ADO Den Haag v PSV Eindhoven match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 17 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
PSV are heavy favourites with a 72% chance to win. The model expects PSV to generate nearly three times ADO's attacking threat, with an expected goals total of 3.82. ADO's recent form—four losses in five—leaves them in a difficult position against the division's stronger side.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 12%ADO Den Haag win
- 16%Draw
- 72%PSV Eindhoven win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
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Form · newest first
ADO Den HaagLast 5: no wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats
PSV EindhovenLast 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Eredivisie, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 159 of 217.
- PSV Eindhoven won 41 of 50 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- Over 2.5 goals in 7 of ADO Den Haag's last 10 home league games.
- Over 2.5 goals in 9 of PSV Eindhoven's last 10 away league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
1 meeting: ADO Den Haag 0, draws 0, PSV Eindhoven 1
Goals: ADO Den Haag 1, PSV Eindhoven 3
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Mar 2023 | PSV Eindhoven v ADO Den HaagKNVB Beker | 3–1 |
Home and away
ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag at home
Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost
- DrawnCambuur19 Sep 20261–1
- LostFortuna Sittard6 Sep 20262–3
- LostGroningen16 Aug 20261–4
- WonWaalwijkEerste Divisie17 Apr 20265–1
- WonFC EindhovenEerste Divisie6 Apr 20264–0
ADO Den Haag: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 23 scored, 15 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 7 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven away
Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost
- LostRB LeipzigUEFA Champions League13 Oct 20260–1
- LostTwente20 Sep 20262–3
- WonAjax5 Sep 20263–1
- WonUtrecht30 Aug 20266–1
- WonExcelsior15 Aug 20262–1
PSV Eindhoven: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 26 scored, 15 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 9 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 9 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
ADO Den Haag- Last match
- 6 days before11 Oct 2026 · v Telstar · Eredivisie
- Next match
- 7 days after24 Oct 2026 · v Heerenveen · Eredivisie
PSV Eindhoven- Last match
- 4 days before13 Oct 2026 · v RB Leipzig · UEFA Champions League
- Next match
- 3 days after20 Oct 2026 · v FC Porto · UEFA Champions League
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
PSV Eindhoven
| Score | PSV Eindhoven | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 41 won, 7 drawn, 2 lost in 50 matches | 643 won, 223 drawn, 116 lost in 982 matches |
| Conceded first | 16 won, 6 drawn, 16 lost in 38 matches | 116 won, 223 drawn, 643 lost in 982 matches |
| 2+ goals up at half-time | 23 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches | 183 won, 14 drawn, 2 lost in 199 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 20 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost in 23 matches | 295 won, 102 drawn, 50 lost in 447 matches |
| Level at half-time | 9 won, 6 drawn, 6 lost in 21 matches | 229 won, 296 drawn, 229 lost in 754 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 60 minutes | 31 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 31 matches | 280 won, 21 drawn, 1 lost in 302 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 18 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost in 22 matches | 286 won, 100 drawn, 27 lost in 413 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 70 minutes | 32 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 32 matches | 349 won, 11 drawn, 0 lost in 360 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 17 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches | 272 won, 93 drawn, 18 lost in 383 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 80 minutes | 35 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost in 36 matches | 378 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 381 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 18 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches | 303 won, 91 drawn, 4 lost in 398 matches |
| 1 goal up after 15 minutes | 18 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches | 198 won, 65 drawn, 48 lost in 311 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 29 won, 10 drawn, 13 lost in 52 matches | 479 won, 392 drawn, 479 lost in 1350 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 17 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost in 22 matches | 260 won, 98 drawn, 58 lost in 416 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 18 won, 10 drawn, 10 lost in 38 matches | 339 won, 312 drawn, 339 lost in 990 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | PSV Eindhoven | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 52 scored, 24 conceded (88) | 749 scored, 749 conceded (2046) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 32 scored, 15 conceded (54) | 332 scored, 236 conceded (761) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 12 scored, 5 conceded (20) | 236 scored, 332 conceded (761) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 47 times, equalised within 15 minutes 20, by full time 34(league sides: 1,167 times, within 15 minutes 199, by full time 537)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 19 Oct 2024
| ADO Den Haag | PSV Eindhoven | |
|---|---|---|
| — | Matches with xG | 67 |
| — | xG for | 157.03 |
| — | Goals scored | 199 |
| — | xG against | 75.70 |
| — | Goals conceded | 88 |
PSV Eindhoven
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2026 | v Heerenveen | 2.38 | 1.57 | 2–0 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | at Twente | 1.02 | 2.40 | 2–3 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | v Sparta Rotterdam | 3.75 | 2.29 | 4–1 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at Ajax | 2.55 | 1.99 | 3–1 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | at Utrecht | 3.58 | 0.30 | 6–1 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | v Groningen | 4.40 | 1.09 | 5–1 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | at Excelsior | 2.24 | 0.51 | 2–1 |
| 8 Aug 2026 | v Fortuna Sittard | 2.31 | 1.01 | 2–2 |
| 17 May 2026 | v Twente | 2.49 | 1.41 | 5–1 |
| 2 May 2026 | at Ajax | 1.80 | 0.95 | 2–2 |
PSV Eindhoven: 1 without xG left out
This league season
Eredivisie matches since 7 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| ADO Den Haag | PSV Eindhoven | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 of 8 | Matches with xG | 8 of 8 |
| — | Points in those matches | 19 |
| — | xPts | 16.54 |
| — | xG for | 22.23 |
| — | xG against | 11.16 |
ADO Den Haag: — Too few matches with xG so far (7 of 8).
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: ADO Den Haag and PSV Eindhoven
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- M. Hokke (Red Card) · L. Reischl (Groin Injury)
- Doubtful
- D. Barany (Thigh Injury)
- Ruled out
- S. Lammers (Lacking Match Fitness) · A. Nagalo (Injury) · S. Ouaissa (Muscle Injury) · R. Pepi (Injury) · A. Plea (Surgery) · J. Schouten (Knee Injury) · K. Sildillia (Surgery) · P. Wanner (Foot Injury)
Published 17 Oct 2026, 14:27 BST · not changed since
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