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Serie A
AC Milan
3–2Finished
Atalanta
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 17:00 BSTMatchday 7 · San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan

AC Milan v Atalanta match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 18 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Milan are slight favourites at 41% to win, though Atalanta's 30% chance reflects genuine competitiveness. The model expects 2.47 goals overall. Atalanta are severely hampered by injuries with five ruled out and three doubtful.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 41%AC Milan win
  • 29%Draw
  • 30%Atalanta win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

AC MilanAC Milan

Last 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat

AtalantaAtalanta

Last 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • AC Milan won 35 of 47 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Atalanta won 38 of 48 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
  • Atalanta won 5 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Both teams scored in 7 of Atalanta's last 10 away league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: AC Milan 2, draws 3, Atalanta 5

Goals: AC Milan 13, Atalanta 14

DateMatchScore
10 May 2026AC Milan v Atalanta2–3
28 Oct 2025Atalanta v AC Milan1–1
20 Apr 2025AC Milan v Atalanta0–1
6 Dec 2024Atalanta v AC Milan2–1
25 Feb 2024AC Milan v Atalanta1–1
10 Jan 2024AC Milan v AtalantaCoppa Italia1–2
9 Dec 2023Atalanta v AC Milan3–2
26 Feb 2023AC Milan v Atalanta2–0
21 Aug 2022Atalanta v AC Milan1–1
15 May 2022AC Milan v Atalanta2–0

Home and away

AC Milan

AC Milan at home

Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost

  • WonLecce20 Sep 20263–0
  • LostBenficaUEFA Europa League16 Sep 20260–2
  • WonVenezia28 Aug 20262–0
  • LostCagliari24 May 20261–2
  • LostAtalanta10 May 20262–3

AC Milan: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
13 scored, 12 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
4 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10
Atalanta

Atalanta away

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostJuventus20 Sep 20260–2
  • LostAS Roma5 Sep 20261–2
  • WonHapoel Tel AvivUEFA Europa Conference League27 Aug 20261–0
  • DrawnFiorentina22 May 20261–1
  • WonAC Milan10 May 20263–2

Atalanta: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
15 scored, 14 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

AC Milan
Last match
3 days before15 Oct 2026 · v Red Bull Salzburg · UEFA Europa League
Next match
4 days after22 Oct 2026 · v Bournemouth · UEFA Europa League
Atalanta
Last match
3 days before15 Oct 2026 · v Pafos · UEFA Europa Conference League
Next match
4 days after22 Oct 2026 · v Ajax · UEFA Europa Conference League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

AC Milan

Since 19 Oct 2024

ScoreAC MilanLeague sides
Scored first35 won, 10 drawn, 2 lost in 47 matches751 won, 236 drawn, 124 lost in 1111 matches
Conceded first9 won, 7 drawn, 18 lost in 34 matches124 won, 236 drawn, 751 lost in 1111 matches
1 goal up at half-time14 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost in 20 matches331 won, 121 drawn, 56 lost in 508 matches
Level at half-time22 won, 12 drawn, 8 lost in 42 matches319 won, 394 drawn, 319 lost in 1032 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes18 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 22 matches369 won, 111 drawn, 34 lost in 514 matches
Level after 60 minutes14 won, 13 drawn, 6 lost in 33 matches237 won, 406 drawn, 237 lost in 880 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes23 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost in 29 matches388 won, 94 drawn, 22 lost in 504 matches
Level after 70 minutes8 won, 13 drawn, 4 lost in 25 matches179 won, 448 drawn, 179 lost in 806 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes24 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 27 matches432 won, 84 drawn, 11 lost in 527 matches
Level after 80 minutes5 won, 16 drawn, 2 lost in 23 matches109 won, 486 drawn, 109 lost in 704 matches
Level after 15 minutes35 won, 14 drawn, 11 lost in 60 matches611 won, 534 drawn, 611 lost in 1756 matches
Level after 30 minutes33 won, 13 drawn, 7 lost in 53 matches446 won, 424 drawn, 446 lost in 1316 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreAC MilanLeague sides
All matches29 scored, 17 conceded (85)697 scored, 697 conceded (2412)
When leading after 75 minutes7 scored, 8 conceded (37)245 scored, 223 conceded (817)
When level after 75 minutes14 scored, 7 conceded (30)229 scored, 229 conceded (778)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 36 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 22(league sides: 1,238 times, within 15 minutes 182, by full time 550)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Atalanta

Since 20 Oct 2024

ScoreAtalantaLeague sides
Scored first38 won, 6 drawn, 4 lost in 48 matches751 won, 236 drawn, 124 lost in 1111 matches
Conceded first7 won, 10 drawn, 22 lost in 39 matches124 won, 236 drawn, 751 lost in 1111 matches
Level at half-time11 won, 17 drawn, 11 lost in 39 matches319 won, 394 drawn, 319 lost in 1032 matches
2+ goals up after 60 minutes21 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches232 won, 17 drawn, 3 lost in 252 matches
Level after 60 minutes13 won, 16 drawn, 7 lost in 36 matches237 won, 406 drawn, 237 lost in 880 matches
2+ goals up after 70 minutes22 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 22 matches285 won, 13 drawn, 1 lost in 299 matches
Level after 70 minutes9 won, 18 drawn, 3 lost in 30 matches179 won, 448 drawn, 179 lost in 806 matches
2+ goals up after 80 minutes23 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches323 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 327 matches
Level after 80 minutes10 won, 19 drawn, 2 lost in 31 matches109 won, 486 drawn, 109 lost in 704 matches
Level after 15 minutes26 won, 21 drawn, 19 lost in 66 matches611 won, 534 drawn, 611 lost in 1756 matches
Level after 30 minutes18 won, 18 drawn, 11 lost in 47 matches446 won, 424 drawn, 446 lost in 1316 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes4 won, 5 drawn, 11 lost in 20 matches58 won, 109 drawn, 290 lost in 457 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreAtalantaLeague sides
All matches37 scored, 17 conceded (95)697 scored, 697 conceded (2412)
When leading after 75 minutes12 scored, 7 conceded (36)245 scored, 223 conceded (817)
When level after 75 minutes14 scored, 7 conceded (32)229 scored, 229 conceded (778)
When trailing after 75 minutes11 scored, 3 conceded (27)223 scored, 245 conceded (817)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 44 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 23(league sides: 1,238 times, within 15 minutes 182, by full time 550)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

AC MilanAtalanta
75Since 19 Oct 2024Matches with xG75Since 20 Oct 2024
119.54xG for115.51
110Goals scored121
84.56xG against85.28
74Goals conceded68

AC Milan

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
AC Milan: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
11 Oct 2026at Sassuolo1.181.191–1
20 Sep 2026v Lecce2.190.213–0
12 Sep 2026at Lazio1.252.012–2
6 Sep 2026at Juventus0.111.591–1
28 Aug 2026v Venezia2.210.802–0
23 Aug 2026at Torino2.151.292–1
24 May 2026v Cagliari1.742.781–2
17 May 2026at Genoa1.751.322–1
10 May 2026v Atalanta2.211.382–3
3 May 2026at Sassuolo0.241.580–2

Atalanta

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Atalanta: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
12 Oct 2026v Venezia2.192.483–1
20 Sep 2026at Juventus0.601.310–2
12 Sep 2026v Cagliari1.741.321–2
5 Sep 2026at AS Roma0.702.971–2
31 Aug 2026v Bologna0.151.051–0
23 Aug 2026v Sassuolo0.882.702–1
22 May 2026at Fiorentina1.380.851–1
17 May 2026v Bologna0.760.690–1
10 May 2026at AC Milan1.382.213–2
2 May 2026v Genoa1.960.520–0

This league season

Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.

AC MilanAtalanta
6 of 6Matches with xG6 of 6
12Points in those matches9
9.39xPts4.94
9.09xG for6.26
7.09xG against11.83

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: AC Milan and Atalanta

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • AC MilanAC Milan
    Ruled out
    M. Gabbia (Thigh Injury) · A. Saelemaekers (Ankle Injury)
  • AtalantaAtalanta
    Ruled out
    E. Elmas (Red Card) · I. Hien (Muscle Injury) · F. Kessie (Calf Injury) · O. Kossounou (Thigh Injury) · G. Scalvini (Thigh Injury)
    Doubtful
    R. Bellanova (Thigh Injury) · G. Raspadori (Thigh Injury) · K. Sulemana (Knee Injury)

Published 18 Oct 2026, 15:57 BST · not changed since

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