AC Milan v Bologna match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Wed 28 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 50%AC Milan win
- 27%Draw
- 23%Bologna win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
AC MilanLast 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat
BolognaLast 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- AC Milan won 35 of 47 matches in which they scored first, since 29 Oct 2024.
- Bologna won 32 of 47 matches in which they scored first, since 29 Oct 2024.
- AC Milan won 5 of the last 10 meetings.
- Under 2.5 goals in 7 of Bologna's last 10 away league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
10 meetings: AC Milan 5, draws 3, Bologna 2
Goals: AC Milan 15, Bologna 7
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 3 Feb 2026 | Bologna v AC Milan | 0–3 |
| 14 Sep 2025 | AC Milan v Bologna | 1–0 |
| 14 May 2025 | AC Milan v BolognaCoppa Italia | 0–1 |
| 9 May 2025 | AC Milan v Bologna | 3–1 |
| 27 Feb 2025 | Bologna v AC Milan | 2–1 |
| 27 Jan 2024 | AC Milan v Bologna | 2–2 |
| 21 Aug 2023 | Bologna v AC Milan | 0–2 |
| 15 Apr 2023 | Bologna v AC Milan | 1–1 |
| 27 Aug 2022 | AC Milan v Bologna | 2–0 |
| 4 Apr 2022 | AC Milan v Bologna | 0–0 |
Home and away
AC MilanAC Milan at home
Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost
- WonAtalanta18 Oct 20263–2
- WonLecce20 Sep 20263–0
- LostBenficaUEFA Europa League16 Sep 20260–2
- WonVenezia28 Aug 20262–0
- LostCagliari24 May 20261–2
AC Milan: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 15 scored, 13 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 4 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
BolognaBologna away
Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost
- WonCagliari24 Oct 20262–0
- WonLecce11 Oct 20262–1
- LostNapoli13 Sep 20260–1
- LostAtalanta31 Aug 20260–1
- WonAtalanta17 May 20261–0
Bologna: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 12 scored, 8 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 3 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 3 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
AC Milan- Last match
- 3 days before25 Oct 2026 · v Udinese · Serie A
- Next match
- 3 days after31 Oct 2026 · v Inter · Serie A
Bologna- Last match
- 4 days before24 Oct 2026 · v Cagliari · Serie A
- Next match
- 3 days after31 Oct 2026 · v Monza · Serie A
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 29 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
AC Milan
| Score | AC Milan | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 35 won, 10 drawn, 2 lost in 47 matches | 763 won, 238 drawn, 127 lost in 1128 matches |
| Conceded first | 9 won, 7 drawn, 19 lost in 35 matches | 127 won, 238 drawn, 763 lost in 1128 matches |
| Level at half-time | 22 won, 12 drawn, 8 lost in 42 matches | 323 won, 394 drawn, 323 lost in 1040 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 18 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 22 matches | 374 won, 112 drawn, 35 lost in 521 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 13 won, 13 drawn, 6 lost in 32 matches | 239 won, 406 drawn, 239 lost in 884 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 21 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost in 27 matches | 392 won, 96 drawn, 24 lost in 512 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 8 won, 13 drawn, 4 lost in 25 matches | 179 won, 448 drawn, 179 lost in 806 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 23 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 26 matches | 434 won, 85 drawn, 13 lost in 532 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 5 won, 16 drawn, 2 lost in 23 matches | 109 won, 488 drawn, 109 lost in 706 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 35 won, 14 drawn, 11 lost in 60 matches | 623 won, 538 drawn, 623 lost in 1784 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 32 won, 13 drawn, 7 lost in 52 matches | 453 won, 424 drawn, 453 lost in 1330 matches |
| 1 goal down after 30 minutes | 4 won, 4 drawn, 12 lost in 20 matches | 59 won, 111 drawn, 295 lost in 465 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | AC Milan | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 29 scored, 19 conceded (86) | 714 scored, 714 conceded (2446) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 9 conceded (37) | 250 scored, 233 conceded (833) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 14 scored, 7 conceded (30) | 231 scored, 231 conceded (780) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 37 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 22(league sides: 1,261 times, within 15 minutes 187, by full time 561)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Bologna
| Score | Bologna | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 32 won, 10 drawn, 5 lost in 47 matches | 763 won, 238 drawn, 127 lost in 1128 matches |
| Conceded first | 8 won, 9 drawn, 25 lost in 42 matches | 127 won, 238 drawn, 763 lost in 1128 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 14 won, 7 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches | 337 won, 123 drawn, 57 lost in 517 matches |
| Level at half-time | 18 won, 13 drawn, 13 lost in 44 matches | 323 won, 394 drawn, 323 lost in 1040 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 19 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost in 25 matches | 374 won, 112 drawn, 35 lost in 521 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 11 won, 11 drawn, 10 lost in 32 matches | 239 won, 406 drawn, 239 lost in 884 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 15 won, 8 drawn, 2 lost in 25 matches | 392 won, 96 drawn, 24 lost in 512 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 11 won, 14 drawn, 5 lost in 30 matches | 179 won, 448 drawn, 179 lost in 806 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 18 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches | 434 won, 85 drawn, 13 lost in 532 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 7 won, 18 drawn, 6 lost in 31 matches | 109 won, 488 drawn, 109 lost in 706 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 31 won, 20 drawn, 24 lost in 75 matches | 623 won, 538 drawn, 623 lost in 1784 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 13 won, 6 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches | 295 won, 111 drawn, 59 lost in 465 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 22 won, 13 drawn, 19 lost in 54 matches | 453 won, 424 drawn, 453 lost in 1330 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Bologna | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 24 scored, 27 conceded (95) | 714 scored, 714 conceded (2446) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 11 scored, 14 conceded (42) | 250 scored, 233 conceded (833) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 8 scored, 6 conceded (28) | 231 scored, 231 conceded (780) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 5 scored, 7 conceded (25) | 233 scored, 250 conceded (833) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 47 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 24(league sides: 1,261 times, within 15 minutes 187, by full time 561)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 29 Oct 2024
| AC Milan | Bologna | |
|---|---|---|
| 76 | Matches with xG | 76 |
| 124.53 | xG for | 95.74 |
| 114 | Goals scored | 105 |
| 86.41 | xG against | 83.72 |
| 76 | Goals conceded | 92 |
AC Milan
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct 2026 | at Udinese | 3.59 | 0.55 | 2–0 |
| 18 Oct 2026 | v Atalanta | 2.58 | 1.74 | 3–2 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | at Sassuolo | 1.18 | 1.19 | 1–1 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | v Lecce | 2.19 | 0.21 | 3–0 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Lazio | 1.25 | 2.01 | 2–2 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | at Juventus | 0.11 | 1.59 | 1–1 |
| 28 Aug 2026 | v Venezia | 2.21 | 0.80 | 2–0 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | at Torino | 2.15 | 1.29 | 2–1 |
| 24 May 2026 | v Cagliari | 1.74 | 2.78 | 1–2 |
| 17 May 2026 | at Genoa | 1.75 | 1.32 | 2–1 |
Bologna
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2026 | at Cagliari | 1.64 | 0.44 | 2–0 |
| 17 Oct 2026 | v Inter | 1.09 | 3.22 | 1–3 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | at Lecce | 1.98 | 1.49 | 2–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Torino | 0.92 | 1.14 | 1–1 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | at Napoli | 0.29 | 1.19 | 0–1 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | v Sassuolo | 1.88 | 1.62 | 2–2 |
| 31 Aug 2026 | at Atalanta | 1.05 | 0.15 | 0–1 |
| 24 Aug 2026 | v Lazio | 1.78 | 0.63 | 0–1 |
| 23 May 2026 | v Inter | 1.40 | 1.78 | 3–3 |
| 17 May 2026 | at Atalanta | 0.69 | 0.76 | 1–0 |
This league season
Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.
| AC Milan | Bologna | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 of 8 | Matches with xG | 8 of 8 |
| 18 | Points in those matches | 8 |
| 14.05 | xPts | 11.97 |
| 15.26 | xG for | 10.63 |
| 9.38 | xG against | 9.88 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: AC Milan and Bologna
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- S. Chukwueze (Hip Injury) · M. Gabbia (Thigh Injury) · M. Gila (Ankle Injury) · R. Loftus-Cheek (Thigh Injury) · D. Moreira (Thigh Injury) · A. Rabiot (Calf Injury) · A. Saelemaekers (Ankle Injury)
- Ruled out
- E. Holm (Thigh Injury) · R. Orsolini (Thigh Injury) · R. Piccoli (Hamstring Injury)
- Doubtful
- J. Enem (Achilles Tendon Injury)
Published 28 Oct 2026, 16:28 GMT · not changed since
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