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Eredivisie
Ajax
1–0Finished
AZ Alkmaar
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 20:00 GMTMatchday 11 · Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam

Ajax v AZ Alkmaar match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 31 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Ajax are favoured by the model with a 46% chance of winning at home, though AZ Alkmaar have a 30% path to victory. Ajax have won three of five recent matches but will be without forwards Dolberg and Adingra. The model projects 3.18 expected goals total, with Ajax expected to generate 0.34 more than their visitors.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 46%Ajax win
  • 24%Draw
  • 30%AZ Alkmaar win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

AjaxAjax

Last 5: 3 wins, 2 draws, no defeats

  1. won2–1at Sparta Rotterdam
  2. won5–2at Groningen
  3. drew1–1v NEC Nijmegen
  4. drew2–2v Excelsior
  5. won5–1v Willem II
AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

  1. lost0–2v Twente
  2. won4–0at Ararat-Armenia
  3. drew2–2at Cambuur
  4. won2–1v Hapoel Beer Sheva
  5. lost0–2at Feyenoord

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Ajax won 35 of 47 matches in which they scored first, since 2 Nov 2024.
  • Eredivisie, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 160 of 220.
  • AZ Alkmaar won 7 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Ajax's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Ajax 0, draws 3, AZ Alkmaar 7

Goals: Ajax 6, AZ Alkmaar 21

DateMatchScore
8 Feb 2026AZ Alkmaar v Ajax1–1
14 Jan 2026AZ Alkmaar v AjaxKNVB Beker6–0
18 Oct 2025Ajax v AZ Alkmaar0–2
16 Mar 2025Ajax v AZ Alkmaar2–2
14 Jan 2025AZ Alkmaar v AjaxKNVB Beker2–0
8 Dec 2024AZ Alkmaar v Ajax2–1
25 Feb 2024AZ Alkmaar v Ajax2–0
8 Oct 2023Ajax v AZ Alkmaar1–2
6 May 2023Ajax v AZ Alkmaar0–0
18 Sep 2022AZ Alkmaar v Ajax2–1

Home and away

Ajax

Ajax at home

Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonAtalantaUEFA Europa Conference League22 Oct 20262–0
  • DrawnNEC Nijmegen10 Oct 20261–1
  • DrawnExcelsior19 Sep 20262–2
  • WonWillem II15 Sep 20265–1
  • LostPSV Eindhoven5 Sep 20261–3

Ajax: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
17 scored, 15 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
AZ Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar away

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • WonArarat-ArmeniaUEFA Europa League22 Oct 20264–0
  • DrawnCambuur18 Oct 20262–2
  • LostFeyenoord10 Oct 20260–2
  • LostSunderlandUEFA Europa League16 Sep 20260–1
  • WonHeerenveen6 Sep 20263–2

AZ Alkmaar: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
13 scored, 15 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Ajax
Last match
6 days before25 Oct 2026 · v Sparta Rotterdam · Eredivisie
Next match
5 days after5 Nov 2026 · v FC Midtjylland · UEFA Europa Conference League
AZ Alkmaar
Last match
6 days before25 Oct 2026 · v Twente · Eredivisie
Next match
5 days after5 Nov 2026 · v Juventus · UEFA Europa League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 2 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Ajax

ScoreAjaxLeague sides
Scored first35 won, 11 drawn, 1 lost in 47 matches651 won, 229 drawn, 120 lost in 1000 matches
Conceded first8 won, 9 drawn, 21 lost in 38 matches120 won, 229 drawn, 651 lost in 1000 matches
1 goal up at half-time16 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost in 22 matches298 won, 104 drawn, 53 lost in 455 matches
Level at half-time12 won, 13 drawn, 10 lost in 35 matches232 won, 302 drawn, 232 lost in 766 matches
2+ goals up after 60 minutes19 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches284 won, 21 drawn, 1 lost in 306 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes15 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches290 won, 104 drawn, 27 lost in 421 matches
Level after 60 minutes5 won, 14 drawn, 7 lost in 26 matches169 won, 290 drawn, 169 lost in 628 matches
2+ goals up after 70 minutes19 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches354 won, 11 drawn, 0 lost in 365 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes17 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches276 won, 97 drawn, 18 lost in 391 matches
Level after 70 minutes5 won, 16 drawn, 4 lost in 25 matches123 won, 324 drawn, 123 lost in 570 matches
2+ goals up after 80 minutes22 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 22 matches382 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 385 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes18 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches308 won, 95 drawn, 4 lost in 407 matches
Level after 80 minutes3 won, 17 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches77 won, 344 drawn, 77 lost in 498 matches
Level after 15 minutes30 won, 17 drawn, 15 lost in 62 matches488 won, 400 drawn, 488 lost in 1376 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes18 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 22 matches265 won, 100 drawn, 62 lost in 427 matches
Level after 30 minutes16 won, 15 drawn, 13 lost in 44 matches341 won, 320 drawn, 341 lost in 1002 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreAjaxLeague sides
All matches34 scored, 29 conceded (88)762 scored, 762 conceded (2082)
When leading after 75 minutes15 scored, 11 conceded (42)334 scored, 243 conceded (774)
When level after 75 minutes12 scored, 9 conceded (25)185 scored, 185 conceded (534)
When trailing after 75 minutes7 scored, 9 conceded (21)243 scored, 334 conceded (774)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 45 times, equalised within 15 minutes 10, by full time 27(league sides: 1,189 times, within 15 minutes 200, by full time 550)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 2 Nov 2024

AjaxAZ Alkmaar
69Matches with xG69
125.52xG for124.29
139Goals scored122
83.34xG against80.48
77Goals conceded93

Ajax

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Ajax: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
25 Oct 2026at Sparta Rotterdam1.370.852–1
18 Oct 2026at Groningen3.042.295–2
10 Oct 2026v NEC Nijmegen1.781.051–1
19 Sep 2026v Excelsior2.510.822–2
15 Sep 2026v Willem II3.791.585–1
12 Sep 2026at Fortuna Sittard4.130.715–1
5 Sep 2026v PSV Eindhoven1.992.551–3
30 Aug 2026at Telstar2.131.134–0
16 Aug 2026v Heerenveen2.001.362–2
9 Aug 2026at PEC Zwolle1.540.592–0

AZ Alkmaar

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
AZ Alkmaar: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
25 Oct 2026v Twente1.242.040–2
18 Oct 2026at Cambuur1.561.532–2
10 Oct 2026at Feyenoord0.772.300–2
20 Sep 2026v Telstar2.350.101–0
11 Sep 2026v Willem II2.480.931–1
6 Sep 2026at Heerenveen1.041.483–2
29 Aug 2026v GO Ahead Eagles2.371.665–2
22 Aug 2026at Fortuna Sittard4.350.442–0
15 Aug 2026at Utrecht2.100.914–1
8 Aug 2026v ADO Den Haag2.670.952–0

Ajax: 2 without xG left outAZ Alkmaar: 1 without xG left out

This league season

Eredivisie matches since 7 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

AjaxAZ Alkmaar
10 of 10Matches with xG10 of 10
21Points in those matches20
20.00xPts18.13
24.28xG for20.93
12.93xG against12.34

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Ajax and AZ Alkmaar

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • AjaxAjax
    Ruled out
    S. Adingra (Lacking Match Fitness) · Caio Henrique (Thigh Injury) · K. Dolberg (Knee Injury) · O. Edvardsen (Inactive) · A. Gaaei (Injury)
    Doubtful
    S. Berghuis (Injury)
  • AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar
    Ruled out
    J. Hornkamp (Injury) · A. Oufkir (Yellow Cards) · S. Resink (Knee Injury) · K. Smit (Injury) · J. Zoet (Inactive)
    Doubtful
    W. Goes (Inactive)

Published 31 Oct 2026, 19:03 GMT · not changed since

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