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Eredivisie
Ajax
1–1Finished
NEC Nijmegen
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 20:00 BST

Ajax v NEC Nijmegen match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 10 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 74%Ajax win
  • 17%Draw
  • 9%NEC Nijmegen win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

AjaxAjax

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen

Last 5: no wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Ajax won 36 of 47 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
  • NEC Nijmegen won 24 of 33 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Ajax won 5 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 8 of Ajax's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Ajax 5, draws 4, NEC Nijmegen 1

Goals: Ajax 17, NEC Nijmegen 11

DateMatchScore
21 Feb 2026Ajax v NEC Nijmegen1–1
20 Dec 2025NEC Nijmegen v Ajax2–2
11 May 2025Ajax v NEC Nijmegen0–3
1 Dec 2024NEC Nijmegen v Ajax1–2
18 Feb 2024Ajax v NEC Nijmegen2–2
3 Dec 2023NEC Nijmegen v Ajax1–2
5 Mar 2023Ajax v NEC Nijmegen1–0
8 Jan 2023NEC Nijmegen v Ajax1–1
23 Apr 2022NEC Nijmegen v Ajax0–1
14 Aug 2021Ajax v NEC Nijmegen5–0

Home and away

Ajax

Ajax at home

Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost

  • DrawnExcelsior19 Sep 20262–2
  • WonWillem II15 Sep 20265–1
  • LostPSV Eindhoven5 Sep 20261–3
  • WonFC SionUEFA Europa Conference League27 Aug 20265–3
  • DrawnHeerenveen16 Aug 20262–2

Ajax: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
20 scored, 14 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
8 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
NEC Nijmegen

NEC Nijmegen away

Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost

  • LostJuventusUEFA Europa League17 Sep 20260–5
  • LostCambuur12 Sep 20260–3
  • WonPEC Zwolle29 Aug 20263–1
  • LostBodo/GlimtUEFA Champions League25 Aug 20260–3
  • WonWillem II15 Aug 20264–1

NEC Nijmegen: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
19 scored, 13 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Ajax
Last match
21 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Excelsior · Eredivisie
Next match
5 days after15 Oct 2026 · v HNK Hajduk Split · UEFA Europa Conference League
NEC Nijmegen
Last match
20 days before20 Sep 2026 · v GO Ahead Eagles · Eredivisie
Next match
5 days after15 Oct 2026 · v Levski Sofia · UEFA Europa League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Ajax

Since 20 Oct 2024

ScoreAjaxLeague sides
Scored first36 won, 10 drawn, 1 lost in 47 matches639 won, 220 drawn, 116 lost in 975 matches
Conceded first9 won, 9 drawn, 21 lost in 39 matches116 won, 220 drawn, 639 lost in 975 matches
1 goal up at half-time17 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches293 won, 102 drawn, 50 lost in 445 matches
Level at half-time13 won, 12 drawn, 10 lost in 35 matches227 won, 290 drawn, 227 lost in 744 matches
2+ goals up after 60 minutes19 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches279 won, 21 drawn, 1 lost in 301 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes16 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches285 won, 100 drawn, 27 lost in 412 matches
Level after 60 minutes6 won, 13 drawn, 7 lost in 26 matches163 won, 280 drawn, 163 lost in 606 matches
2+ goals up after 70 minutes19 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches347 won, 11 drawn, 0 lost in 358 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes19 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches272 won, 93 drawn, 18 lost in 383 matches
Level after 70 minutes5 won, 15 drawn, 4 lost in 24 matches118 won, 314 drawn, 118 lost in 550 matches
2+ goals up after 80 minutes23 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches376 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 379 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes18 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches302 won, 91 drawn, 4 lost in 397 matches
Level after 80 minutes4 won, 16 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches73 won, 334 drawn, 73 lost in 480 matches
Level after 15 minutes29 won, 17 drawn, 15 lost in 61 matches477 won, 392 drawn, 477 lost in 1346 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes17 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches258 won, 96 drawn, 58 lost in 412 matches
Level after 30 minutes17 won, 14 drawn, 13 lost in 44 matches337 won, 310 drawn, 337 lost in 984 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreAjaxLeague sides
All matches36 scored, 29 conceded (89)744 scored, 744 conceded (2032)
When leading after 75 minutes17 scored, 11 conceded (44)328 scored, 236 conceded (758)
When level after 75 minutes12 scored, 9 conceded (24)180 scored, 180 conceded (516)
When trailing after 75 minutes7 scored, 9 conceded (21)236 scored, 328 conceded (758)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 47 times, equalised within 15 minutes 12, by full time 29(league sides: 1,158 times, within 15 minutes 195, by full time 531)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

NEC Nijmegen

Since 19 Oct 2024

ScoreNEC NijmegenLeague sides
Scored first24 won, 7 drawn, 2 lost in 33 matches639 won, 220 drawn, 116 lost in 975 matches
Conceded first4 won, 13 drawn, 21 lost in 38 matches116 won, 220 drawn, 639 lost in 975 matches
Level at half-time10 won, 13 drawn, 5 lost in 28 matches227 won, 290 drawn, 227 lost in 744 matches
Level after 60 minutes9 won, 13 drawn, 3 lost in 25 matches163 won, 280 drawn, 163 lost in 606 matches
Level after 70 minutes5 won, 15 drawn, 2 lost in 22 matches118 won, 314 drawn, 118 lost in 550 matches
Level after 15 minutes17 won, 16 drawn, 16 lost in 49 matches477 won, 392 drawn, 477 lost in 1346 matches
Level after 30 minutes13 won, 12 drawn, 13 lost in 38 matches337 won, 310 drawn, 337 lost in 984 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreNEC NijmegenLeague sides
All matches34 scored, 16 conceded (73)744 scored, 744 conceded (2032)
When leading after 75 minutes13 scored, 6 conceded (25)328 scored, 236 conceded (758)
When level after 75 minutes7 scored, 4 conceded (20)180 scored, 180 conceded (516)
When trailing after 75 minutes14 scored, 6 conceded (28)236 scored, 328 conceded (758)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 51 times, equalised within 15 minutes 13, by full time 30(league sides: 1,158 times, within 15 minutes 195, by full time 531)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

AjaxNEC Nijmegen
69Since 20 Oct 2024Matches with xG67Since 19 Oct 2024
126.14xG for113.48
138Goals scored133
82.10xG against95.29
76Goals conceded103

Ajax

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Ajax: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
19 Sep 2026v Excelsior2.510.822–2
15 Sep 2026v Willem II3.791.585–1
12 Sep 2026at Fortuna Sittard4.130.715–1
5 Sep 2026v PSV Eindhoven1.992.551–3
30 Aug 2026at Telstar2.131.134–0
16 Aug 2026v Heerenveen2.001.362–2
9 Aug 2026at PEC Zwolle1.540.592–0
21 May 2026v Groningen1.830.162–0
17 May 2026at Heerenveen1.861.610–0
2 May 2026v PSV Eindhoven0.951.802–2

NEC Nijmegen

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
NEC Nijmegen: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
20 Sep 2026v GO Ahead Eagles1.042.311–1
12 Sep 2026at Cambuur0.933.120–3
8 Sep 2026v Excelsior1.361.812–2
5 Sep 2026v Feyenoord0.741.111–3
29 Aug 2026at PEC Zwolle1.942.033–1
15 Aug 2026at Willem II2.991.434–1
8 Aug 2026v Telstar2.151.661–2
17 May 2026v GO Ahead Eagles4.440.322–1
10 May 2026at Groningen1.081.561–2
2 May 2026v Telstar2.111.221–1

Ajax: 2 without xG left outNEC Nijmegen: 1 without xG left out

This league season

Eredivisie matches since 7 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

AjaxNEC Nijmegen
7 of 7Matches with xG7 of 7
14Points in those matches8
14.60xPts8.40
18.09xG for11.15
8.74xG against13.47

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Ajax and NEC Nijmegen

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • AjaxAjaxS. Adingra (Foot Injury) · D. Blind (Back Injury) · A. Bouwman (Knock) · K. Dolberg (Knee Injury) · Caio Henrique (Injury)
  • NEC NijmegenNEC NijmegenD. Fonville (Ankle Injury) · A. Kaplan (Knee Injury) · E. Mor (Groin Injury)

Published 10 Oct 2026, 18:12 BST · not changed since

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