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Bundesliga
1899 Hoffenheim
2–3Finished
Hamburger SV
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 14:30 BST

1899 Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 10 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 36%1899 Hoffenheim win
  • 23%Draw
  • 41%Hamburger SV win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

1899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim

Last 5: 1 win, no draws, 4 defeats

Hamburger SVHamburger SV

Last 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • 1899 Hoffenheim won 19 of 26 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Hamburger SV avoided defeat in 7 of 21 matches in which their opponent scored first, since 24 Aug 2025.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 10 home league games.
  • Both teams scored in 7 of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

2 meetings: 1899 Hoffenheim 2, draws 0, Hamburger SV 0

Goals: 1899 Hoffenheim 6, Hamburger SV 2

DateMatchScore
25 Apr 2026Hamburger SV v 1899 Hoffenheim1–2
13 Dec 20251899 Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV4–1

Home and away

1899 Hoffenheim

1899 Hoffenheim at home

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonVfB Stuttgart12 Sep 20262–1
  • LostBorussia Dortmund5 Sep 20262–3
  • WonWerder Bremen9 May 20261–0
  • DrawnVfB Stuttgart2 May 20263–3
  • WonBorussia Dortmund18 Apr 20262–1

1899 Hoffenheim: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
18 scored, 13 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
Hamburger SV

Hamburger SV away

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostRB Leipzig13 Sep 20260–5
  • LostBorussia Dortmund29 Aug 20260–2
  • WonVerlDFB Pokal24 Aug 20263–0
  • DrawnBayer Leverkusen16 May 20261–1
  • WonEintracht Frankfurt2 May 20262–1

Hamburger SV: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
11 scored, 21 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

1899 Hoffenheim
Last match
20 days before20 Sep 2026 · v SC Paderborn 07 · Bundesliga
Next match
5 days after15 Oct 2026 · v Beşiktaş · UEFA Europa League
Hamburger SV
Last match
21 days before19 Sep 2026 · v 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga
Next match
7 days after17 Oct 2026 · v VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

1899 Hoffenheim

Since 19 Oct 2024

Score1899 HoffenheimLeague sides
Scored first19 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost in 26 matches591 won, 194 drawn, 125 lost in 910 matches
Conceded first7 won, 11 drawn, 25 lost in 43 matches125 won, 194 drawn, 591 lost in 910 matches
Level at half-time6 won, 13 drawn, 3 lost in 22 matches194 won, 286 drawn, 194 lost in 674 matches
Level after 15 minutes16 won, 12 drawn, 20 lost in 48 matches479 won, 354 drawn, 479 lost in 1312 matches
Level after 30 minutes10 won, 11 drawn, 9 lost in 30 matches314 won, 308 drawn, 314 lost in 936 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
Score1899 HoffenheimLeague sides
All matches20 scored, 30 conceded (73)691 scored, 691 conceded (1922)
When leading after 75 minutes8 scored, 9 conceded (27)293 scored, 258 conceded (722)
When trailing after 75 minutes9 scored, 15 conceded (29)258 scored, 293 conceded (722)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 52 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 28(league sides: 1,103 times, within 15 minutes 191, by full time 501)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Hamburger SV

Since 24 Aug 2025

ScoreHamburger SVLeague sides
Conceded first4 won, 3 drawn, 14 lost in 21 matches125 won, 194 drawn, 591 lost in 910 matches
Level after 15 minutes8 won, 11 drawn, 13 lost in 32 matches479 won, 354 drawn, 479 lost in 1312 matches
Level after 30 minutes6 won, 10 drawn, 5 lost in 21 matches314 won, 308 drawn, 314 lost in 936 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreHamburger SVLeague sides
All matches6 scored, 17 conceded (38)691 scored, 691 conceded (1922)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 25 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 11(league sides: 1,103 times, within 15 minutes 191, by full time 501)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 18 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

1899 HoffenheimHamburger SV
66Since 19 Oct 2024Matches with xG38Since 24 Aug 2025
98.70xG for45.27
108Goals scored42
101.45xG against69.54
114Goals conceded67

1899 Hoffenheim

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
1899 Hoffenheim: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
20 Sep 2026at SC Paderborn 071.500.681–3
12 Sep 2026v VfB Stuttgart2.762.162–1
5 Sep 2026v Borussia Dortmund1.172.022–3
29 Aug 2026at 1. FC Köln1.881.952–3
16 May 2026at Borussia Mönchengladbach1.621.200–4
9 May 2026v Werder Bremen1.521.071–0
2 May 2026v VfB Stuttgart2.471.573–3
25 Apr 2026at Hamburger SV1.451.372–1
18 Apr 2026v Borussia Dortmund2.250.702–1
10 Apr 2026at FC Augsburg0.991.932–2

Hamburger SV

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Hamburger SV: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
19 Sep 2026v 1. FC Köln1.451.412–1
13 Sep 2026at RB Leipzig1.102.430–5
6 Sep 2026v FSV Mainz 050.192.770–5
29 Aug 2026at Borussia Dortmund0.911.530–2
16 May 2026at Bayer Leverkusen1.793.271–1
10 May 2026v SC Freiburg1.980.413–2
2 May 2026at Eintracht Frankfurt0.620.652–1
25 Apr 2026v 1899 Hoffenheim1.371.451–2
18 Apr 2026at Werder Bremen0.571.741–3
12 Apr 2026at VfB Stuttgart0.713.480–4

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: 1899 Hoffenheim and Hamburger SV

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • 1899 Hoffenheim1899 HoffenheimBernardo (Achilles Tendon Injury) · A. Hajdari (Muscle Injury)
  • Hamburger SVHamburger SVP. Daka (Thigh Injury) · A. Gronbaek (Thigh Injury) · A. Rossing-Lelesiit (Ankle Injury) · M. Vuskovic (Doping) · Z. El Ouahdi (Illness)

Published 10 Oct 2026, 13:37 BST · not changed since

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