Alanyaspor v Kocaelispor match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Fri 23 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Alanyaspor are favoured at home with a 45% chance of winning. The model expects 2.27 goals and Alanyaspor to create a gap of 0.35 in expected goals. Kocaelispor arrive without key players including their main striker.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 45%Alanyaspor win
- 30%Draw
- 25%Kocaelispor win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
AlanyasporLast 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat
KocaelisporLast 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Alanyaspor won 18 of 34 matches in which they scored first, since 27 Oct 2024.
- Kocaelispor avoided defeat in 7 of 24 matches in which their opponent scored first, since 11 Aug 2025.
- Under 2.5 goals in 7 of Kocaelispor's last 10 away league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
2 meetings: Alanyaspor 1, draws 0, Kocaelispor 1
Goals: Alanyaspor 5, Kocaelispor 2
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Mar 2026 | Alanyaspor v Kocaelispor | 5–0 |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Kocaelispor v Alanyaspor | 2–0 |
Home and away
AlanyasporAlanyaspor at home
Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost
- DrawnErzurumspor FK10 Oct 20260–0
- DrawnGöztepe12 Sep 20262–2
- WonBeşiktaş23 Aug 20261–0
- WonKayserispor9 May 20263–1
- LostSamsunspor27 Apr 20262–3
Alanyaspor: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 17 scored, 10 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
KocaelisporKocaelispor away
Last 5: 1 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost
- LostBeşiktaş11 Oct 20261–2
- LostGalatasaray13 Sep 20260–1
- WonKonyaspor29 Aug 20262–1
- LostBaşakşehir16 Aug 20260–2
- LostAntalyaspor17 May 20260–1
Kocaelispor: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 6 scored, 15 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 4 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 3 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Alanyaspor- Last match
- 6 days before17 Oct 2026 · v Fenerbahçe · Süper Lig
- Next match
- 4 days after27 Oct 2026 · v 12 Bingölspor · Türkiye Kupası
Kocaelispor- Last match
- 5 days before18 Oct 2026 · v Göztepe · Süper Lig
- Next match
- 4 days after27 Oct 2026 · v Mazıdağı Fosfatspor · Türkiye Kupası
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Alanyaspor
Since 27 Oct 2024
| Score | Alanyaspor | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 18 won, 8 drawn, 8 lost in 34 matches | 671 won, 198 drawn, 146 lost in 1015 matches |
| Conceded first | 2 won, 9 drawn, 16 lost in 27 matches | 146 won, 198 drawn, 671 lost in 1015 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 9 won, 7 drawn, 6 lost in 22 matches | 315 won, 109 drawn, 55 lost in 479 matches |
| Level at half-time | 8 won, 12 drawn, 8 lost in 28 matches | 273 won, 326 drawn, 273 lost in 872 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 5 won, 15 drawn, 8 lost in 28 matches | 199 won, 338 drawn, 199 lost in 736 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 4 won, 19 drawn, 8 lost in 31 matches | 159 won, 380 drawn, 159 lost in 698 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 3 won, 21 drawn, 4 lost in 28 matches | 119 won, 416 drawn, 119 lost in 654 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 15 won, 21 drawn, 19 lost in 55 matches | 549 won, 460 drawn, 549 lost in 1558 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 14 won, 15 drawn, 12 lost in 41 matches | 397 won, 356 drawn, 397 lost in 1150 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Alanyaspor | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 19 scored, 18 conceded (69) | 746 scored, 746 conceded (2200) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 5 scored, 8 conceded (30) | 192 scored, 192 conceded (670) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 6 conceded (22) | 260 scored, 294 conceded (765) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 35 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 16(league sides: 1,171 times, within 15 minutes 204, by full time 523)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Kocaelispor
Since 11 Aug 2025
| Score | Kocaelispor | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Conceded first | 1 won, 6 drawn, 17 lost in 24 matches | 146 won, 198 drawn, 671 lost in 1015 matches |
| Level at half-time | 4 won, 8 drawn, 11 lost in 23 matches | 273 won, 326 drawn, 273 lost in 872 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 12 won, 8 drawn, 15 lost in 35 matches | 549 won, 460 drawn, 549 lost in 1558 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 8 won, 8 drawn, 13 lost in 29 matches | 397 won, 356 drawn, 397 lost in 1150 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Kocaelispor | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 11 scored, 14 conceded (42) | 746 scored, 746 conceded (2200) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 22 times, equalised within 15 minutes 2, by full time 8(league sides: 1,171 times, within 15 minutes 204, by full time 523)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Alanyaspor | Kocaelispor | |
|---|---|---|
| 69Since 27 Oct 2024 | Matches with xG | 42Since 11 Aug 2025 |
| 77.97 | xG for | 39.44 |
| 84 | Goals scored | 35 |
| 93.83 | xG against | 44.82 |
| 88 | Goals conceded | 46 |
Alanyaspor
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 2026 | at Fenerbahçe | 0.99 | 3.77 | 0–3 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | v Erzurumspor FK | 0.98 | 1.69 | 0–0 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Çorum FK | 1.18 | 1.11 | 2–1 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Göztepe | 1.72 | 1.79 | 2–2 |
| 7 Sep 2026 | at Rizespor | 2.07 | 1.28 | 1–0 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | at Eyüpspor | 0.66 | 1.48 | 1–2 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | v Beşiktaş | 0.54 | 0.74 | 1–0 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | at Gaziantep FK | 1.25 | 1.28 | 1–1 |
| 16 May 2026 | at Fatih Karagümrük | 0.74 | 1.78 | 1–2 |
| 9 May 2026 | v Kayserispor | 2.05 | 1.88 | 3–1 |
Kocaelispor
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2026 | v Göztepe | 1.50 | 0.94 | 1–2 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | at Beşiktaş | 1.65 | 2.21 | 1–2 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Gaziantep FK | 1.30 | 1.03 | 2–0 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | at Galatasaray | 0.82 | 2.26 | 0–1 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | v Samsunspor | 1.59 | 1.74 | 1–0 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Konyaspor | 0.76 | 0.85 | 2–1 |
| 24 Aug 2026 | v Amed | 1.31 | 0.60 | 2–0 |
| 16 Aug 2026 | at Başakşehir | 0.43 | 1.96 | 0–2 |
| 17 May 2026 | at Antalyaspor | 0.33 | 1.35 | 0–1 |
| 9 May 2026 | v Fatih Karagümrük | 0.34 | 0.31 | 0–1 |
This league season
Süper Lig matches since 14 Aug 2026.
| Alanyaspor | Kocaelispor | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 of 8 | Matches with xG | 8 of 8 |
| 12 | Points in those matches | 12 |
| 9.00 | xPts | 9.79 |
| 9.39 | xG for | 9.36 |
| 13.14 | xG against | 11.59 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Doubtful
- Bikoue (Inactive) · P. Fernandes (Injury)
- Ruled out
- M. Haidara (Muscle Injury) · A. Jovanovic (Coach's decision) · B. Petkovic (Hamstring Injury) · T. Zoukrou (Muscle Injury)
Published 23 Oct 2026, 16:58 BST · not changed since
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