, though they still hold a clear advantage based on their quality.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 17%SC Freiburg win
  • 19%Draw
  • 64%Bayern München win

PRO analysis

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PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

SC FreiburgSC Freiburg

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

Bayern MünchenBayern München

Last 5: 2 wins, 3 draws, no defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • SC Freiburg won 30 of 43 matches in which they scored first, since 26 Oct 2024.
  • Bundesliga, since 18 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 148 of 197.
  • Bayern München won 8 of the last 10 meetings.
  • SC Freiburg unbeaten in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: SC Freiburg 1, draws 1, Bayern München 8

Goals: SC Freiburg 10, Bayern München 29

DateMatchScore
4 Apr 2026SC Freiburg v Bayern München2–3
22 Nov 2025Bayern München v SC Freiburg6–2
25 Jan 2025SC Freiburg v Bayern München1–2
1 Sep 2024Bayern München v SC Freiburg2–0
1 Mar 2024SC Freiburg v Bayern München2–2
8 Oct 2023Bayern München v SC Freiburg3–0
8 Apr 2023SC Freiburg v Bayern München0–1
4 Apr 2023Bayern München v SC FreiburgDFB Pokal1–2
16 Oct 2022Bayern München v SC Freiburg5–0
2 Apr 2022SC Freiburg v Bayern München1–4

Home and away

SC Freiburg

SC Freiburg at home

Last 5: 5 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonFK JablonecUEFA Europa Conference League15 Oct 20263–2
  • WonFC Schalke 0411 Oct 20262–1
  • WonBorussia Mönchengladbach12 Sep 20265–0
  • WonWerder Bremen30 Aug 20264–1
  • WonMotherwellUEFA Europa Conference League27 Aug 20264–1

SC Freiburg: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
25 scored, 13 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
8 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10
Bayern München

Bayern München away

Last 5: 2 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost

  • DrawnVikingUEFA Champions League13 Oct 20263–3
  • DrawnFC Augsburg10 Oct 20262–2
  • WonSV Elversberg13 Sep 20262–1
  • DrawnFC Schalke 045 Sep 20260–0
  • WonVfL OsnabrückDFB Pokal2 Sep 20264–1

Bayern München: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
24 scored, 11 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

SC Freiburg
Last match
3 days before22 Oct 2026 · v Monaco · UEFA Europa Conference League
Next match
3 days after28 Oct 2026 · v VfL Wolfsburg · DFB Pokal
Bayern München
Last match
4 days before21 Oct 2026 · v Arsenal · UEFA Champions League
Next match
3 days after28 Oct 2026 · v 1. FC Magdeburg · DFB Pokal

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 26 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

SC Freiburg

ScoreSC FreiburgLeague sides
Scored first30 won, 5 drawn, 8 lost in 43 matches608 won, 197 drawn, 127 lost in 932 matches
Conceded first7 won, 6 drawn, 19 lost in 32 matches127 won, 197 drawn, 608 lost in 932 matches
Level at half-time11 won, 12 drawn, 14 lost in 37 matches206 won, 292 drawn, 206 lost in 704 matches
Level after 60 minutes7 won, 12 drawn, 10 lost in 29 matches155 won, 290 drawn, 155 lost in 600 matches
Level after 70 minutes7 won, 12 drawn, 6 lost in 25 matches106 won, 298 drawn, 106 lost in 510 matches
Level after 80 minutes6 won, 15 drawn, 5 lost in 26 matches74 won, 342 drawn, 74 lost in 490 matches
Level after 15 minutes31 won, 16 drawn, 18 lost in 65 matches488 won, 362 drawn, 488 lost in 1338 matches
Level after 30 minutes19 won, 16 drawn, 18 lost in 53 matches322 won, 314 drawn, 322 lost in 958 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreSC FreiburgLeague sides
All matches25 scored, 31 conceded (82)711 scored, 711 conceded (1970)
When leading after 75 minutes8 scored, 13 conceded (30)298 scored, 266 conceded (735)
When level after 75 minutes8 scored, 6 conceded (28)147 scored, 147 conceded (500)
When trailing after 75 minutes9 scored, 12 conceded (24)266 scored, 298 conceded (735)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 41 times, equalised within 15 minutes 11, by full time 21(league sides: 1,126 times, within 15 minutes 194, by full time 513)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 18 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

SC FreiburgBayern München
67Since 26 Oct 2024Matches with xG67Since 27 Oct 2024
93.83xG for185.37
103Goals scored219
91.20xG against67.97
108Goals conceded66

SC Freiburg

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
SC Freiburg: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
18 Oct 2026at Bayer Leverkusen1.211.641–2
11 Oct 2026v FC Schalke 041.150.322–1
19 Sep 2026at Eintracht Frankfurt3.092.182–2
12 Sep 2026v Borussia Mönchengladbach2.600.195–0
5 Sep 2026at SC Paderborn 071.240.771–0
30 Aug 2026v Werder Bremen2.370.544–1
16 May 2026v RB Leipzig1.411.244–1
10 May 2026at Hamburger SV0.411.982–3
3 May 2026v VfL Wolfsburg0.940.821–1
26 Apr 2026at Borussia Dortmund0.763.370–4

Bayern München

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Bayern München: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
17 Oct 2026v RB Leipzig3.480.906–1
10 Oct 2026at FC Augsburg4.962.372–2
18 Sep 2026v Union Berlin3.710.347–0
13 Sep 2026at SV Elversberg2.830.942–1
5 Sep 2026at FC Schalke 041.940.210–0
28 Aug 2026v VfB Stuttgart4.060.795–1
16 May 2026v 1. FC Köln3.050.985–1
9 May 2026at VfL Wolfsburg1.853.041–0
2 May 2026v 1. FC Heidenheim2.312.593–3
25 Apr 2026at FSV Mainz 052.212.694–3

This league season

Bundesliga matches since 28 Aug 2026.

SC FreiburgBayern München
6 of 6Matches with xG6 of 6
13Points in those matches14
11.98xPts15.72
11.66xG for20.98
5.64xG against5.55

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: SC Freiburg and Bayern München

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • SC FreiburgSC Freiburg
    Doubtful
    Y. Engelhardt (Injury) · B. Yilmaz (Lacking Match Fitness)
  • Bayern MünchenBayern München
    Ruled out
    T. Buchmann (Knee Injury) · L. Diaz (Muscle Injury) · Kim Min-Jae (Knee Injury) · J. Kimmich (Personal Reasons) · J. Musiala (Muscle Injury) · M. Neuer (Foot Injury) · A. Pavlovic (Calf Injury)

Published 25 Oct 2026, 15:29 GMT · not changed since

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