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Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen
2–4Finished
VfB Stuttgart
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 14:30 GMTMatchday 8 · BayArena, Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen v VfB Stuttgart match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 31 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Leverkusen hold a 54% chance of winning on the model, with a draw at 23%. The hosts' expected goals of 1.98 exceed Stuttgart's 1.28, a gap of 0.7 in Leverkusen's favour, but Leverkusen are missing six players including attackers Diaby, Ben Seghir and Terrier. Stuttgart arrive with three wins in their last four matches, including a 4-1 victory over Leverkusen in January.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 54%Bayer Leverkusen win
  • 23%Draw
  • 23%VfB Stuttgart win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen

Last 5: 4 wins, no draws, 1 defeat

  1. won5–2v 1. FC Nürnberg
  2. lost0–3at 1899 Hoffenheim
  3. won2–0at OFI
  4. won2–1v SC Freiburg
  5. won4–0at Lech Poznan
VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

  1. won1–0at SC Paderborn 07
  2. lost2–3v Borussia Mönchengladbach
  3. drew1–1v Atletico Madrid
  4. lost0–1at Hamburger SV
  5. won3–0at Slovan Bratislava

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Bayer Leverkusen won 41 of 57 matches in which they scored first, since 1 Nov 2024.
  • Bundesliga, since 18 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 148 of 197.
  • Bayer Leverkusen won 4 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Bayer Leverkusen unbeaten in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Bayer Leverkusen 4, draws 4, VfB Stuttgart 2

Goals: Bayer Leverkusen 19, VfB Stuttgart 18

DateMatchScore
9 May 2026VfB Stuttgart v Bayer Leverkusen3–1
10 Jan 2026Bayer Leverkusen v VfB Stuttgart1–4
16 Mar 2025VfB Stuttgart v Bayer Leverkusen3–4
1 Nov 2024Bayer Leverkusen v VfB Stuttgart0–0
27 Apr 2024Bayer Leverkusen v VfB Stuttgart2–2
6 Feb 2024Bayer Leverkusen v VfB StuttgartDFB Pokal3–2
10 Dec 2023VfB Stuttgart v Bayer Leverkusen1–1
14 May 2023VfB Stuttgart v Bayer Leverkusen1–1
12 Nov 2022Bayer Leverkusen v VfB Stuttgart2–0
12 Feb 2022Bayer Leverkusen v VfB Stuttgart4–2

Home and away

Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen at home

Last 5: 5 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost

  • Won1. FC NürnbergDFB Pokal28 Oct 20265–2
  • WonSC Freiburg18 Oct 20262–1
  • WonRB Leipzig20 Sep 20262–0
  • WonCeljeUEFA Europa League16 Sep 20262–0
  • WonUnion Berlin5 Sep 20264–0

Bayer Leverkusen: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
26 scored, 10 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
VfB Stuttgart

VfB Stuttgart away

Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost

  • WonSC Paderborn 07DFB Pokal28 Oct 20261–0
  • LostHamburger SV17 Oct 20260–1
  • WonSlovan BratislavaUEFA Champions League14 Oct 20263–0
  • WonSC Paderborn 0710 Oct 20262–0
  • Lost1899 Hoffenheim12 Sep 20261–2

VfB Stuttgart: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
21 scored, 24 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
8 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Bayer Leverkusen
Last match
3 days before28 Oct 2026 · v 1. FC Nürnberg · DFB Pokal
Next match
5 days after5 Nov 2026 · v Marseille · UEFA Europa League
VfB Stuttgart
Last match
3 days before28 Oct 2026 · v SC Paderborn 07 · DFB Pokal
Next match
3 days after3 Nov 2026 · v Galatasaray · UEFA Champions League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 1 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Bayer Leverkusen

ScoreBayer LeverkusenLeague sides
Scored first41 won, 11 drawn, 5 lost in 57 matches611 won, 197 drawn, 127 lost in 935 matches
Conceded first6 won, 7 drawn, 15 lost in 28 matches127 won, 197 drawn, 611 lost in 935 matches
2+ goals up at half-time19 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches204 won, 12 drawn, 3 lost in 219 matches
1 goal up at half-time12 won, 7 drawn, 1 lost in 20 matches269 won, 92 drawn, 55 lost in 416 matches
Level at half-time13 won, 12 drawn, 5 lost in 30 matches207 won, 292 drawn, 207 lost in 706 matches
2+ goals up after 60 minutes22 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 22 matches298 won, 14 drawn, 6 lost in 318 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes15 won, 9 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches249 won, 91 drawn, 29 lost in 369 matches
Level after 60 minutes9 won, 11 drawn, 4 lost in 24 matches156 won, 290 drawn, 156 lost in 602 matches
2+ goals up after 70 minutes27 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost in 28 matches333 won, 7 drawn, 3 lost in 343 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes14 won, 8 drawn, 0 lost in 22 matches273 won, 94 drawn, 22 lost in 389 matches
2+ goals up after 80 minutes29 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 29 matches360 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost in 363 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes15 won, 7 drawn, 0 lost in 22 matches288 won, 77 drawn, 15 lost in 380 matches
Level after 15 minutes26 won, 18 drawn, 11 lost in 55 matches490 won, 362 drawn, 490 lost in 1342 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes12 won, 7 drawn, 1 lost in 20 matches249 won, 82 drawn, 61 lost in 392 matches
Level after 30 minutes21 won, 14 drawn, 9 lost in 44 matches323 won, 314 drawn, 323 lost in 960 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreBayer LeverkusenLeague sides
All matches32 scored, 27 conceded (90)718 scored, 718 conceded (1976)
When leading after 75 minutes14 scored, 15 conceded (50)300 scored, 268 conceded (737)
When trailing after 75 minutes14 scored, 6 conceded (24)268 scored, 300 conceded (737)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 35 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 18(league sides: 1,128 times, within 15 minutes 194, by full time 513)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 18 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 1 Nov 2024

Bayer LeverkusenVfB Stuttgart
67Matches with xG67
119.59xG for121.33
136Goals scored128
83.19xG against102.94
87Goals conceded99

Bayer Leverkusen

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Bayer Leverkusen: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
25 Oct 2026at 1899 Hoffenheim0.573.460–3
18 Oct 2026v SC Freiburg1.641.212–1
10 Oct 2026at FSV Mainz 052.093.134–3
20 Sep 2026v RB Leipzig2.270.972–0
12 Sep 2026at FC Augsburg2.641.112–2
5 Sep 2026v Union Berlin3.110.394–0
29 Aug 2026at SV Elversberg1.881.272–3
16 May 2026v Hamburger SV3.271.791–1
9 May 2026at VfB Stuttgart0.543.041–3
2 May 2026v RB Leipzig4.421.174–1

VfB Stuttgart

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
VfB Stuttgart: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
23 Oct 2026v Borussia Mönchengladbach1.602.662–3
17 Oct 2026at Hamburger SV1.711.460–1
10 Oct 2026at SC Paderborn 072.471.962–0
19 Sep 2026v Borussia Dortmund0.871.340–1
12 Sep 2026at 1899 Hoffenheim2.162.761–2
4 Sep 2026v 1. FC Köln3.472.864–1
28 Aug 2026at Bayern München0.794.061–5
16 May 2026at Eintracht Frankfurt1.322.562–2
9 May 2026v Bayer Leverkusen3.040.543–1
2 May 2026at 1899 Hoffenheim1.572.473–3

This league season

Bundesliga matches since 28 Aug 2026.

Bayer LeverkusenVfB Stuttgart
7 of 7Matches with xG7 of 7
13Points in those matches6
11.73xPts8.03
14.20xG for13.07
11.54xG against17.10

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen
    Ruled out
    L. Bade (Head Injury) · E. Ben Seghir (Muscle Injury) · M. Diaby (Hamstring Injury) · G. Doue (Calf Injury) · K. Eichhorn (Illness) · C. Kofane (Muscle Injury) · M. Terrier (Muscle Injury)
  • VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
    Ruled out
    J. Diehl (Muscle Injury) · L. Sauer (Muscle Injury) · A. Stiller (Groin Injury) · T. Tomas (Muscle Injury) · J. Vagnoman (Muscle Injury) · D. Zagadou (Muscle Injury)

Published 31 Oct 2026, 13:27 GMT · not changed since

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