FSV Mainz 05 v Bayern München · analysis and preview
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Most likely: Bayern München win
Bayern München are heavily favoured at Mainz, with the model giving them a 71% chance of victory. Mainz have lost four of their last five matches, while Bayern have won three of their last five. The model projects 3.93 expected goals overall, with Bayern creating a gap of 1.63 in their favour.
How the match could end · our estimate
- 13%FSV Mainz 05 win
- 16%Draw
- 71%Bayern München win
PRO analysis
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Form · newest first
FSV Mainz 05Last 5: 1 win, no draws, 4 defeats
- lost1–4at SV Elversberg
- lost0–2at VfL Bochum
- lost2–3v Werder Bremen
- won1–0at FC Schalke 04
- lost3–4v Bayer Leverkusen
Bayern MünchenLast 5: 3 wins, 2 draws, no defeats
- won2–0at Atletico Madrid
- drew2–2v Borussia Dortmund
- won6–1v 1. FC Magdeburg
- won3–1at SC Freiburg
- drew2–2v Arsenal
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- FSV Mainz 05 won 21 of 32 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Nov 2024.
- Bundesliga, since 18 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 149 of 200.
- Bayern München won 7 of the last 10 meetings.
- Bayern München unbeaten in their last 5 away games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
10 meetings: FSV Mainz 05 2, draws 1, Bayern München 7
Goals: FSV Mainz 05 14, Bayern München 36
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2026 | FSV Mainz 05 v Bayern München | 3–4 |
| 14 Dec 2025 | Bayern München v FSV Mainz 05 | 2–2 |
| 26 Apr 2025 | Bayern München v FSV Mainz 05 | 3–0 |
| 14 Dec 2024 | FSV Mainz 05 v Bayern München | 2–1 |
| 30 Oct 2024 | FSV Mainz 05 v Bayern MünchenDFB Pokal | 0–4 |
| 9 Mar 2024 | Bayern München v FSV Mainz 05 | 8–1 |
| 21 Oct 2023 | FSV Mainz 05 v Bayern München | 1–3 |
| 22 Apr 2023 | FSV Mainz 05 v Bayern München | 3–1 |
| 1 Feb 2023 | FSV Mainz 05 v Bayern MünchenDFB Pokal | 0–4 |
| 29 Oct 2022 | Bayern München v FSV Mainz 05 | 6–2 |
Home and away
FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05 at home
Last 5: 0 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost
- LostWerder Bremen24 Oct 20262–3
- LostBayer Leverkusen10 Oct 20263–4
- LostEintracht Frankfurt12 Sep 20261–3
- DrawnSC Paderborn 0729 Aug 20260–0
- LostUnion Berlin10 May 20261–3
FSV Mainz 05: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 15 scored, 22 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 8 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 7 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
Bayern MünchenBayern München away
Last 5: 3 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost
- WonAtletico MadridUEFA Champions League3 Nov 20262–0
- WonSC Freiburg25 Oct 20263–1
- DrawnVikingUEFA Champions League13 Oct 20263–3
- DrawnFC Augsburg10 Oct 20262–2
- WonSV Elversberg13 Sep 20262–1
Bayern München: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 24 scored, 12 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 7 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 7 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
FSV Mainz 05- Last match
- 8 days before30 Oct 2026 · v SV Elversberg · Bundesliga
- Next match
- Not known
Bayern München- Last match
- 4 days before3 Nov 2026 · v Atletico Madrid · UEFA Champions League
- Next match
- 13 days after20 Nov 2026 · v 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 9 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
FSV Mainz 05
| Score | FSV Mainz 05 | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 21 won, 7 drawn, 4 lost in 32 matches | 615 won, 199 drawn, 128 lost in 942 matches |
| Conceded first | 4 won, 7 drawn, 22 lost in 33 matches | 128 won, 199 drawn, 615 lost in 942 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 12 won, 7 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches | 271 won, 94 drawn, 56 lost in 421 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 12 won, 13 drawn, 14 lost in 39 matches | 494 won, 366 drawn, 494 lost in 1354 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 9 won, 10 drawn, 11 lost in 30 matches | 326 won, 318 drawn, 326 lost in 970 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | FSV Mainz 05 | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 21 scored, 29 conceded (68) | 724 scored, 724 conceded (1992) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 17 conceded (31) | 302 scored, 271 conceded (743) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 8 scored, 5 conceded (22) | 271 scored, 302 conceded (743) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 34 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 15(league sides: 1,137 times, within 15 minutes 195, by full time 518)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 18 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 9 Nov 2024
| FSV Mainz 05 | Bayern München | |
|---|---|---|
| 67 | Matches with xG | 67 |
| 111.87 | xG for | 188.13 |
| 104 | Goals scored | 216 |
| 103.87 | xG against | 68.69 |
| 100 | Goals conceded | 69 |
FSV Mainz 05
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct 2026 | at SV Elversberg | 1.23 | 1.02 | 1–4 |
| 24 Oct 2026 | v Werder Bremen | 1.73 | 2.58 | 2–3 |
| 17 Oct 2026 | at FC Schalke 04 | 1.53 | 0.33 | 1–0 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | v Bayer Leverkusen | 3.13 | 2.09 | 3–4 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2.82 | 3.24 | 4–3 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Eintracht Frankfurt | 2.12 | 2.04 | 1–3 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | at Hamburger SV | 2.77 | 0.19 | 5–0 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v SC Paderborn 07 | 1.23 | 0.73 | 0–0 |
| 16 May 2026 | at 1. FC Heidenheim | 3.71 | 2.53 | 2–0 |
| 10 May 2026 | v Union Berlin | 1.57 | 2.68 | 1–3 |
Bayern München
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2026 | v Borussia Dortmund | 4.53 | 0.77 | 2–2 |
| 25 Oct 2026 | at SC Freiburg | 2.91 | 1.01 | 3–1 |
| 17 Oct 2026 | v RB Leipzig | 3.48 | 0.90 | 6–1 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | at FC Augsburg | 4.96 | 2.37 | 2–2 |
| 18 Sep 2026 | v Union Berlin | 3.71 | 0.34 | 7–0 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | at SV Elversberg | 2.83 | 0.94 | 2–1 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at FC Schalke 04 | 1.94 | 0.21 | 0–0 |
| 28 Aug 2026 | v VfB Stuttgart | 4.06 | 0.79 | 5–1 |
| 16 May 2026 | v 1. FC Köln | 3.05 | 0.98 | 5–1 |
| 9 May 2026 | at VfL Wolfsburg | 1.85 | 3.04 | 1–0 |
This league season
Bundesliga matches since 28 Aug 2026.
| FSV Mainz 05 | Bayern München | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 of 8 | Matches with xG | 8 of 8 |
| 10 | Points in those matches | 18 |
| 13.87 | xPts | 20.99 |
| 16.56 | xG for | 28.42 |
| 12.22 | xG against | 7.33 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: FSV Mainz 05 and Bayern München
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Team news not available yet.
Updated 6 Nov 2026, 17:33 GMT
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